A frican M onsoon M ultidisciplinary A nalyses A frikanske M onsun : M ultidisiplinære A nalyser A frikaanse M oes

1. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses • Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser • Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse • Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano • Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen • Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos • Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine

2. Variability in the West African Monsoon Matters! Recognising the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts.

3. Variability in the WAM impacts the US! Bonnie (05) Charlie (05) Frances (05) Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina (courtesy NOAA) Ivan (05) courtesy A. Aiyyer

4. The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder AVHRR, highlighting the marked meridional gradients in surface conditions over tropical North Africa and zonal symmetry.

5. The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate System during Boreal summer Heat Low SAL AEJ ITCZ Cold Tongue

6. The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system AEJ 50oC 90oC θ θe θe θ 20oC 60oC

7. Programmatic aspects • During past decades, China and India have benefited immensely from collaboration with the developed nations in weather-climate research (e.g., numerical modeling & field experiments) • Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree: leverage ongoing activities as a framework? • International African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program is such a framework ( West African region) • U.S. presence in AMMA mainly: a) DOE-ARM (deployment of a technologically advanced mobile observing system); b) NASA (hurricane genesis measurements downstream in E. Atlantic); IRI (global models)

8. Selected science aspects • Africa is an integral part of the Earth’s climatesystem but has been little studied, poorly understood compared to other regions of the world • Africa is one of Earth’s 3 large-scale heat sources, along with Amazonia and the Indonesian ‘Maritime Continent’ • Africa’s convective weather systems and precipitation regimes are direly in need of quantification • Africa’s monsoon system differs from the Asia-Australia monsoon and from monsoons of the Americas – fundamental in regard to inter-annual issues at the weather-climate interface

9. The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system Key weather systems in the West African and Tropical Atlantic regions An ideal region to study scale interactions in the WAM and tropical cyclogenesis SAL AEWs TC MCSs

10. Introduction Overview of AMMA-International US contributions to the AMMA field campaign AMMA-US

11. Germany IMPETUS VOLTA France CATCH White Book AMMA-API UK NERC DABEX DODO Others in Europe INTEO, ... EU Integrated Project Pan-african initiative (PIAF) ACMAD USA ARM-DOE NOAA NASA AGRYMET ASECNA CERMES African Univ DMN, DHN, , EIER, others ... 1. AMMA International To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate -Science (Challenge: disciplines, scales) -Implementation (Obs, Model,..) -Data archive and sharing -Funding issues

12. 1. AMMA International • To improve our understanding of the WAM and its influence on the • physical, chemical & biological environment regionally and globally. AIMS (2) To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring & prediction strategies. (3)To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is effectively integrated with prediction & decision making activity.

13. DecisionMakers Early Warning Systems, Advice, … WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change Models & Observations IMPACTS Water Resources Land Surfaces Ocean Multi-disciplinary research Public Health Monsoon Dynamics Food security Socio-Economy Aerosols Chemistry

14. ICIG PO WG2 WG3 WG5 WG1 WG4 ST4Capacity building & training IGB Endorses the Science & Implementation Plans Produces the Science & Implementation Plans Integrative Science Obs implementation ISSC TT1 Radio soundings WAM & global climate (incl aerosol/chemistry TT2a Surface Layer TT2b Aerosol & Radiation Water cycle TT3 Gourma site TT4 Niamey site Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks ST3 Database ST1 EOP/LOP TT5 Ouémé site TT6 Oceaic campaigns Prediction of climate impacts TT7 SOP-Dry season High impact weather prediction ST2 incl AOC TT8 SOP-Monsoon season AMMA National & Pan Scientific Committees TT9 SOP-Downstream ARM Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP, THORPEX, ..)

15. International Scientific Steering Committee Membership: Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood, Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel, Bob Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe Prospero, Claire Reeves, Madeline Thomson Co-Chairs: Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft ISSC responsible for: Formulation of well defined scientific objectives and a coherent program, to address the three overarching aims (see International Science Plan) To coordinate integrative work through the establishment of the 5 international WGs

16. WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate Co-chairs: Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ. Oklahoma, US) This WG is concerned with the 2-way interactions between the West African Monsoon & the rest of the globe. Research areas under this theme include: (i) Variability and predictability of the WAM (nature and role of teleconnections, intraseasonal variability including easterly waves, predictability issues and the role of the ocean, detection of global change), (ii) Monsoon processes (e.g. scale interactions, the seasonal cycle and monsoon onset), (iii) Global impacts of the WAM (e.g. on tropical cyclones, aerosol variability, atmospheric chemistry). n.b. includes aerosol-chemistry, modeling strategy evolving

17. WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for onset and retreat) for Niamey based on area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000). Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler, 1992).

18. WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate Dominant pattern of precipitation error associated with dominant pattern of SST prediction error based on persistent SST anomalies (Goddard & Mason ,Climate Dynamics, 2002) Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST simulation – note systematic error in east-west gradient in the tropical Atlantic

19. WG2: Water Cycle Co-leaders:Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal), Paul Houser (George Mason, US) , Jean-Luc Redelsperger (CNRM, France), France) The efficiency of the processes controlling the advection of atmospheric moisture, its transformation into precipitation, and the behaviour of rain water over land (e.g. run-off, infiltration etc), is a crucial aspect of the WAM. Analysis & understanding of the water cycle at regional-scale, mesoscale and local scale will be carried out in the WG. Downscaling issues for impact studies are key.

20. MODEL LING / FORECASTS Downscaling for impact studies Global SST Teleconnections SATELLITE S Monsoon System GG SST Variability OBSERVATIONS Easterly waves Major River Basins Mesoscale Convective Systems Catchments Vegetation Scale Interactions Convective Cells Pools Water vapor transport Vegetation Trace gaz , Aerosols, etc EOP SOP LOP A multiscale approach Global 10 km 4 Regional 10 km 3 Mesoscale 10 km 2 Local 10 km 1 Hour Day Season Year

21. WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks Co-leaders:Jan Polcher (LMD, France); Chris Taylor (CEH, UK) To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the continental surface & the atmosphere  to bring together the various process studies (land and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional and mesoscale

22. WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks Koster etal, 2004

23. WG3b: Ocean-surface-atmosphere feedbacks Leader:Bernard Bourles et al To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the ocean surface & the atmosphere  to bring together the various process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional scales

24. WG4: Prediction of climate impacts Co-leaders:Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy Morse (Univ. Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson (IRI, US) (IRI, US) One of the 3 major aims of AMMA: To provide the underpinning science that relates climate variability to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining relevant monitoring and prediction strategies. AMMA will ensure strong linkages between the work taking place on impacts and that taking place on observed variability and predictability of the WAM.

25. WG4: Prediction of climate impacts Example: Meningitis epidemics in Mali Semaine de démarrage de l’épidémie January Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier (hiver) (Position du FIT la plus basse en latitude) Prediction  Alert Systems

26. WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability CORE Membership: E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones (Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US), F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US), Z. Toth (NCEP), US) To improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather over Africa, including its impact on the tropical Atlantic and Europe. Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in advance? Do such dry spells influence downstream tropical cyclone activity?

27. WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability • Major Ongoing Activities: • Tailoring and evaluation of forecast products for users in tropical regions • e.g. dry run 22nd August – 2nd September 2005; SOP 2006 • Impact of additional observations • ECMWF, Meteo-France, NCEP, NRL, UK Met Office and others • Targeting in tropical regions • e.g. especially associated with driftsonde

28. International Coordination & Implementation Group Co-chairs: Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) & Doug Parker (Un Leeds UK) ICIG is responsible for implementation of the AMMA field program

29. 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 years of observation and research WA + Ocean Long term Observations (LOP) Regional Enhanced Period (EOP) E 0 0 S O P 10 3 Meso WET DRY Local 2006 2007 2008 2002 2005 SOP0_a3 ?

