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21-24 July, 2015

Assessing the Relationship between Operational Performance and Affordability throughout the Life Cycle. 21-24 July, 2015. Tom Collipi Technical Fellow. Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15. Abstract.

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21-24 July, 2015

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  1. Assessing the Relationship between Operational Performance and Affordability throughout the Life Cycle 21-24 July, 2015 Tom Collipi Technical Fellow Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  2. Abstract Today’s financial and political environment is one of shrinking defense budgets in the face of constant or increasing threats. As such, there is a need to increase the efficiency and productivity of defense spending. In response to this, the US Department of Defense has established affordability targets, such as: average unit acquisition cost and average annual operating and support (O&S) cost. These key performance parameters are tracked and reported at each of the procurement milestone decision points and throughout the weapon system’s life cycle. Until recently, comprehensive modeling and simulation tools have not been available to support required trade studies or analyses that forecast the relationship between operational performance (i.e., Availability, Launch Schedule Effectiveness, Effective Time on Station, etc.), support resources (i.e., spares, support equipment, facilities, and manpower) requirements, and overall O&S costs. Using an object oriented simulation engine, material availability can be modeled using the planned operational utilization, the inherent R&M characteristics, the scheduled maintenance requirements and the necessary support resources. This technique establishes a closed loop system – where a specific set of support resources result in operational capability (material availability, mission capable rate, break rate, fix rate, departure reliability, etc.). The cost of these resources can then be estimated to form the foundation of the overall O&S cost. This presentation offers a methodology to model this complex performance-versus-affordability interaction: • Early in the concept definition process to develop the initial O&S cost estimates and resulting performance • During the development process to refine these estimates, and • Throughout the rest of the weapon system’s life cycle (initial fielding, operations and sustainment and disposal). This presentation will examine the implications of manpower policies on the ability to generate effective time on station and the cost of providing that surveillance coverage. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  3. Modeling and Simulation Trade Space • Number of Platforms (A/C, UAV, GS) • Number of Locations Operational Dials • Mission Schedule / Priority • Duty Day / Personnel Limitations System Utilization Support Resources Initial Investment Costs Results: Operational Performance ETOS RAM-C Metrics: Material Availability Operational Availability Ownership Costs MAAF Simulation Sustainment Dials • Reliability • Maintainability • Support Concept • Number of Personnel • Phase / Sch Maint. Cycle • Range & Depth of Spares • Number & Type of Facilities • Component Reorder Time • Depot Throughput for Repairs • Range & Depth of Support Equipment • Reparable Equipment Turnaround Time Sustainment Costs $/FH or $/Yr Cost Knobs • Public/ Private Work Share • Supplier Work Share • Labor Rates • Overhead / Fee Structure • O&S Parametric Values Sustainment Dials Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  4. Agenda • Tool Overview • Scenario • Baseline Results • Availability Enhancements & Cost Reduction Options • Availability Enhancements & Cost Reduction Results • Conclusions Note: Notional Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability and Cost Data Used To Illustrate the Methodology Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  5. Tool Overview: Model for Aircraft Availability Forecasting (MAAF) 5

