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Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change. Understanding the MIT study & what it means for public policy. MIT Study: 1- The Input Data. net Removal, outflow , = 3. MIT Study – 2, Hypothetical Future. Step 3 – Subjects asked to sketch the likely future CO 2 emissions given this scenario above.

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Global Climate Change

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  1. Global Climate Change Understanding the MIT study & what it means for public policy

  2. MIT Study: 1- The Input Data net Removal, outflow, = 3 Edward J. Garrity

  3. MIT Study – 2, Hypothetical Future Step 3 – Subjects asked to sketch the likely future CO2 emissions given this scenario above. Edward J. Garrity

  4. MIT Study – 3, Example Results Edward J. Garrity

  5. Edward J. Garrity

  6. Why would smart people make this mistake? • Cognitive processing • System 1: Our brains operate automatically, quickly, little effort, involuntary reaction, intuitive, infers & invents causes & intentions, neglects ambiguity & suppresses doubt, is biased to believe & confirm, frames decisions narrowly • System 2: deliberate, effortful, rational Edward J. Garrity

  7. System 1 at work • We tend to use the information that is readily available (WYSIATI) • System 1 is designed to jump to conclusions from little evidence; we construct stories from the evidence • IF the story has coherence, then we have confidence in our opinions Edward J. Garrity

  8. MIT Experiment, CO2 levels • Problem was framed, presented in a simple manner: Atmospheric concentrations, what would future emissions look like? • System 1 at work: Two variables are related, correlation heuristic • If atmospheric CO2 levels off, then emissions must level off to match results • We easily ignore missing information Edward J. Garrity

  9. Heuristic Reasoning (System 1) • In 2000, atmospheric CO2 is 371 ppm • In 2080, it reaches 400 ppm and remains level • In 80 years it increases by about 8% • By 2080, inflow (from industrial activity) would need to decrease by 50%! Edward J. Garrity

  10. Mental Model is Missing • Bathtub analogy for stock & flow dynamics Atmospheric CO2 removal, outflow Emissions, inflow Edward J. Garrity

  11. Stock & Flow Reasoning • In order for Atmospheric CO2 levels to level off (equilibrium), … implies that inflows = outflows • In 2000, inflow from human activity is 6 bil. Tons, but outflow (removal) is 3 bil. tons • By 2080, inflow (from industrial activity) would need to be reduced to 3 bil. tons • Therefore, need to decrease by 50%! Edward J. Garrity

  12. Implications • Public does not understand the problem • More needs to be done to halt Global Climate Change than people realize • Although it is extremely difficult* to get, for example, a 20% decline in use of fossil fuels, … simply reducing by 20% means that we are still losing ground (Earth is heating). We need to get at least 50% reduction to keep stable Edward J. Garrity

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