30. From the continental to the local scale Tamanrasset Tamanrasset Sal Khartoum EOP Maps Niamey AMMA … Ron Brown Cruises and Meteor EGEE Cruises

32. International Governing Board (IGB) Co-Chairs: Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan Thorpe (NERC) Membership: G. Amanatidis (EU),J. Boulegue (IRD) , W. Ferrel (DOE), A. Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J. Kaye (NASA), A. Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D & Representative PIREM), J. Laver (NOAA-NCEP),A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU & CNRS) To approve the structure and implementation of AMMA particularly with respect to the necessary financial and technical support. To identify and mobilize national & international resources to support AMMA activities. The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference

33. Support Teams AMMA International has also established a number of support teams for the project. Three of these are concerned with the field program and the data center. The fourth (ST4) is concerned with “Capacity Building and Training”. There are a number of efforts going forward under the auspices of ST4 that require coordination (coordination is currently weak). This includes some support from IRD (France), a GEF proposal in West Africa, and calls for proposals from DFID (UK). There is an urgent need for stronger coordination of the various activities. The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference

34. International AMMA Webpages International AMMA webpages have beendeveloped to aid communication http://www.amma-international.org Unique entrance to all AMMA sites

35. Endorsed by Major International Programmes Collaboration with other international Programmes as: WMO AMMA is definitively International More than 500 Researchers from around 30 countries in Africa, Europe & USA Algeria, Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cap Verde, Chad, Congo, Denmark, France, Germany, Ghana, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, Togo, UK, US

36. Founding Agencies Regional African Centers Agencies supporting AMMA With the participation of University of Cologne, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfharte, University of Leeds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Copenhagen, MEDIAS-France, University of Burgundy, Université Paris 12 - Val de Marne, Université Paul Sabatier, Centre de coopération Internationale gen Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Bremen, Forschunggszentrum Kalsruhe, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilianns-Universitaet Muenchen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Univerrsity of East Anglia, University of Liverpool, University of York, University of Leicester, University of Manchester, Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of University of Cambridge, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Enea per Nuove Technologie, l'Energia e l'Ambiente, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche -Institute of Biometeorology , Universita' di Perugia, Universidad de Castilla- La Mancha, Universitad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Université catholique de Louvain, European Ceeentre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Centre de Reecherche Médicale et Sanitaire, Ecole Inter-Etats d'Ingénieurs de l'Equipement JRural, African Centre of Meteorological Application for development, Vaisala OYJ, Ocean Scientific International Ltd, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne en Afrique et Madagascar, Kalsrhue University, Universite d Abomey-Calavi, Universite de Dakar, Universite de Niamey, Directions de la Meteorologie et de l Hydrologie du Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote dÍvoire, Ghana, Guinee, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo

37. AMMA-US: Background An AMMA-US proposal was prepared in December 2003 (see AMMA-US website)Due to lack of funding the original AMMA-US proposal could not be funded as one; individual proposals were prepared to address various parts of the program. Some of these as well as additional proposals have been successful, resulting in a significant US contribution to AMMA field program.

38. US contributions to AMMA field program in 06 ARM mobile facility (DOE) MIT-radar (NASA) Surface obs. – malaria studies (NOAA) SALEX: NOAA P3 and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV NASA-AMMA Targeted Missions with DC-8, + Ground-based obs. (N-Pol + TOGA radars, soundings) Driftsonde/THORPEX (NCAR/NSF/NOAA + CNES, France) ZEUS lightning detection network Surface-based research radars US-GCOS: Hydrogen generator at Dakar Ronald H. Brown Cruises + ship-based obs (NOAA), supported by multi-year sustained obs (see next slide) Climate Transect

39. Long-term observations in the tropical Atlantic

40. AMMA-US: Rationale and aims of workshop It is estimated that in terms of field observations alone in 2006, the US is contributing ~$14M!!!!!. BUT there is a lack of support for analysis of this data! There are other significant US contributions to AMMA activities including in particular: NCEP (e.g. forecast support including training via Africa Desk, real-time data impact studies) GLOBE Individual PIs (funded through normal routes)

41. AMMA-US: Coordination As a result of a recent workshop a structure is being created to coordinate US contributions to AMMA. This structure mirrors as much as possible the international Working Group structure. We are establishing the following 3 working groups: WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate: Kerry Cook, Pete Lamb, Bob Molinari WG2 Water Cycle: Paul Houser WG3 Surface-atmosphere feedbacks: Fatih Eltahir (land), Erica Key (ocean) The US also has important contributions to international WG4 (e.g. IRI) and WG5 (e.g. NAMMA, and individual PIs and groups working on prediction and predictability issues including NCEP, NRL, Univ. Miami).