Possible Parallels: Profound changes facilitating democracy and sustainable ecosystem

1. Possible Parallels:Profound changes facilitating democracy and sustainable ecosystem Laszlo Solyom, President of the Republic of Hungary

2. The Warning from the Club of Rome, 1972 Original Report Today Industrial Output Population Pollution Resources Food

3. Industrial Production

5. CO2 Concentration

6. Surprise: Arctic sea ice

7. Tipping pointsJ. Schellnhuber, in Steffen, et al., Challenges of a Changing Earth, 2002

8. HOW FAR CAN WE GO?

9. Planetary boundaries: Nature, September 24th, 2009 Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, John Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley

10. Coral reefs... … are ancient ecosystems; … harbour 1.5 - 2 million species, quarter of all marine fish species; … confer a net economic value of approximately $29.8 billion per year: - tourism & recreation $9.6 billion; - coastal protection $9 billion; - fisheries $5.7 billion; - biodiversity $5.5 billion Feed about 1 billion people per year

11. Changing ocean pH (1) pCO2 = 280 ppmv 1870 2000- 2009 pCO2 = 375 ppmv Source: Guinotte, et al., Coral Reefs 22, 551-558, 2003

12. CO2 Concentration

13. Changing ocean pH (1) pCO2 = 280 ppmv 1870 2000- 2009 pCO2 = 375 ppmv Source: Guinotte, et al., Coral Reefs 22, 551-558, 2003

14. Changing ocean pH (2) 2020- 2029 pCO2 = 517 ppmv Source: Guinotte, et al., Coral Reefs 22, 551-558, 2003

15. Off the green – shall we get back? Rockström, J. et al., 2009. Nature, in press.

16. Two ways of social behaviour • Humankind will wait until its living space collapses • Humankind will try to adapt to changes or avert preventable damage

17. Parallels between the transition and the ecological crisis managment • Total, fundamental alteration of highly complex systems • Crisis management in a peaceful manner • Comprehensive transformation in a short time (in a single year Europe changed incredibly)

18. The political regime change introduced a well-known model Political institutions had to be altered→ “a change in hardware “ There is no model we can copy in ecology There is no request of new institutions, but a new way of thinking → “a new software” Differences

19. The method of change • absence of violence • minimization of costs • fundamental goals • and a road map • Real transformation and not just to “reform” the old systems, through adaptations ad infinitum

20. Roundtable negotiations between the communist party and the opposition groups and non-governmental organizations, leading to an agreement on the rules of the political regime change Climate conferences between developed, emerging, and developing countries, try to agree on a fair way of reducing CO2 emissions Series of talks between parties with opposing interests

21. had to convince people to accept concepts such as protecting personal data and ending capital punishment will have to convince society to accept restrictions on consumption and other measures which will put an end to certain privileged situations An active and conscious elite

22. The economic reserves of the communist system were exhausted→ Some communist groups supporting the reform had recognized that change was to their benefit as well We will not be able to continue as before because of the collapse in resources→ Unsustainable industries has found opportunities through green industry Look for an alternative

23. Goals about which we cannot compromise • technical type - for example reducing greenhouse gas emissions • or ideological - such as biodiversity • and fairness

24. Politics→ a new constitution, establishment of political parties free elections Climate change affecting biodiversity, poverty, and migration The change has to concentrate on a key component

25. Political innovations in Hungary • The right to a healthy environment • Declaration that the state must not reduce the existing level of nature protection • 2007 parliament adopted a law on the rights of future generations and elected the “guardian of future generations”.

26. The “Guardian of Future Generations” • investigates all matters that can impact on the living conditions and choices of future generations • can put forward recommendations to the authorities • publishes the results of investigations • covers strategic issues

27. The only hope are people themselves!