Official statistics for public administration in modern economy and information society

1. Officialstatisticsfor public administrationin modern economy and informationsociety Józef Oleński LazarskiUniversity Postgraduatestudies Master of Public Administration Warszawa, grudzień 2011

2. Projekt : „Odpowiedź na wyzwania gospodarki opartej na wiedzy: nowy program nauczania na WSHiP”. Projekt współfinansowany ze środków Unii Europejskiej w ramach Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego.

3. AgendaWhat MPA shouldknowaboutofficialstatistics? Informartioninfrastructure of modern economu Role of officialstatistics in the informationinfrastructure of economyu Global system of officialstatistics European Statistical System (ESS) of the European Union Models of nationalstatistical system in the EU countries System of officialstatistics in Poland – mission, legalfoundations, organization, functioning Cooperation of officialstatistics with otherinfrastructuralinformationsystems of the state Officialstatistics – information and analyticalsupport for public administration

4. „Modern economy”and itsinformationfoundations Globalization Institutionalization Infrastructuralization of development rozwoju Metropolization Autonomization of financialsector from real economy Information society Knowledge-basedeconomy Active role of informationsector Decisive role of mass media

5. Globalization Global markets and economicsectors Global economic and socialentities Fuzzyeconomic and socialborders of states Global supranationalinstitutionalregulationslimitingsouvereignity of states Decisions and activities of nationalinstitutions and subjectneedglobalinformation

6. „Institionalization” • Increase of importance of public sector of economy • Deepinstitutionalinterventionism on: • Global, regional, national, sectorial and localscale • „Laws” – the tool of decisionmaking and operative management • „Economicnumerology” • Decionsbased on statistical data (e.g. 55%, 3%, GDP per capita)?) • „Neomonopolization” based on „laws” and „standards”” • Reduction of free market to marketplace and bazaar • Bureacratization, „procedurization” i „pettifoggerization” of laws

7. Quality of law determines the quality of state …..złe prawo gorsze niźli tyran najsroższy. Bo wżdy tyran albo odmienić się, albo namówić, albo umrzeć może i jego tyraństwo ustaje. A złe prawo zawżdy trwa, zawżdy zabija i szkodę czyni i na duszy, i na ciele. Jest jako lew i bestyja nierozumna, która namówić się nie da, aż ją zabić i umorzyć. Tak i złe prawo, które szkody ludziom czyni miasto pomocy, dla której wszystkie się prawa stawią. Rektor Uniwersytetu Stefana Batorego Ks. Piotr Skarga Kazania sejmowe

8. Infrastructuralization of development • Security of society and economy – access to strategicresources • Infrastructurallevelisdecisive for the development of economy and society • Political, social (political, humanaandsocialcapital) • Legal and organizational (laws and insititutions) • Technical: transport, energy, • Informational • Critical infrastructures: • Socialinfrastructure • Laws and organization • Information (resources and systems) • Control of infrastructural system by the stateis the prerequisite of souvereignity

9. Metropolization of development • Concentration of resources in metropolies • Political and administrativecentres • Science and universities • Financial centres • Decisionalcentres of real economy • Types of metropolies • Local • National • Regional • Global • Development of metropoliesbased on resources of other regions • Metropolitan synergyeffect: economicgravitation, „economicblack hole syndrome” • Polarization of regional development on globalscale (centers and perifral regions) EU casestudy

10. Financial sectortorn out from real economy • Global financialsector • Global financialinstytutions • Position of financialsectordetermined by laws and instytutions • „Virtualization” of financialprocesses • Legalasymmetry and absolutesupremacy of financialsectorover real economy • Relations betweenfinancialsector and real economydetermined by laws and stateinstitutions

11. Global informationsociety • Growinginformation minima • Civilizational • Functional • Sytuational • Growinginformationgaps • Growingdemand for information • Growingsupply of informaion • Absoluteasymmetrybetweenproducers and users of information • Dominatingposition of globalinformationintermediaries • Mass production of informationwithoutqualitystandards and theircontrol • Socialinformation order requires • Adequatelevel of socialinformationculture • Linguistictransparency („one language”)

