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Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina

Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina. Jason Caldwell South Carolina State Climatology Office PAMS Mini-Technical Conference March 11, 2005. Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation. Appalachian Mountains.

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Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina

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  1. Spatial DistributionofTropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina Jason CaldwellSouth Carolina State Climatology OfficePAMS Mini-Technical ConferenceMarch 11, 2005

  2. Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation Appalachian Mountains UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT Atlantic Ocean MOISTURE SOURCE Gulf of Mexico MOISTURE SOURCE

  3. TROPICAL STORM STEERING MECHANISMS SURFACE: Central Atlantic Sub-Tropical HighExtends E-W with weakness SE US 500 MB: Westerly Flow East Coast Mid-Level Ridge over Central Atlantic 250 MB: Trough over Midwest and Great Lakes

  4. SOUTH CAROLINA TROPICAL STORMS CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD (1871-2004) TOTAL STORMS: 145 PERIOD CONSIDERED: 1950-2003 TOTAL 1950-2003: 70 STORMS SELECTED TOTAL: 54 STORMS

  5. Division 1Division 2Division 3Division 4Division 5Division 6Division 7Division 8 SELECTED TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AFFECTING SOUTH CAROLINA1950-2003

  6. SITE SELECTION • 20 DAILY SITES • SPACING: 50-75 km

  7. DIVISION 1Offshore Track Helene 1958 Ginny 1963 Amy 1975 Arthur 1996 4 STORMS

  8. DIVISION 2East Florida LandfallSouth Carolina Track Cleo 1964 Dora 1964 Dawn 1972 ST 3 1976 David 1979 Isidore 1984 Chris 1988 Jerry 1995 Kyle 2002 9 STORMS

  9. DIVISION 3West Florida LandfallOffshore Track Donna 1960 Gladys 1968 Dennis 1981 Ana 1991 Irene 1999 5 STORMS

  10. DIVISION 4Panhandle Florida LandfallInland/Coastal Track TS 7 1953 Florence 1953 Flossy 1956 TS 1 1957 Brenda 1960 Alma 1966 Alma 1970 Agnes 1972 Kate 1985 Allison 1995 Josephine 1996 Earl 1998 Gordon 2000 13 STORMS

  11. DIVISION 5Gulf Coast/Panhandle LandfallTrack East of Appalachians Hilda 1964 TS 1 1965 Babe 1977 Marco 1990 Helene 2000 5 STORMS

  12. DIVISION 6Gulf Coast/Panhandle LandfallTrack West of Appalachians Danny 1985 Andrew 1992 Alberto 1994 Beryl 1994 4 STORMS

  13. DIVISION 7Direct Landfall South Carolina Able 1952 TS 3 1953 Hazel 1954 Cindy 1959 Gracie 1959 Hugo 1989 6 STORMS

  14. DIVISION 8Direct Landfall North Carolina Connie 1955 Diane 1955 Ione 1955 TS 6 1961 Diana 1984 Bertha 1996 Bonnie 1998 Floyd 1999 8 STORMS

  15. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE * Used Panhandle/Inland-Coast Track (Division 4) Observed Precipitation Division 4 Mean

  16. HURRICANE CHARLEY * Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7) Observed Precipitation Division 7 Mean

  17. HURRICANE FRANCES * Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6) Observed Precipitation Division 6 Mean

  18. HURRICANE GASTON * Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7) Observed Precipitation Division 7 Mean

  19. HURRICANE IVAN * Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6) Observed Precipitation Division 6 Mean

  20. HURRICANE JEANNE * E Florida/SC Track (Division 2) Observed Precipitation Division 2 Mean

  21. ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGY Observed – Climatology = ERRORS RANGE-4.60 (over-predicted) to +7.10 (under-predicted) AVERAGE ERROR 2004-2.11 (Camden) to +0.56 (Calhoun Falls) BONNIE CHARLEY FRANCES GASTON IVAN JEANNE

  22. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK------------------------------------------ • UNDER-PREDICTS PRECIPITATION IN UPSTATE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS & ALONG TRACK; OVER PREDICTION MORE SPORADIC • ADDITIONAL STATIONS ADDED TO ACQUIRE MORE COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION (REMOVE WALTERBORO, CAMDEN) • COMPARISON OF CLIMATOLOGY TO HPC FORECASTS • PREPARATION OF MAX/MIN DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FLOOD FORECAST ENHANCEMENT • POTENTIAL WORK WITH SERFC • STATISTICS, STATISTICS, STATISTICS …… • 15th CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (SAVANNAH, GA – JUNE 2005)

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