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Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010

Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010. Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC) . Business Optimism Index. The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community

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Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010

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  1. Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

  2. Business Optimism Index • The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community • Provides insight into the short-term outlook of businesses on sales, profit growth, investment etc • Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning businesses

  3. Survey • Sample of business units representing Kuwait’s economy was selected • 500 business owners and senior executives across business units were surveyed • Survey conducted during December 2009 for the 1st quarter of 2010 • Respondents are asked questions about their expectations on relevant business parameters • Survey also captures respondent feedback on current business conditions

  4. World Economic Outlook Real GDP Growth Q3 2009 (yoy) Global Manufacturing PMI December 2009 Source: IMF Source: J P Morgan • Global economic recovery led by emerging markets such as India and China • US economy expanded while Euro zone & UK posted negative growth, if at a lesser annual rate of decline • Global Manufacturing PMI indicates renewed expansion across all major economies

  5. Kuwait’s economy • Kuwait’s GDP to register a growth rate of 3.2% after contracting by 1.6% in 2009; Non-oil GDP to grow at 4.1% in 2010 • Recovery in the oil prices has helped Kuwait post a budget surplus of US$ 22 bn for the first eight months of the fiscal year GDP Outlook Source: IMF Source: OPEC

  6. Business Optimism Indices : Q1 2010 • Five out of six business parameters in the non-hydrocarbon sector register improvement in Q1 • Expectations particularly optimistic regarding New Orders • Selling price outlook within the hydrocarbon sector improves after two quarters amidst higher oil prices

  7. Business Optimism Indices Trend

  8. Manufacturing sector Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Manufacturing Sector GDP 13% • Global Manufacturing PMI at 44 month high in December showing renewed expansion • In Kuwait, average optimism levels roughly unchanged from previous quarter • A majority of businesses foresee improved order book status during Q1 while 48% of companies expect higher profits

  9. Construction sector Construction Sector Residential construction outlook 2008-13 Compound annual growth (%) • Global construction sector currently driven by infrastructure spending as commercial property undergoes correction • In Kuwait, optimism regarding New Orders, Level of Selling Prices, Number of Employees and Level of Stock parameters improve substantially in Q1 2010

  10. Trade, restaurants & hotels sector Trade, restaurants & hotels sector • Global trade & hospitality sector is expected to pick up in 2010, but recovery will be slow as consumers confidence remains weak • In Kuwait, the sales and profitability outlook has weakened in Q1 2010 while order book expectations and hiring plans have firmed

  11. Transport & communications sector Transport & communications sector GDP • Global transport & communications sector expected to witness gradual recovery in 2010 • In Kuwait, expectations of higher sales lift profitability outlook • Meanwhile, a surge in new orders is leading to increased hiring

  12. Finance, insurance, real estate & business services sector Finance & Business Services Global Services Purchasing Managers' Index • The Global Services PMI recovery has leveled out following extended recovery • Kuwait’s service sector bullish about demand with increased optimism regarding Volume of Sales and New Orders

  13. Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon sector OPEC Monthly Basket Price Business Optimism Indices Source: OPEC • Half of the oil & gas respondents expect selling prices to improve in Q1 • 60% anticipate a rise in employee count

  14. Other Key Highlights • Availability of finance and direct costs cited as leading business concerns by the non-hydrocarbon sector • 41% of the business units freeze investment outlays while 38% to invest in business expansion • 45% of the business units in the non-hydrocarbon sector expect borrowing conditions to remain unchanged • Project delays identified as the chief concern by 69% of the units in the hydrocarbon sector

  15. Conclusion • Business outlook for Q1 2010 improves across all sectors with improved global economic condition • Optimism in transport & communications sector stronger as international trade outlook is expected to improve further in 2010 • Improving liquidity in the international financial markets lifts optimism levels in Finance & business services sector • Hydrocarbon sector optimistic on the back of strong oil prices and improving demand conditions

  16. THANK YOU

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