12. Fundamental law of information in knowledgebasedeconomy Worseinformation ouststbetterinformation Wiedza (informacja) staje się towarem na rynku informacyjnym Rynek wzmacnia wypieranie informacji lepszej przez gorszą Etyka – jedynym gwarantem jakości informacji Etyka wzmocniona przez egzekwowalne normy informacyjne – warunkiem i gwarantem społecznego ładu informacyjnego Statystyka publiczna – narzędziem ograniczenia skutków fundamentalnego prawa informacji w zakresie swojego oddziaływania

13. Konwledge-basedeconomy Information dependent technologicalprodress Information components in technologies Human capitaldecisive for R&D National R&D and education – prerequisite of absorption of progress Concentration of newresearches and development works in globalscale Polarization of regions and countriescaused by nationaldifferences in human and socialcapital

14. Role of informationsector and mass media • Industrialproduction and dissemination of informationrealizing the functions of • Reresentation of real world • Formation of resources of knwledge • Decisionsupport • Control of processes • Consumption • Commercialization of informationsector • Domination of information for concumption • Pollution of information environment • Mass media determining the quality of information environment • Officialstatisticsis the segment of non – commercialsector of information

15. Officialstatistics and socialinformation order Global information order – prerequisite of economic, political and social order OfficialStatisticsis the globalinformation system respectingscientific and ethicalstandards Dynamics of social and economicprocesses and theirinterrelationsrequisestatisticalobservation and monitoring on globalscale

16. Mission of officialstatistics– globalsocialinformationsecurity and safety • Global informationstandards • Global statisticalolanguage • Global statistical system • Identification and modeling of processes • Measuring • Collectinginformation • Maintenance of informationresources • Dissemination of information as public good

17. Global statisticalstandards Metastandards Concepts and definitions Classifications, nomenclatures, typologies Methods of measuring Standards of production of derived data Standards for coordiantion of information Information standards in science and technology Information standardsused in economy and politics Officialstatisticsisauthorized by laws to produce and disseminateinformationstandards for public use

18. Institutions of global system of officialstatistics UN statisticalcommission UN regionalcommissions UN Conference of EuropeanStatisticians OECD statistical service EUROSTAT

19. Three determinants of development of official statistics in EU • Information infrastructure of the EU and in the EU-member countries • Fundametal law of information in knowledge -based economy • Fundamenal law of progress in official statistics

20. 1. Integrity of information infrastructure – prerequisite of transparency of single market • Information infrastructure is the integrated complex of • Information standards • Information systems • Information resources • Information technologies • Information culture and skills of stakeholders of statistics • Supervised and controlled by insitutions (national, international, supranational) • Necessary for information security in EU • The integrity of information infrastructure in EU countires and on supranational scale determines the informaiton security of EU as a whole

21. 2. Fundametal law of information in knowledge - based economy Worse information ousts better information The FLI is an universal law

22. 3. Fundamental law of progress in official statistics The only internal driving power of progress in official statistics is its INERTIA • The FLoPOS is acting on all levels and in all systems official statistics

23. Institutional setup of NSS Principles Laws Practices

24. Principles • Fundamental principles of official statistics, UNECE resolution 1992 • ISI code of statistical ethics 1985 • EU code of best practices • National codes of statistical ethics and best practices

25. Laws • EU laws and resolutions on official satististics of the European Parliament and European Council • EC directives on official statistics • Decisions of the ESSC • Recommendations of Eurostat • National statistical laws • National statistical governmental regulations and decisions • Problem to be solved: • orchestration and harmonization of laws, recommendations and decisions

26. European statistical practices „embarras de richesse” • Variety of institutional national models of official statistics: • Scandinavian (centralized) • Anglo-Saxon (decentralized) • French (central – regionalized) • German (federal) • Greek (distributed) • Variety of national information environments • Administrative information systems of governments • Information regulations of economic activity • Variety of interrelations between official statistics and non-statistical information systems • Complementarity vs. Substitution • Coordination models of information infrastructure

27. NSI’s standing within public administration • Ministry of statistics – Chief Statistician in the rank of a minister of the government • Central statistical office – Chief Statistician reporting to the president, parliament or prime minister, • Central statistical office – Chief Statistician reporting to the minister of …interior, finance, economy… ??? • Central co-ordinating unit in the office of prime minister – distributed and decntralized statistical production managed by ministries and other offices Dillema: „das Soll vs. Das Sein” statistical laws vs. political position of other central and regional organs and governments