  6. Model For Asset Availability Forecasting (MAAF) • An Object-oriented, Simulation Modeling Application Intended To Help Designers, Analysts And Planners Conduct Rapid Analyses Of A Variety Of Logistics Problems, Including: • Predicting Weapon System Availability Under Various Operational Scenarios • Allocating Logistics Resources Based On Mission Requirements • Impact Of Maintenance And Operational Policies On Aircraft Availability And Resources • Assessment Of R&M Improvements On Weapon System Availability And Logistics Resource Requirements • Sizing Units, Readiness Spares Packages (RSPs), Etc. • Analyzing The Impact Of Force Structure Changes • Impact of Primary Aircraft Inventory vs. Backup Aircraft Inventory Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  7. MESL* A/C 1 PLATFORMS Missions GS 1 Required Repair Resources EQUIPMENT PEOPLE FACILITIES Maintenance Spares Operations SE Hangars Crew Chiefs Ramps Aircrews Avionics MAAF Object Oriented Framework LOCATION A location may possess that include MAAF Supports the Rapid Configuration of Scenarios to Simultaneously Assess Mission and Support Requirements * Minimum Essential Subsystem List Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  8. MAAF Modeling and Simulation Construct Direct Support NRE Costs Quantity & Type of Missions Quantity & Type of Bases. Quantity & Type of Platforms Quantity & Type of Support Resources NRE and Sustainment Costs Direct Support Recurring Costs Cost Data Fleet Ops (SGR, Sch Eff.) CAPE (CAIG) O&S Costs Operational Requirements Aircraft Hvy Maint. Availability (Mat. Avail, MC Rate) Sch. Maint. Scheduled Maint (O/H) Supply Support Utilization O&S Data Output (Excel) LSA (Eagle) Task Analysis (Excel) Model for Asset Availability Forecasting Manpower Utilization SE & Facilities Utilization Reliability Predictions (Relex, Excel) R&M Input (Excel) Support System Definition R&M Output (Excel) R&M (from Simulation) Spares Analysis (VMETRIC) Spares / Consum. Input (Excel) Repair / Supply Depots Levels of Maint. Facility Capability Cost Data Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  9. MAAF Inputs And Outputs • Inputs • Platform R&M Data • Flight/Mission Critical Elements, MTBF, MTTR, Repair Resources • Mission Data • Mission Type, Platform Type and Qty., Departure/Arrival Locations and Times, MESL column reference • Support System Resources Resident At Each Location Resources, Including: • Personnel (Aircrew, Ops & Maint.) • Spares & Consumables • Support Equipment (& MHE) • Facilities • Mission-based Tasks (e.g. Preflight, Post Flight, Refuel, Rearm) • Scheduled Maintenance Activities (e.g. phased or isochronal inspections, Time Change Items) • Support Costs (Direct and Parametric) • Reports • Summary Statistics • Experiment Run Parameters • Mission / Sortie Accomplishment • MC Rates / Materiel Availability • Departure Reliability • Time on Ground • Supply Support Metrics • NRE and Recurring Support Costs • Graphical Reports • MC Rates / Availability • Resource Utilization • Mission / Sortie Accomplishment • Departure Reliability • Resource Exceptions • Logs • Detailed simulation processing results by aircraft or mission Cost Data • SimViz • Visualization of running simulation • Limited ability to interact and add resources to locations Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  10. Typical Platform MESL – Repair Actions Data Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  11. Operational Location Resources Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  12. Aircrew Manpower Policies Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  13. Modeling of Both Retail and Wholesale Supply Support Activities Organizational Level Operating Location Operating Location Spares Spares Part Request • Models Repairable & Consumable Items • Items Shared Between Locations Based On User Set Priorities • Repair Is A Closed Loop System Part Available IAW Ship Time Supply/Repair Depot On Hand Stock Part Available IAW Repair Time Part Available IAW Reorder Time Unlimited Stock of Consumables Component Repair