Metro Vision 2035

1. Metro Vision 2035 Regional Growth Scenarios

2. Scenario Workshop

3. Scenario Purpose • Educational process • “what if” analysis • What happens to some of Metro Vision’s key assumptions • Food for thought • To guide the Board and its committees as they craft the 2035 plan

4. 2030 Urban Growth Boundary/Area and 2004 Urban Area 2004 Urbanized Area 2030 UGB/A

5. Urban Centers Mixed Use Centers Activity Centers Regional Corridors

7. Themes Discussed • Land use variations • Transportation variations • Pricing variations

8. Measures • Long list • Measures selected • Measures not selected

9. 12 Measures • Transportation • Vehicle miles traveled • Transit Trips • Vehicle hours of delay • Access to Transit (EJ)

10. 12 Measures • Land Use • Additional land used for development • Households and jobs near transit • Public infrastructure costs • Population and jobs in urban centers • Population and jobs in the Denver CBD

11. 12 Measures • Environmental • Air pollutant emissions • Water demand • Wastewater treatment impact

12. Scenario Descriptions

13. Policy dimensions Urban Footprint Compact Expanded Highways Transportation Investment Priorities Transit

14. The Scenarios • Six scenarios covering key parts of this “policy space”

15. Policy dimensions Urban Footprint Compact Expanded Highways D A B C Transportation Investment Priorities E F Transit

16. Scenario B: Metro Vision Trend Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban footprint (2030) Urban footprint (2035) Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas Roads Transit

17. Scenario A: Compact Urban Footprint No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban footprint (2030 and 2035) No change to roads and transit in 2030 plan Roads Transit

18. Scenario C: Expanded Urban Footprint Larger increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban footprint (2030) Urban footprint (2035) Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas Roads Transit

19. Scenario D: Metro Vision Trend Plus Highways Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban footprint (2030) Urban footprint (2035) Add highway improvements to 2030 transportation plan Roads Highway improvements

20. Transit Transit Improvements Scenario E: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035) Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan Roads

21. Transit Scenario F: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit Plus Pricing No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035) Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan Roads Transit Improvements Double driving costs and make transit free

22. Emerging Themes

23. Themes/messages • Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and congestion will increase substantially compared to today • Adding 1.56 M more people! • Some scenario outcomes can only be achieved with additional transportation investment

24. Themes/Messages • Transportation performance improves in scenarios with more compact development • More development in urban centers • More transit use • More bike/pedestrian trips • Shorter trip lengths for autos

25. Themes/Messages • Expanding the region’s “footprint” without new transportation funding is problematic • Development extends to the fringes • Have only 2030 RTP to accommodate this growth • The growth overloads key facilities • C-470, I-70 East, I-25 North, etc.

26. Themes/Messages • We can reduce delay if we invest additional funding in highway infrastructure • This will also increase total Vehicle Miles Traveled

27. Themes/Messages • If the growth area is constrained, investing in more transit capacity does not make a significant difference (A vs. E) • The 2030 RTP transit network already serves the 2030 UGB/A well • Lines and services added in E serve smaller markets • The return on this additional investment is marginal

28. Themes/Messages • Pricing (Scenario F) results in the most significant decrease in hours of delay • Pricing increases transit ridership substantially by changing behavior • But at what price?

29. Policy dimensions Urban Footprint Compact Expanded Highways D A B C Transportation Investment Priorities E F Transit

30. Data Descriptions

31. Transportation • Vehicle miles traveled • Transit Trips • Vehicle hours of delay • Access to Transit (EJ)

32. Environmental • Air pollutant emissions • Water demand • Wastewater treatment impact

33. Land Use • Additional land used for development • Households and jobs near transit • Public infrastructure costs • Population and jobs in urban centers • Population and jobs in the Denver CBD

34. Transportation Land Use Better Worse Environment

35. Scenario B: Metro Vision Trend Transportation Land Use B Environment B Metro Vision Trend

36. Scenario A: Compact Urban Footprint Transportation Land Use A B A Compact Urban Footprint Environment B Metro Vision Trend

37. Scenario C: Expanded Urban Footprint Transportation Land Use C B C Expanded Urban Footprint Environment B Metro Vision Trend

38. Scenario D: Metro Vision Trend + Highways Transportation Land Use B D D Metro Vision Trend + Highways Environment B Metro Vision Trend

39. Scenario E: Compact Urban Footprint + Transit Transportation E Land Use A B E Compact Urban Footprint +Transit A Compact Urban Footprint Environment B Metro Vision Trend

40. Scenario F: Compact Urban Footprint + Transit + Pricing Transportation F E Land Use A B F Compact Urban Footprint + Transit + Pricing E Compact Urban Footprint + Transit A Compact Urban Footprint Environment B Metro Vision Trend

41. Questions?

42. Next Steps

43. Plan Process • 2035 Update Committee • UGB target • Criteria for UGB consideration • TAC • Transportation facility criteria • Draft plan in June • Board action in December