1 / 18

Prof. Brothers W. Malema Department of Economics - UB

Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Collapse? The case of Botswana’s an Untapped Economic Potential. Prof. Brothers W. Malema Department of Economics - UB. Introduction. African Economic Miracle Phenomenal Growth( Conteth C. 2008, Malema B. w. 2012, Island of Peace

Download Presentation

Prof. Brothers W. Malema Department of Economics - UB

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Collapse? The case of Botswana’s an Untapped Economic Potential Prof. Brothers W. Malema Department of Economics - UB

  2. Introduction • African Economic Miracle • Phenomenal Growth(ContethC. 2008, Malema B. w. 2012, • Island of Peace • Democracy and Elections(FebaekM. 2010, Good K. 1999 & Taylor I. 2003) • Impetus to Growth • Primarily – Minerals

  3. Introduction Cont. • Secondarily • Economic Management • Democracy • Rule of Law

  4. Transition

  5. Transition

  6. Diversification OR What?

  7. Botswana’s Agricultural Sector • Share to GDP(WB, 2013) • 43 % in 1960 • 39.29 % in 1966 • <9 % since 1983 • < 3 % since 2001 • > 3 % in 2009 and 2010

  8. Second Diversification OR What? • Share of mining was 2% at independence • Increased to about 46.7% in 2003 • Has been decreasing • Has been below 20% since 2009 • Was 13.5 % in 2012 • Is this diversification?

  9. Economic Challenges • Poverty (Hope K. R & Edge W. A. 1996, ContethC. 2008 and BIDPA & WB, 2013) • Below $1;23.4 (2003) 6.4 (2009/10) • 19.3 of Population poor • 16% of Popu below food comp of PDL • Unemployment • 17.8% in 2009/10 • Income Distribution • GNI 0.6(Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2012)

  10. Responding to the Challenges • Social Protection (BIDPA & WB, 2013) • Social Net • Destitue • Orphan • Labour Programmes • Ipelegeng • Internship

  11. Growth without Development • Challenges above taints Botswana’s record • Attributed to the economic structure (Conteth C. 2008 and Malema B. W. 2012) • Causes • Lack of Diversification • Lewis two Sector model

  12. LEWIS TWO SECTOR MODEL • Gives to some degree a historical account • Rural Subsistence Agriculture • Emerging Urban Industrial Sector • Developed in parallel fashion • Rural provided inputs • Urban provided market • Agriculture became productive Todaro & Smith (2009)

  13. LEWIS TWO SECTOR MODEL Cont. • The transition omitted in Botswana • Agriculture in particular arable was almost neglected • Drought frustrated attempts to improve sector • Measures put in place failed to address the economic challenges (ISPAAD)

  14. Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

  15. Lessons From the GFC • Economy highly Volatile • Diversification a must • Agriculture holds the keys • Market is a given • Technological knowhow not much of a challenge • An omitted step that requires visitation

  16. Lessons From the GFC Cont. • Lack of substantial FDI Inflows • Batswana investing more outside than expatriates inside • Expansion of BDC activities a must • Requires total abhorrence for corruption • Palapye Glass Project • Botswana Meat Commission • Masitara Report

  17. Conclusion • We still have resources (and therefore potential) • Should use them productively to diversify • Mode of ownership should be less of a concern • Their depletion will be our end.

  18. NOTE • ONLY TENDENCIES • NO UNIVERSAL TRUTHS • NO SCIENTIFIC LAWS I THANK YOU

More Related