Depot Level Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  14. Modeling of the Supply System Lateral Supplier Key Depot Repair Unserviceable LRU Unserviceable SRU LRU Request Serviceable LRU Open / Closed Gate Serviceable SRU Platform Base Supply Depot Re-procure I Level Nesting Allowed Re-procurement Request MAAF Models Both the Wholesale And Retail Levels of Supply Support Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  15. Aircraft Mission Processing Typical Aircraft Mission: Takeoff and Land at Home Base Complex Mission Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  16. Aircraft Missions Definition Typical Mission Complex Mission Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  17. Ground Station Mission Processing Begin Mission Process Next Mission on the Event List at Scheduled Select Ground Station Ground Stations Available N Spare GS Avail? Downing Failures? Unit Failures? Y N Y Sched. Maint. Req.? Abort Mission Y Perform Mission Perform Scheduled Maint. N Y N N Repair Unit Continue Mission Unit Failures? Y Repair Ground Station Select Ground Station End Mission Task Requiring Support Resources Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  18. Ground Station Mission Definition Non-Stop Mission Periodic Mission 18 Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  19. UAV / ETOS Mission Processing Begin Sortie Select UAV Pre-Flight UAV Order Replacement UAV Downing Failures? Unit Failures? UAV Available Y Abort Mission Y Perform Ingress N N N Sched. Maint. Req.? Continue Mission Y Perform Scheduled Maint. Downing Failures? Unit Failures? Y Y N On Station Unit Failures? Y Repair UAV N N Continue Mission Schedule Replacement UAV Unit Failures? Downing Failures? Y Task Requiring Support Resources Y If Possible, Replacement UAV Scheduled to Allow Seamless Gap in Surveillance Coverage Perform Egress Perform Egress N N Continue Mission End Sortie Return to Base Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  20. UAV Mission Definition Mission Definition On Station Information Ingress/Egress Information 20 Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  21. ETOS Definition Source: Venn Diagram inspired by Chris Marchefsky of NAVAIR • Effective Time On Station (ETOS) is the percentage of planned calendar time that an aircraft is actually on station and effective Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  22. Coverage* Coverage Coverage* Coverage* Cov. X Total Time ETOS Calculation Technique Post- flt & Maint. Ingress Pre-flt Egress Asset 1 Ready Coverage Coverage 4 5 4 5 1 2 1 2 Ready Coverage Coverage Asset 2 1 2 1 2 4 5 Asset 3 Ready Cov. 1 2 4 5 Failure * Coverage Requires: Operational Aircraft Operational Ground Station Fully Manned Ground Station T=0 Post-flt& Maintenance Egress Pre-flt 4 1 Coverage* (3) Ingress 5 2 ETOS is Calculated In Accordance With NGC Patent No: US 7,436,295 B2 22 Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  23. Platforms Mission Processing Aircraft Unmanned Systems / Effective Time on Station Family of Systems Ground / Naval Equipment UAV and Ground Station Platforms Create A Family Of Systems Model Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  24. Availability Calculation Day 100 Day 200 Day 300 Day 400 MAAF Calculates Availability By Tail Number On A Minute by Minute / Day by Day Basis Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  25. Aircraft Daily Status Aircraft Status Daily MC Rate (In Heavy Maintenance) MAAF Calculates Availability By Tail Number On A Minute by Minute / Day by Day Basis Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  26. Output Example: Summary Page Cost of Sustaining Performance Operational & Availability Performance Maintenance And Supply Job Summary Operations & Support Costs Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  27. Output Example: Summary Page (Continued) Initial Investment Cost Operational & Availability Performance Maintenance And Supply Job Summary Non-Recurring Support Costs Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  28. Scenario 28

