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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days (4-10 November 2013), below-average precipitation was observed over eastern Bolivia, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Argentina, the central Amazon Basin, and Colombia. • For 11-17 November, ), below-average rainfall is predicted for Venezuela, northern Colombia, east-central Brazil, southern Bolivia, and most of Paraguay. Above-average rainfall is predicted for southern Colombia, Peru, the western and central Amazon Basin, and Uruguay.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over eastern Bolivia, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Argentina, the central Amazon Basin, and Colombia.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of Venezuela, and northern, southeastern and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was found over northeastern Argentina, and portions of Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon Basin, the Brazilian Plateau. And southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Plot not available SSTs are near average in most of the equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 2-8 November 2013, anomalous anticyclonic circulation (red A) was observed over the western Atlantic, and anomalous cyclonic circulation (red C) was observed over the east coast of Northeast Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion was found over western, southeastern and eastern Brazil, and anomalous sinking motion was observed over southern Brazil. C A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period 2-8 November 2013, temperatures were below average in eastern Bolivia, Paraguay, and portions of southern Brazil. Above average temperatures were observed over central Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 11 Nov 2013– Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 11 Nov 2013– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (11-17 Nov), below-average rainfall is predicted for Venezuela, northern Colombia, east-central Brazil, southern Bolivia, and most of Paraguay. Above-average rainfall is predicted for southern Colombia, Peru, the western and central Amazon Basin, and Uruguay. • For Days 8-14 (18-24 Nov), below-average rainfall is predicted for northern sections of Colombia and Venezuela, and east-central Brazil. Above-average rainfall is predicted for the central Amazon Basin, eastern Peru and eastern Bolivia.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 28 Oct 2013 Valid for 4-10 Nov 2013 Forecast from 4 Nov 2013 Valid for 4-10 Nov 2013 Observed 4-10 Nov 2013

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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