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Review Question. How do you find simple probability? P(event) = Favorable Outcomes Total Outcomes. 3-5 Simple Probability Day 2. Discussion.

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Review Question

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  1. Review Question How do you find simple probability? P(event) = Favorable Outcomes Total Outcomes

  2. 3-5 Simple Probability Day 2

  3. Discussion A game of chance was created at a local carnival. If you roll a 1-4, you win. If you roll a 5 or 6, you lose. Would you play this game? Why or why not?

  4. Today’s Objective You will be able to calculate simple probability and apply it to games of chance.

  5. Example 1 A game of chance was created at a local carnival. If you roll a 1-2, you win. If you roll a 3-5, you lose. If you roll a 6, you roll again. P(win) = P(lose) = Would you play this game? Why or why not?

  6. Example 2 Standard deck of 52 cards (4 suits – hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades) (13 cards/suit – 2-10, J, Q, K, A) A game of chance was created based on picking out particular cards. Consider each event on the next slide as a separate game. Calculate the probability of each event happening then decide if you should play the game or not.

  7. Example 2 Game 1: P(3) = Game 2: P(club) = Game 3: P(# < 4) = Does this mean that you will lose when you play these games?

  8. You Try! A spinner has the numbers 1 through 12 on it. If you spin 1 - 4, you win. If you spin 5 - 12, you lose. 1. What is the probability that you win? 2. What is the probability that you lose? Should you play this game? Why or why not? How could they change the game to make it fair?

  9. What did we learn today? To calculate simple probability and apply it to games of chance

  10. Review Question How do you find simple probability? P(event) = Favorable Outcomes Total Outcomes

  11. 3-5 Simple Probability Day 2

  12. Discussion A weatherman makes a prediction on what the weather is going to be tomorrow. How does he make this prediction? Is his prediction going to be exactly right? Is his prediction going to be close? Why?

  13. Discussion Notice how the forecast is based on probability. Even though the prediction isn’t perfect, it will be close. We can do the same thing with different things in life. That is, we can use probability to predict what is going to happen.

  14. Discussion A game of chance was created at a local carnival. If you roll a 1-3, you win. If you roll a 4-6, you lose. P(Lose) = If you played the game 10 times, how many times do you expect to lose?

  15. Discussion Does that mean you will lose exactly 5 times? Do you think you will lose 1 time? Do you think you will lose 9 times? Notice how 5 is a good guess as to what is likely to happen.

  16. Discussion Probability just represents a chance of something happening. It does not mean that it is exactly what is going to happen. It is sort of a guess. Today, we will be making guesses based on probability. Over the next couple of days, you will see that math makes really good guesses as to what is going to happen.

  17. Today’s Objective You will be able to make a guess as to the result of a game of chance.

  18. Green Blue Yellow Example 1 How often should you get each color? P(blue) = P(green) = P(yellow) =

  19. Green Blue Yellow Example 1 You spin the spinner 20 times. How many times should you get each color? Blue: Green: Yellow: Does that mean you will get each color that many times?

  20. Example 2 How often should you get each spin? P(shaded) = P(# < 5) = P(8 or 9) =

  21. Example 2 You spin the spinner 24 times. How many times should you get each spin? Shaded: # < 5: 8 or 9: Does that mean you will get each number that many times?

  22. You Try! 1. There are 4 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, 7 green marbles, and 1 yellow marbles in a bag. Suppose one marble is selected at random. Find the probability of each event. a. P(blue) = b. P(yellow) = c. P(green) = d. P(red) =

  23. You Try! 2. If you picked out a marble 80 times, how many times should you get each color? a. Blue: b. Yellow: c. Green: d. Red:

  24. What did we learn today? To make a guess as to the result of a game of chance

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