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SA Picture Book Kgotso Radira

SA Picture Book Kgotso Radira. Cyclical Indicators. 2. Leading Indicator. 3. Source: SARB. Composite Indicator. Lagging Indicator. Money & Finance. 6. … not enough jobs were created during periods of strong growth. Source: SARB. … key to job creation is investment in infrastructure.

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SA Picture Book Kgotso Radira

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  1. SA Picture Book Kgotso Radira

  2. Cyclical Indicators 2

  3. Leading Indicator 3 Source: SARB

  4. Composite Indicator

  5. Lagging Indicator

  6. Money & Finance 6

  7. … not enough jobs were created during periods of strong growth Source: SARB

  8. … key to job creation is investment in infrastructure Source: SARB

  9. …investment growth is key for growth in employment Source: SARB

  10. …private sector investment will then recover…. Source: SARB

  11. …macro Inflation drivers 11 Source: Stats SA, Investec Economics

  12. …food prices continue to rise..… 12 Source: Stats SA

  13. …due to rising international food prices..… 13 Source: Stats SA, Investec Economics

  14. …Inflation has been driven higher by volatile components not demand driven 14

  15. …Consumer spending remains weak, hence durable and semi goods inflation…. 15

  16. …administered prices have been the main drivers of inflation…. 16

  17. …our view on inflation going forward … Target range (3-6%) 17 Source: Stats SA, Investec Economics

  18. Economic Growth 18

  19. …GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in Q2.11… 19 Source: DataStream

  20. ..Business Confidence…. Index 20 Source: I-net

  21. Business confidence and investment Index 21 Source: BER, SARB

  22. BER Building sector confidence Index 22 Source: BER

  23. Household debt to income and HCE % %qqsaa 23 Source: SARB

  24. Household debt to income and HCE % %qqsaa Rm % disposable income 24 Source: SARB

  25. Consumer Confidence Index % ch y/y 25 Source: BER, SARB

  26. Money Supply, Bank Credit Source: SARB

  27. ..house prices… % ch y/y ABSA House Prices 27 Source: ABSA

  28. Insolvencies 28 Source: Stats SA

  29. Liquidations

  30. The strength of SA’s regulatory and corporate governance environment is being increasingly recognised but it remains dogged by legacy issues.

  31. ….so where to from here (2012)? Economy Rand Interest rates & inflation Consumer spending Relative to world Government finances Politics & Stability- important dates 31

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