Addicted to Risk

1. Addicted to Risk Rick Tinker, Julia Carpenter Assessment and Advice Section The Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) is the Australian Government's primary authority on radiation protection and nuclear safety.

2. Subconscious Fast Parallel Automatic Effortless Slow-learning Conscious Slow Serial Controlled Effort filled Rule governed Flexible Subconscious Risk Perception Subconscious instinct overwhelms our conscious reasoning

4. Subconscious Fast Parallel Automatic Effortless Slow-learning Conscious Slow Serial Controlled Effort filled Rule governed Flexible Subconscious Risk Perception Subconscious instinct overwhelms our conscious reasoning

5. Subconscious risk perception – How does it work • Flight or fight response • Mental short cuts for decision making (heuristics and representative biases) • Psychological characteristics that shape how circumstances feel (voluntary versus involuntary) • Social influences (media, community, the need for a sense of belonging)

6. https://www.ehstoday.com/safety-leadership/impact-subconscious-risk-based-decision-makinghttps://www.ehstoday.com/safety-leadership/impact-subconscious-risk-based-decision-making • Subconscious risk perception happens within seconds • Only then can we begin to reason – consciously think. • Reasoning only carries so much weight when we make choices.

8. Question How can we present information about risk in a way that helps people make evidence-based decisions?

9. Hazard Identification https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/A12B57E41EC9F326CA257BF0001F9E7D/$File/Environmental-health-Risk-Assessment.pdf • A national approach to environmental health risk assessment • Provides a general methodology that can be applied to a range of hazards (including radiation) • Very detailed (200+ pages) covering all aspects of risk assessment in the context of health protection

10. RISK ASSESSMENT A bridge between risk assessment and risk treatment Risk characterisation is the step where you bring all the information together (qualitative and quantitative) and reach an overall conclusion Dose-response assessment Exposure Assessment Hazard Identification Control Alternatives Control Decision Acceptable Risk RISK MANAGEMENT RISK CHARACTERISATION

11. Risk characterization can be judged by the extent to which it achieves the principles

12. Elements of a Risk Characterisation Bias and Perspective Research needs Key information Context Scientific assumptions Strengths and weaknesses Policy choices Key conclusions variability Alternatives considered uncertainty And many more! Because key findings differ for each risk assessment, key elements will vary Professional judgment is necessary The process needs to be flexible enough to allow decision makers to consider all the evidence and information provided It is important to be evidence-based in decision making, noting that there will be many different types of evidence and information

13. Radiation risks considered by ARPANSA health and environmental radiation risks A work program is underway at ARPANSA to: • Review current approaches to risk management across all radiation types and exposure scenarios • Define how ARPANSA approaches risk characterisation • Produce a public document outlining how ARPANSA assesses and makes decisions about radiation risks • Propose risk treatment options with a focus on communication

14. Risk Characterisation for the Public Social factors Dose Assessment Probability of occurrence • The end result should be an understanding of the relative urgency of the risk, and the underlying factors that drive that urgency • But how do we communicate the complexity behind the conclusion? • Do we need to? Uncertainties and assumptions Health Impacts Political factors Credibility of information sources Benefits of the exposure Experience and credibility of experts Economic considerations Attributability

15. CASE STUDY: Public exposure to solar UV • Well established evidence that 99% of melanoma cancer of the skin is caused by exposure to UV radiation in sunlight. • Two in three Australians will be diagnosed with skin cancer by the time they reach 70 years of age. • Solar UV radiation is the best source of vitamin D and promotes healthy living. • Sensible sun protection does not put people at risk of vitamin D deficiency.

16. What is our Confidence Level in the Risk Assessment?

17. Current Message There is well established evidence that exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) from the sun can lead to skin cancer. Sunscreens are an effective method of sun protection when used with a combination of other protective measures.

19. CASE STUDY: Planned Nuclear Powered Warship visit to an Australian Port • Allied Nuclear Powered Warships (NPWs) visit Australian ports on a semi-regular basis • Approximately 75% submarines, 25% carriers • 0-6 visits per year over the last 10 years • responsibility for the conduct of these procedures is shared between Australian Government and state/territory Governments • Previous risk assessment and characterisation for the decision maker has resulted in a large number of risk mitigation actions being taken routinely for a NPW visit • Port selection (depth, distance from population centres) • Independent monitoring

20. What is our Confidence Level in the Risk Assessment?

21. Normal Operation: Very confident that there will be no radiation exposure to the public Accident Scenario: Confident that existing mitigation measures will protect the public, however some members of the public may receive a low dose of ionising radiation Overall Assessment: Low risk to the public

22. THANK YOU • CONTACT ARPANSA • Email:info@arpansa.gov.au • Website: www.arpansa.gov.au Telephone: +61 3 9433 2211 Freecall 1800 022 333 General Fax: +61 3 9432 1835