28. NSI’s co-ordinating role in the national statistical system • Coordinating competences of the NSI: • Information infrastructure of the state • Information standards (concepts, definitions, classifications, registers etc.) • Official statistical services of other ministires • Coordinating instruments • Multi-annual programs of development of statistical capacity and production • Annual programs of surveys • Information standards introduced by law • Coordinating organs • National statistical council (board) • Chief statistician as the organ of government • Other coordinating organs

29. Appointment and termination of contracts of top managers – core of efficient management of NSS Case study of Poland • Appointment procedure for „central offices” • Open competition • Candidates are evaluated by the jury nominated by prime minister • Prime minister is selecting the chief statistician from candidates who positively passed the procedure • Prime minister nominates the chief statisticians for 5 years turn • Termination of the contract • In any moment – decision of the prime minister

30. Independence of official statistics and its prerequisites Law – driven governance and supervision of ESS and NSI Political culture of politicians Information culture of politicians – good information is expensive, but lack of good information is much more expensive Political culture of statisticians - political mission of statistics is telling the whole truth Budget for statistics based on realistic costs of statistical surveys and services (costs of maintenance of resources and costs of surveys)

31. Decision making process of development of official statistics • Strategy of development of national statistics - SDNS – „Mission and Vision” • Long - term program of development of official statistics (15 years horizon) adopted as governmental official document • Operational programs of statistical acitvities of government • Multi – annual program of surveys • Annual program of surveys (base for budgeting) • Program of maintenance and upgrading of the NSS and NSI • Permanent official statistical services (dissemination, assistance to users, education and training of stakeholders, supplying data to international organizations etc.) • Program of research, incl. international cooperation in R & D

32. Decision gaps Weakness of long term and multi – annual programs Annual budgeting vs. multinannual program „Additive budgeting” independent on real costs of surveys and activities (B{t-1}x {1+Infl.}) Weak coordinating position of NSI’s in relation to ministries, central banks and other governmental organs

33. Resources of NSS • Resources of • national statistical offices • other national statistical services • information environment of official statistics • Problem: • legal frames and capacity of NSI necessary for managemenet of resources of NSS

34. Maintenance of resources • Intellectual infrastructure • Statistical staff • R & D units of NSI’s • External experts and institutes • Information infrastructure: • information bases • meta and parainformation systems • Technical infrastructure (ICT, offices, etc.) • Problem: • Budget of NSI systematic financing of maintenance of resources

35. Development of resources • Research and development • National R & D capacity • ESS-net • European centers of excellence • Eurostat R & D staff • Education and training • Modernization of program of university education • Training of European Statisticians – TES - EMOS • Education and training of national statisticians • Upgrading of statistical ICT • Systematic upgrading of ICT of statistical offices • Special statistical software

36. Development of statistical information environment • Coordinating competences of NSI’s in designing and implementing of ICT - based administrative information systems: • Information standards for administtative procedures and systems • Administrative registers: population, land, businessendards • Primary registers of businesses • Infrastructural information systems of governments (especially: taxes, social insurance, heath insurance, • Management of „inter-ministerial” registers • E.g. businesses, population, territorial units

37. Conflicts in planning and execution of resources • „Conflict of interest” between multi-annual programming and realization of statistical surveys and annual budgeting of government • Policy of budget cuts • Reduction of costs of statistcs vs. financing of R&D, education and upgrading of infrastructure • The reduction of costs is achieved by: • Lower quality of metadata, data and services • Reduction of R&D • Lower level of ICT • Cuts in intellectual capital of statistics (experts, education, training)

38. Quality control of statistics Integration of data capturing and editing Strong frames Direct use of primary records Use of administrative data Electronic intelligent questionnaires Non-conventional sources of information Extended editing: full formal and logic control, using historical data Integrated metadata and data bases Full docummenting of methodology of surveys Ex-ante and ex-post audit of surveys

39. Quality assurance Need of strenghtening the control of quality Single survey – independent methodological standards obligatory for all NSS (including ministries) Methodological audit ex ante of each survey (methodological „imprimatur” ) Maintenance of methodological integrity of data resources

