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БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN

БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN. Sociodemographic Study Preliminary results. Study objectives. To examine marital, reproductive, and migratory behavior and attitudes of young people

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БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN

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  1. БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕMARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN Sociodemographic Study Preliminary results UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  2. Study objectives • To examine marital, reproductive, and migratory behavior and attitudes of young people • To test a new conceptual model and a new instrument • Pilot project focusing on selected parts of Northern Kyrgyzstan • Long-term goal: develop and implement a national-level longitudinal system of migration investigation and monitoring in Kyrgyzstan UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  3. Funding and implementing agencies • Funding: Grant from the National Council for East European and Eurasian Research, USA • Arizona State University, USA • Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, Kyrgyzstan • With technical support of the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  4. Basic conceptual Model UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  5. Study design • Representative survey in three parts of northern Kyrgyzstan • Bishkek • Issyk-Kul oblast • Chui oblast • 1535 respondents • Aged 18-29 • Usual residents of selected households • Equal number of men and women UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  6. Sampling design • Five separate sampling domains: • Bishkek city (32 clusters): 512 respondents • Chui, urban (13 clusters in 6 towns): 204 respondents • Chui, rural (19 clusters=19 villages): 308 respondents • Issyk-Kul, urban (13 clusters in 4 towns): 204 respondents • Issyk-Kul, rural (19 clusters in 17 villages): 308 respondents • In all domains: the probability of selection was proportional to cluster’s size • In addition, in rural domains: the probability of selection was inversely proportional to relative size of ethnic Kyrgyz. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  7. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  8. Sampling design (cont.) • Random selection of households within each domain • Random selection of eligible respondent, regardless of sex, within each household • Additional households drawn if no eligible men and women; selected individuals unavailable or unwilling to participate; the quota for one of the genders is filled. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  9. Survey Instrument Sections: • Household characteristics • Respondent’s characteristics • Marriage and spouse’s characteristics • Health and reproductive behavior • Migration: past and future • Social networks • Community life participation • Political participation and attitudes • Family and gender attitudes UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  10. Survey Implementation • Conducted in respondent’s households • Conducted in Kyrgyz (25%) and Russian (75%) • Average duration: ~ 45 minutes • Each respondent received a symbolic monetary compensation • Each respondent was entered into a lottery to win a mobile phone (1 or 2 prizes) UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  11. Main sociodemographic characteristics • Mean age: 23.1 (23.4 women; 22.8 men) • The average household size: 4.0 • 13% of respondents were heads of their HHs: (men 17.4%, women 8.5%) • Ethnicity: Kyrgyz 56.9% and non-Kyrgyz (mainly ethnic Russians) 43.1% • Language spoken at home: Kyrgyz 49.7% • Religion: Muslims 63% • Education: at least some higher education, 38.2% (40.9% women and 35.5% men); complete higher education: 15.2% • Economic conditions: 73% running water; 27.2% of households had an automobile • Worked for income in past 4 weeks: 58% men and 33.3% women • In marital union (ЗАГС or “civil union”) 33.1% (22.5% of men and 43.3% of women) • Officially married (through ЗАГС): 26.5% (17.8% of men and 34.9% of women) • Among those not in union: 91.7% wanted to get married one day. • Children: 70.9% didn’t have any children; Average number of children 0.44. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  12. Reproductive preferences UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  13. Reproductive Preferences (cont.) UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  14. Migration plans and intentions UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  15. Migration plans and intentions (cont.) UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  16. Migration plans and intentions (cont.) UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  17. Migration plans and intentions (cont.) UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  18. Summary of multivariate regression analyses 1. Influence of migration intention on intention to get married within two years: • Firm plan to move have no significant effect on wishes to get married soon, • Wishing to move increases the likelihood of wishing to get married soon 2. Influence of migration intention on intention to have a child within two years: • Having a firm plan to move decreases the odds of wanting to have a child soon. • Having a tentative desire to move does not affect the odds of wanting to have a child soon. • Results are similar regardless of destination 3. Influence of migration intention on modern contraceptive use: • Firm plan has no effect • Migration preference a strong positive effect • No effects if we look at foreign destinations only UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  19. Summary of multivariate regression analyses (cont.) 4. Influence of marital status and number of children on having firm plans to move anywhere: • marital status does not affect plans to move • having at least one child significantly decreases the likelihood of having firm plans to move out of the community of residence. • Similar patterns for firm plans to move abroad, but less convincing statistically UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

  20. Further directions • More complex and sensitive multivariate analysis of both past migration and future intentions. • Presentation and publication of results • Making the database freely and widely available to users worldwide • Designing a nationwide longitudinal study UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

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