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1. Insurance Industry Update Royce G. Imhoff, II
President
Independent Distribution
American General Life Companies
2. This presentation contains representations of future trends observed by the speaker and his belief of the direction of the life insurance industry. However, such forward looking statements are subject to conditions for which the speaker did not anticipate occurring or which occurred to the magnitude that was not anticipated. The speaker disclaims any liability for any action taken by a member of the audience based on the forward looking statements made as part of this presentation.
3. External Market Factors Unprecedented economic environment
January 2009 unemployment rate rises to 7.6%, highest level since 1992(a)
U.S economy shrank in 4Q08, fastest rate since 1982(b)
Consumer spending declined by an annualized 4.3% in 4Q08, biggest drop since 1980(b)
January 2009 GDP showed the U.S. facing worst economic downturn since WWII(c)
4. As a Result of Market Factors Capital markets remain “very tight,” and when financing is available, it is very costly
Credit crunch in the Fall 2008 resulted into Wall Street’s biggest crises since the Great Depression(d)
Banks used the injection of government funds to strengthen their balance sheets rather than lend(d)
Channels of credit have been constructed, cutting off crucial funds to consumers and businesses(d)
5. Industry Sales by Product Line
6. Life Insurer Company Ratings Fourth Quarter 2008
7. Life Insurer Company Ratings – Widespread Downgrades …But Just Six Months Later, Downgrades Spread to Major Stock Carriers (All Ratings as of April 15, 2009)
8. Economic Effect on Carrier Ratings As a result of the economic changes few life insurance carriers have been
unaffected. Among highly rated carriers, only one upgrade was made by
any rating agency over the last 4 months.
9. How Have Carriers Responded? Exited the market
Raised rates
Increased policy fees
Lowered commissions
Removed policy conversion privilege from term to guaranteed UL
Implications due to XXX/AXXX reserve requirements
10. High Reserves Required Because of high statutory reserve requirements (e.g., AXXX/XXX), life insurers must finance the “redundant reserves” associated with Guaranteed Premium Life insurance:
Level term
Return of premium term
Universal life insurance
11. XXX/AXXX History
12. What Is The Problem?
13. Potential impact varies by product and length of guarantee
14. The “Redundant” Reserve
15. Financing “Redundant” Reserves
16. What is the Timeline for Change? Unlike “XXX” in 2000, no deadline to reflect new economic realities
Costs of securitization tend to be guaranteed for a short term
Companies could run out of capacity as arrangements expire
Impact likely spread out over a year or more
Industry is currently about 4 months into this issue
17. Potential Price Increase
18. Variable Annuities with Living Benefits From 2007-2008 carriers became aggressive with assumptions (5-7% annual growth, double benefit base of initial investment in 10 years)
At the end of 2008
Loss of fees from eroded values of assets under management
Increased hedging costs for underlying derivatives supporting living benefits, such as guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits and guaranteed death benefits
19. Variable Annuity with Living Benefit Changes Starting in the fourth quarter 2008 carriers
Removed living benefits from the market entirely
Removed living benefits from certain products and/or investment strategies
Raised fees across the board on living benefit riders
20. Possible Outcomes are Positive Continued contraction of product availability and simplification
Continued product innovation
Innovative financing solutions
Aggressive reserve funding assumptions
Increasing pressure for regulatory change/relief
Further industry consolidation
Companies will be become more niched
21.
Questions?
22.
Thank You!
23. Important Information