40. Official statistics produced outside the NSI’s • Assymetry of statistical competences between ministries and NSI’s • Ministries are treating their statistics like any other administrative system • Problems: • obeying metodological standards and methodological transparency by ministries • To weak methodological coordination from the part of the NSI • Production of semi-official data by ministries

41. Official statistical services as public good • Database – driven dissemination of statisical information • Profiled information services for VIP’s • Problem – oriented analyses • Statistical consultative support of public administration and governments • Official statistician • Information researcher and supporter of public sector and research • Paid services for commercial sector

42. Access to statistical data and metadata • Pressure of givernments and businesses on access to microdata • Opening the access of governments to microdata will be the end of good official statistics • NSI’s and Eurostat should protect microdata by: • Offering high level statistical services to users • Building and maintaining databases containing statistical microaggregates and time series • Databases storing microdata should be accessible only for statisticians compiling data on request of users

43. Eurostat as supranational statistical office of EU • Statistical office of EU Commission and institutions • Identification of EU statistical needs • Common EU program of official statistics • Collection of output data from NSI’s • Coordinator of ESS • Programming of ESS surveys • Coordinaiton of statistical production for EU needs • Elaborating information metastandards and standards for information systems of public sector • European R&D and education institute • R&D projects • Pilot implementations • Statistical education • ESS-net

44. EU code of statistical best practice • The „best” does not mean „good” or even „admissible” in other environment • Adoption of EU code of practice to national specificity • Official recommendation of national version of the EU code of practice by respective law • Dissemination of UNFP, ISI Code, EU Code • Official national recommendations • Education and training: university professors should be acquainted with the codes of ethics and practices • Independent audit of methods and surveys

45. Conclusions • SDES - Strategy of Development of European Statistics – mission and vision of ESS elaborated under the auspices of ESGAB and updated • Centralized co-ordination (not management) of ESS • Partnership relations between statistical offices and services on national and supranational level • Harmonization and integration of ESS by programs, metadata and methodological standards • Position of Eurostat in EC directorates and commissioners

46. Thank you

47. Główny Urząd Statystycznywraz z wojewódzkimi Urzędami Statystycznymi • System statystyki publicznej Polski jest • Ważnym segmentem infrastruktury informacyjnej kraju • Integralną częścią globalnego i europejskiego systemu statystycznego • Misja GUS - współkształtowanie społecznego ładu informacyjnego i infrastruktury informacyjnej kraju przez: • Normy informacyjne, w tym rejestry urzędowe • Zasoby informacyjne jako dobro publiczne należne • Aktywne wsparcie informacyjne i analityczne organów państwa, nauki, organizacji społecznych, biznesu • Programowanie badań statystycznych statystyki publicznej i ich koordynacja • Realizacja badań statystycznych statystyki centralnej • Wspomaganie oficjalnych badań statystycznych prowadzonych przez inne instytucje państwowe • Harmonizacja i współpraca z globalnymi i europejskimi systemami statystycznymi • Koordynacja i realizacja badań naukowych • Edukacja statystyczna

48. Statystyka publiczna podstawą funkcjonowania państwa Zrozumienie znaczenia infrastruktury informacyjnej w globalnym społeczeństwie informacyjnym i w gospodarce opartej na wiedzy Właściwa ranga jakości informacji, norm informacyjnych, w tym norm statystycznych Infrastrukturalne podejście do statystyki publicznej, w tym zapewnienie warunków rozwoju Przestrzeganie Fundamentalnych Zasad Statystyki Publicznej ONZ Właściwa ranga rozwoju kultury i edukacji informacyjnej, w tym kultury statystycznej i edukacji statystycznej dla państwa, społeczeństwa i gospodarki

49. Information transparency and officialstatistics • Information transparencyis the prerequisite of political, social and economic partnership and cooperation ; • Mission of nationalstatistical offices isto protectinternationalinformation transparency; • Jointstatistical parainformation platformis the optimaltoolof supporting transparency in heterogeneous international environment. • Time to go beyond statistical variables • from data through information to knowledge

50. Officialstatistics – where we go ? From paper questionnaires to electronic data capturing From questionnaires to administrative records From national systems to international and global integration From statistical variables to statisticalinformation (from tables to data analyses) From statisticalinformation to knowledge on social and economicprocesses and phenomena