  29. Scenario: Annual Operation of the fleet of Gawker Surveillance Aircraft • Gawker R&M attributes: • Mean Flight Hours Between Failure (MFHBF): 15.0 FH • Mean Flight Hours Between Removal (MFHBR): 21.3 FH • Mean Time To Repair (MTTR): 1.3 Hrs • 5 operating locations each with 4 aircraft • 4 FOBs and 1 Training MOB • 1 Squadron with 4 aircraft at each location • Daily flight schedule: Two 16 hour missions per day • Squadron manning: 135 personnel • Direct Aircrew: 16 • Direct Maintenance Personnel: 37 • Initial Spares per base • $69.2M; 499 Total Items 417 Line Items 870 Total Items Note: Notional Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability and Cost Data Used To Illustrate Our Methodology Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  30. Baseline Results 30

  31. Baseline Results MC Rate: 77.82% Schedule Effectiveness = 87.7% For $6,935 / Flight Hour Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  32. Baseline Results: Availability All Airbases Single Airbase Example Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  33. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15 Baseline Results: O&S Cost

  34. Availability Enhancement And Cost Reduction Options 34

  35. Modeling and Simulation Trade Space • Number of Platforms (A/C, UAV, GS) • Number of Locations Operational Dials • Mission Schedule / Priority • Duty Day / Personnel Limitations System Utilization Support Resources Initial Investment Costs Results: Operational Performance ETOS RAM-C Metrics: Material Availability Operational Availability Ownership Costs MAAF Simulation Sustainment Dials • Reliability • Maintainability • Support Concept • Number of Personnel • Phase / Sch Maint. Cycle • Range & Depth of Spares • Number & Type of Facilities • Component Reorder Time • Depot Throughput for Repairs • Range & Depth of Support Equipment • Reparable Equipment Turnaround Time Sustainment Costs $/FH or $/Yr Cost Knobs • Public/ Private Work Share • Supplier Work Share • Labor Rates • Overhead / Fee Structure • O&S Parametric Values Sustainment Dials Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  36. MAAF Analysis Flow Customer Specification / CONOPS MC Rate, ETOS “S” Curve Inherent Weapon System Design MAAF Forensic Tools Operational & Cost Performance Support System Design O&S Cost, CPFH “S” Curve Ensures Affordable Initial Investment And Sustainment Costs Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  37. Examples of Forensic Reports Forensic Reports Pinpoint Cost Drivers and Under Utilized Support Assets Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  38. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15 Availability Enhancement & Cost Reduction Options • Reduce Quantity of Aircrew • 16 to 8 Aircrew • Reduce Aircraft Quantity • 4 to 3 for each of the FOBs • Reduce Annual Flight Hours • Mission Duration reduced from 16 to 12 hours • Implement Spares Cost Reduction (Reducing Repair Turnaround) • Implement Spares Cost Reduction Implement Module Repair for Repair Cost drivers

  39. Availability Enhancement And Cost Reduction Results 39

  40. Option 1 Discussion – Aircrew Reduction • Baseline Scenario has 16 Aircrews per Base, For a Total of 80 Aircrews • Baseline Analysis shows the Aircrew Utilization is Low • On Average, Only 22% of the Aircrew is Being Used • Reduce Quantity of Aircrew by 50% • 16 to 8 Aircrew at each Base Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  41. Option 1 Comparison – 16 to 8 Aircrews Degradation in Schedule Effectiveness Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  42. Option 1 Comparison – 16 to 8 Aircrews Continued Maximum Hours in 90 Day Period Exceed With 8 Crews – More Required Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  43. Option 1 Comparison – Choice 1 Add more Crews 16 to 10 Aircrews 2.8% Savings The Same 87.7% of Scheduled Missions Launched - Saves $9.8M O&S Per Year Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  44. Option 1 Comparison – Choice 2 Increase FHs Allowed in 90 Days 3.7% Savings The Same 87.7 % of Scheduled Missions Launched - Saves $13M O&S Per Year Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  45. Option 2 Discussion – Reduction of Aircraft • 5 operating locations each with 4 aircraft • 4 FOBs and 1 Training MOB • 1 Squadron with 4 aircraft at each location • Daily flight schedule: Two 16 hour missions per day • Baseline Analysis shows that 1 AC is on the Flight Line Fully Mission Capable • Reduce Aircraft Quantity • 4 AC to 3 AC for each of the FOBs • 4 AC at the MOB Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  46. Option 2 Comparison – Reduction of Aircraft 2.6% Savings 4 Less Aircraft Procured 3.3% Less Missions Launched - Saves $9.1M O&S Per Year Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  47. Option 3 Discussion – Reduced Annual Flight Hours • 5 operating locations each with 4 aircraft • 4 FOBs and 1 Training MOB • 1 Squadron with 4 aircraft at each location • Daily flight schedule: • Baseline : Two 16 hour missions per day • Option: Two 12 hour missions per day Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  48. Option 3 Comparison – Reduced Annual Flight Hours 14.4% Savings 4.5% Increase in Missions Launched Saves $50M O&S Per Year 8 Aircrew Can Support This Reduced Flight Hour Program Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  49. Option 4 Discussion – 30 Day Repair Cycle • Implement Spares Cost Reduction (Reducing Repair Turnaround) • Increase Repair Costs By 25% to Reduce the Repair Cycle Time from 90 Days to 30 Days • Reduce Spares Quantity 15.1% Reduction in Initial Spares Investment Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

  50. Option 4 Comparison – Reduced Repair Pipeline Time To 30 Days $51.4M Savings ~$59 More per FH 2 More Missions Launched – 24 More Flight Hours/Year $51.4M Reduction In Initial Spares ~$59 More Per FH for Repair Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15

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