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Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models

Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models. Mediated Modeling 2/20/07. To accomplish. Reflections Where can you apply what you are learning in this class in other areas of your life? How could the recommendations from the ANR group be different, focusing on different time scales?

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Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models

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  1. Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models Mediated Modeling 2/20/07

  2. To accomplish • Reflections Where can you apply what you are learning in this class in other areas of your life? How could the recommendations from the ANR group be different, focusing on different time scales? • Literature review and facilitated discussion • Causal diagrams: small group comparison, Archetypes, STELLA questions, draft project proposal • ANR project & team work

  3. Learning objective 1&2 & 3 To recognize situations in which Mediated Modeling could be an appropriate tool. To describe the phases and Mediated Modeling as a tool to support Decision-Making. To discuss ways to evaluate MM. Through the ANR project.

  4. Learning objective 4 Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative model building in a stakeholder setting to support decision-making ---> discuss causal loop diagrams ---> experimenting with STELLA ---> draft project proposal

  5. Archetypes • Exponential growth • Exponential decline • Oscillation • Overshoot and collapse • S-shaped curve

  6. System thinking principles • Big picture • Balancing Short Term and Long term • Recognizing dynamics of complex and interdependent nature of systems • Both measurable and no-measurable • We each influence systems and are being influenced by them (unintended consequences, assumptions, values & believes)

  7. Process ideas • How are the stakeholders doing? • How is the connection with the modeling team work? • Do stakeholders know where to find STELLA? Do they need assistance? Do they want the software? • Sharing process notes with team, not participants • Process coach, count the number of completed listening cycles? • Organize the seating next workshop, using the name tags? • Are we thinking about result measurements? • Publishing a paper? What is the role of a process coach and what are the guidelines/steps? • Millie

  8. Content / notes • Notes helpful for modelers/process coach? • Check-in if tasks are completed before next workshop? • Volunteering note taker?

  9. Modeling • Update - How about a brief model description to the participants? Units? List of data requirements? • Scaling issue; how are the answer different, depending on different time scales? • Focusing on solutions before the underlying system is clear?

  10. Example Goal To develop viable recommendations toward the prevention of shoreline degradation in VT. Recommendations can be developed in the form of information requirements or policy suggestions.

  11. Example of “questions the model aims to address”: 1. How is shoreline degradation/protection monitored and measured? 2. What are the most important human activities causing shoreline degradation? 3. How do the long-term consequences present themselves ecologically and economically over time? How are they linked? 4. Based on the system discussed and modeled, what are viable recommendations to achieve a mutually desired outcome?

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