Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models

1. Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models Mediated Modeling 1/16/07

2. The goal is to develop an understanding of the potential and limitations of Mediated Modeling as a tool for the involvement of stakeholders in complex decision-making.

3. By the end of this course, you learned: • To recognize situations in which Mediated Modeling could be an appropriate tool and discuss ways to evaluate Mediated Modeling as a tool to support Decision-Making • To describe the phases of a Mediated Modeling process in generic terms and discuss the various options available to overcome obstacles during a Mediated Modeling process • To practice a real or hypothetical Mediated Modeling process on a class-wide or personal topic. • Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative model building in a stakeholder setting to support decision-making

4. Deliverables • Reflections - 1 hour • Causal diagrams, STELLA model, poster - 2 hours • Review of paper and facilitation - 2 hours • Class project - 4 hours • It is expected that about 9 hours per week are allocated to this course, not counting the 3 hours of class.

5. Reflections • 1. Describe the experience objectively (CONCEPTS) • 2. Analyze the experience(s) in terms of academic enhancement, personal growth and civic engagement (EXPERIENCE) • 3. Articulate what you learned (SYNTHESIS) • The topic of the reflection for 1/20/07 is: What are your personal learning objectives?

7. Grading • Weekly reflections: 10% • Weekly causal loop diagram, STELLA model and poster 30% • One chapter/paper review: 10% • Overall participation: 20% • Contribution to class project or separate paper: 30% • Final exam? • Grading rubrics?

8. Learning objective 1 To recognize situations in which Mediated Modeling could be an appropriate tool and discuss ways to evaluate Mediated Modeling as a tool to support Decision-Making

10. Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well informed just to be undecided about them. Laurence J. Peter

11. Characteristics of a Mediated Model Constructed by stakeholders (about 10 - 30) Modeling for understanding rather than prediction Uses software that is easy to understand (f.ex. STELLA) Models are flexible and easily adjustable over time Synthesis

12. All models are wrong,some models are useful. Deming

13. Modeling…… as a group process • Raising the SHARED level of UNDERSTANDING about a complex system and its dynamics • CONSENSUS BUILDING about the current worldview, a preferred future and the way to reach it

14. D e g r e e o f U n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e S y s t e m D y n a m i c s M E D I A T E D M O D E L I N G E X P E R T M O D E L I N G T y p i c a l r T y p i c a l r e s u l t : S p e c i a l i z e d m o d e l w h o s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n n e v e r g e t s i m p l e m e n t e d b e c a u s e t h e y l a c k s t a k e h o l d e r s u p p o r t S T A T U S Q U O M E D I A T E D D I S C U S S I O N T y p i c a l r e s u l t : T y p i c a l r e s u l t : C o n f r o n t a t i o n a l d e b a t e C o n s e n s u s o n g o a l s o r a n d n o i m p r o v e m e n t p r o b l e m s b u t n o h e l p o n h o w t o a c h i e v e t h e g o a l s o r s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s + e s u l t : C o n s e n s u s o n b o t h p r o b l e m s / g o a l s a n d p r o c e s s - l e a d i n g t o e f f e c t i v e a n d i m p l e m e n t a b l e p o l i c i e s + Degree of Consensus among Stakeholders - -

15. The antidote to fragmentation is shared understanding and shared commitment. Collective intelligence, collective skill – synchronizing energy for empowered action.

16. Result = System x Acceptance

18. Wickedness requires a systematic inquiry, a commitment to asking why

19. Listening cycle Listen Guess Validate Write/draw Source: Conklin, 2006

20. Requirements for a Mediated Modeling process • Complex issue • Stakeholders open to communication

21. Role of the mediated modeler • Provide the space for group learning to take place • Facilitate the discussion through “listening cycles” • Simultaneous interpret discussion and build model • Remind of vision and questions to be addressed • Synchronize understanding of the past (structure, definitions, order of magnitude) • Maintain creative tension • Establish the milestones for the process, be flexible about how to reach them

22. Specific characteristics of Mediated Modeling that contribute to making it work • Participants focus on a “shared space” • Gets people to think “out of the box” in a new language focused on the whole system • Keep participants involved and contributing to a group effort • Structures the discussion and the thinking in new ways • Forces the group to become specific and explicit and to define and quantify assumptions and views each step of the way.

23. Generic workshop process(30-50 hours) Introduction: Group, software, ground rules, envisioning, problem definition and systems boundaries Qualitative model: Sector definition, stocks and flows, feed back loops Quantitative model: Quantification, data gathering, time lags Simulation: Testing, sensitivity analysis Consensus based conclusions & action program

24. Applications • Policy-making & policy support • Joint fact finding • Integrating a large research program • Summarizing a fragmented program • Initiating (scoping) a group model building process • Complementary tool • Community outreach program • Atelier courses • Conflict resolution

25. Learning objective 2 To describe the phases of a Mediated Modeling process in generic terms and discuss the various options available to overcome obstacles during a Mediated Modeling process

26. MM steps • Preparation - identifying stakeholders, setting the stakeholder group/stakeholder management, introductory interviews, prepare preliminary model • Workshops - introduction, problem definition, qualitative model building, quantitative model building, data management, simulation, testing, conclusions • Follow up - tutorial, written material, model, evaluation interview/surveys

27. Paper/Chapter review • Review a paper of choice; on 1/23: • Teamwork in group model building, by Richardson and Andersen • MM textbook, Chapter 4, page 59-97

28. Learning objective 3 To practice a real or hypothetical Mediated Modeling process on a class-wide or personal topic.

29. Ponds and Lakes in VT • ANR will invite minimum 5 stakeholders; VT Federation for Lakes and Ponds, Hunters, Anglers, Trappers of VT, Realtor, legislators, Water Panel. • A context for data gathering effort on shorelines. • Sensitive issue: 1970’s shoreline act instituted and quickly repealed

30. Open Space • Organize the MM teamwork: Process coaching, recording, model building, data management. • Law of Two Feet: if you are not contributing to a team it is your responsibility to find (or start) a productive team.

31. Learning objective 4 Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative model building in a stakeholder setting to support decision-making

32. Linear thinking A B C Example?

33. What is a system? A group of interacting, interrelated, or independent components that form a complex and unified whole.

34. System Characteristics • A system’s parts must all be present for the system to carry out its purpose optimally. • A system’s parts must be arranged in a specific way for the system to carry out its purpose • Systems have specific purposes within larger systems • Systems maintain their stability through fluctuations and adjustments • Systems have feedback.

35. Levels of Understanding

36. Questions you would ask

37. Systems Thinking A B C Example?

38. Assignments • Personal objectives in reflections • Causal loop diagram on topic of choice • Download STELLA • Read MM book chapter 4, page 59-97 • Read “Teamwork in group model building” • Project preparation