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The Energy Challenge and Green Power

The Energy Challenge and Green Power. Professor K.B. Chan Chairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association WEF Shenzhen, China November 15, 2009. Ref No.: SMT-CDV-091110WEF-Rev. 2.0. Contents. The Global problems The energy challenge The CO2 issue What actions to take? Renewable

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The Energy Challenge and Green Power

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  1. The Energy ChallengeandGreen Power Professor K.B. Chan Chairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association WEF Shenzhen, China November 15, 2009 Ref No.: SMT-CDV-091110WEF-Rev. 2.0

  2. Contents • The Global problems • The energy challenge • The CO2 issue • What actions to take? • Renewable • 100% Green Power? • Conclusion

  3. The Global Problems • 1. Population 2009 6.8 billion 2040 9 billion + ( ~ 30% increase ) • 2. Enough Resources? Quality Resources? Land Food Raw Material Air Energy Water • 3. Economy Growth Poverty • 4. Environment Climate Pollution Waste

  4. The Energy Challenge • Currently the world consumes total energy of ~ 16 TW ~ 2.4 kW per capita ( T = tera or trillion = 1,000 billion ) • By 2030 it will be ~ 23 TW ~ 40% increase due to growth in economy, population • Very uneven distribution – kW per capita 2009 USA -10, UK - 5, China – 2, Bangladesh – 0.2

  5. World’s primary energy supply : • 80% - burning fossil fuels • 43% oil, 32% coal, 25% natural gas • 10% - burning combustible renewables and waste • 5% - nuclear • 5% - hydro • 0.5% - geothermal, solar, wind, . . .

  6. Electricity – ~ 11TW, 64% of primary energy

  7. Fossil fuel is running out soon! If economic & population growth increase faster, the above period will shorten! Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy 2009”, (www.bp.com)

  8. Oil supply Note: discoveries back-dated

  9. The CO2 issue Again unbalanced (Tonnes per person/yr) World - 4.4, USA - 19, UK - 8.6, China - 4.6, Bangladesh - 0.25 Source: Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009

  10. Global warming & Pollution - Forecast • 2050, sea level rise 1 meter 10% world populations will lose their homelands • 2050 in China, output of crops will down 30% due to water shortage • Premature deaths caused by air pollution in each year: • Globally - 2 million deaths, • China 650,000, India - 530,000, USA - 41,000

  11. Urgent tasks ahead for the world • Reverse global warming • Reduce CO2 emission • Optimize fossil fuel consumption • Develop alternative energy source • Transition to 100% sustainable Green power • Maintain balanced economic growth • Mission impossible???

  12. What actions to take? • 1. Reduce energy use • 2. De-carbonization • 3. Develop sustainable Green Power • 4. Devise economic tools & political will power to make the above happen Questions : • 1. Is there a solution at all? • 2. Too little & too late?

  13. Reduce energy use Where used – developed economy Industry ~ 25% Transport ~ 25% Built/Environment/appliance ~ 50% ( private & commercial ) Industry – not much can be done! Could use more for economic growth

  14. Built/Environment/Appliance • Improve in building design can save > 30% Housing stock take 100 years turn over • Efficient appliance, heating & cooling Change of lifestyle Investment • Lighting ~ 20% of electricity use replace incandescent bulb by LED even 100% cut consumption by 3% Above can help but not enough!

  15. Transport • 900million cars now, 2,100 million in 2030 • Almost 100% internal combustion engine, huge consumption of oil & emit CO2 • Solution : • 1. More efficient engine by 50% just use less oil & less CO2 • 2. Electric cars – hybrid, plug in battery issue, infrastructure & green electricity • 3. Hydrogen car too expensive and no infrastructure Pace of introduction of green cars too slow!

  16. CO2 target – IEA 450 scenario • CO2 rises to 510 ppm 2035 – 2045, • then declines very slowly to 450 ppm

  17. De-carbonization • Neutralization • Our earth has 4 million hectare of Jungle can neutralize 97 billion metric tons of CO2 per year • The neutralization will saturate in ~ 100 years • However, forest is disappearing fast due to urbanization and over exploit of wood • Action : reduce wood usage find alternative e.g. bamboo re-forest

  18. De-carbonization • CCS – Carbon Capture & Storage • As we will still depend on fossil fuel for main electricity generation till 2030 and beyond, another 100 years? • Design & build higher efficient power plants • Develop and deploy technology to capture and burial of CO2 from power stations and large industrial plants!

  19. Renewable energy & Green Power • 1. Biofuel • 2. Hydro & tidal • 3. Geothermal • 4. Wind • 5. Solar • 6. Nuclear

  20. Biofuel • 1. Ethanol – • 1.1 G1 – Corn, sugar cane Only 2% gain Disrupt food chain • 1.2 G2 - cellulose Ready in 2013? Scale up issue • 2. Biomass • 2.1 Methane lock in permafrost Technology not ready May upset environment ** Both still emit CO2, just less. Use to reduce oil consumption

  21. Hydro, tidal, geothermal, wind • 1. Hydro – most available sites identified • 2. Tidal – specific region • 3. Geothermal – specific region • 4. Wind Mature technology however unstable only 25% efficiency

  22. Solar • 1. Concentrate • 2. Photovoltaic • Unstable - sun dependent • Night time issue • Storage issue • Both technology are mature • Highly scalable • Need cost down • Government incentive

  23. Nuclear • 1. Fission • Good solution • Safe but social barrier • Uranium last only 80 yrs at current rate • Waste treatment • Fear of “making the bomb” • 2. Fast breeder • Small scale & takes 12 years cycle • 3. Thorium • Experimental • 4. Fusion • Theoretical best solution but not yet success

  24. The challenge – 100% Green Power • To replace all 11 TW with renewables needs • Hydro ~ 1.5 TW • Nuclear ~ 1 TW • Wind ~ 3.5 TW • Solar ~ 2.5 TW Concentrate • 2.5 TW Photovoltaic

  25. We need to build - minimum • 300 more hydro stations @ 1 GW • 1,000 nuclear power stations @ 1 GW • 700,000 large wind turbines @ 5 mW • 8,300 solar concentrates @ 300mW • 8,300 solar farms @ 300mW • Efficiency not taking into account! • Other Issues : Investment? Time required? Trigger other environmental issues? Engineering man power?

  26. The material hurdle • The world does not have enough criticalraw materials to build them • Silver • Lithium • Indium • Tellurium • Platinum • Rare earth elements

  27. Possible scenario - IEA

  28. The conclusion 1 • Huge increase in energy demand and growing • Global warming is real and imminent, due to CO2 • Fossil fuels will still be used for quite a long time • The reserve can be stretched and CO2 reduced by Reduction in consumption De-carbonization Efficient power plants Efficient appliance, building, cars Change in lifestyle

  29. The conclusion 2 • Big challenge in developing & deploying environmental friendly technology • All formats are needed, main ones are hydro, wind, solar, nuclear • Many hurdles to overcome • Huge R&D effort • Huge investment & long build up time • Global effort • Politicalwill power is the final key!

  30. The electronic industry is deeply involved in all aspects.We are part of the solution as well as part of the problem!Action is Now!Do not wait for Copenhagen

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