DS 113 – Devt Perspectives II

1. DS 113 – Devt Perspectives II Module IV: Population and Devt Lecture I Instructor: Vedasto Hamza Institute of Development Studies [IDS] University of Dar es Salaam DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

2. Why is this module important? • This module intends to introduce you to key issues on popn and devt. • Specifically, it introduces you to key concepts and debates on popn and devt so that each one can develop her/his own perspective on popn and devteg.Popn and food security, population and poverty, popn and the ecology, popn and secio-economic devt, etc. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

3. What will we cover? In this module we will cover four subtopics: • Overview and fundamental concepts • Theories of population growth and the link to development • Population Growth and Socio-economic Development • Population and Natural Resources DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

4. Overview and fundamental concepts • The tangled relationship between population and development has been a matter of concern since ancient period. • Ever since the central discussion has been whether the rapidly growing population is beneficial or detrimental to development and vice-versa. • After the WWII, the focus to contain the uncontrolled population growth especially in the LDCs as it was attributed to poverty and poor socio-economic advancement. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

5. Fundamental concepts • Human Popnrefers to a total number of people residing in a specified geographical space in a given period of time. eg. Dar es Salaam 4.36M (2012), Tanzania 42m (2012), Africa 1.2 bn (2016), world 7bn (Dec 31st 2011), etc • PopnProcesses/dynamics refer to the levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and migration that determine population size, structure, and change DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

6. Concepts: Popn Processes • Fertility refers to live births to a woman. It reflects the reproductive performance rather than the mere capacity to reproduce. Africa records the highest 5+/woman and Europe the least<1.5/woman • Why variation? Social (eg.level of education), economic (eg. Affluence, subsistence econonmy), cultural (prestige, religious beliefs), political (policies), or biological (fecundity and diseases). DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

7. Concepts: Popn Processes • Mortality refers deaths in a population. It reflects the socio-economic advancement of a given society. The LDC have higher incidents of mortality due to their inefficient and weak health systems eg. Infant and maternal mortalities, road accidents, waterborne and vector-borne mortalities. • Migration refers to the process of permanently changing residence from one geographic location to another involving the change of the total-round of activities. Migration is complex phenomenon driven by a myriad factors • The interaction of the 3 processes determines popn size, structure, and change in different societies. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

8. Other fundamental concepts • popn size – how many people there are in a given place. • Popn change (growth or decline) – how the number of people in that place is changing over time. • popn distribution refers to where people are located and why. • popn structure – how many males and females there are of each age. Also referred to as age-sex structure. • popn policy – a formalized set of procedures designed to achieve a particular pattern of population change eg. The China’s One-child policy (1979-2015). • optimum population size – the number of people that would provide the best balance of people and resources for a desired standard of living DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

9. Popn and Devt: Relationships • Development • Social (Education, WASH, Health, food supply, etc) • Economic (Market, labour, dependency, Resource struggles, ecology etc) • Political (Power and influence, demonstrations, conflict and revolutions) • Population • Change: Increase/Decrease • Size and structure DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

10. End of Lecture I DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

11. Lecture II Popn & Devt: Theoretical Debates DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

12. Popn & Devt: Theoretical Debates Two theoretical orientations will be explored– Optimistic theories vs. pessimistic theories • Pessimistic Theories (Pop↑= ↓Devt) • The British Political economist and demographer, Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) - An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798). • This led to development of the Malthusian Perspective • The book made him the father of demography as all of the later works were influenced by it, positively and negatively DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

13. Popn & Devt: Pessimists (cont..) The perspective was the first to systematically present the social consequences of uncontrolled population growth. The following were TR Malthus 4 arguments: • Humans are nonrational beings compelled with powerful sexual instincts, the urge to reproduce • If popn growth will not be checked (controlled), it will result to catastrophe (poverty, hunger and starvation) as population grows faster (geometrically i.e. 2,4,16..) while food increases arithmetically (1,2,3,4..). DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

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15. Popn & Devt: Pessimists (cont..) • Two popn checks: Positive checks (natural forces, wars,etc) + Preventive checks (abstinence, contraception, and abortion). • To Malthus, moral restraint is the only acceptable means of preventive checks as opposed the other two. Can you guess why? • Contraception and abortion will make people waste their energies in non-productive manners DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

16. Popn & Devt: Pessimists (cont..) • Natural consequence of unchecked popn growth was poverty ie urge to reproduce results to overpopulation + unemployment + ↑food production which compels people to reproduce more • Well educated and rational person would, in advance, perceive the pain of having hungry children or being in debt and would postpone marriage and sexual intercourse until he was sure that he could avoid that pain. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

17. Popn & Devt: Pessimists (cont..) • Malthus really lived what according to what he theorized. Can you even guess at what age did he got married and no. of children he had? • At 39 (in 1805) after getting a secure job as a professor in London and had 3 children… On contrary, Karl Marx critiqued Malthus on moral restraints. • Marx: Married at age of 25 and had 11 children DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

18. Popn & Devt: Critique to Malthusians (Pessimists) • Food production would be outstripped by popn growth. Ignored role of technology and innovation • Poverty as a consequence of popn increase is inevitable. Through well-thought redistributive policies and institution we can alleviate poverty. • Moral restraint as the only acceptable preventive check is not Scientifically justifiable. • Mere moral writings than a systematic theory DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

19. Popn & Devt: Optimists • Optimistic Theories (Pop↑= ↑Devt) • Proponents: Emile Durkheim, Karl Marx and Fredrich Engels, Ester Boserup, etc. Our focus will be on Boserup. • With experience in agro-production in developing countries, Ester Boserup (1910–1999) challenged Malthus’ thesis on the relationship between popn growth and food production in her 1965 work ‘The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure’ DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

20. Popn & Devt: Optimists • Unlike Malthus notion that popn increase will outstip food production, Boserup suggested that food production can/will increase to match popn growth. • Boserup argues that the fear of starvation and need to feed the rapidly increasing popn compel societies to advance farming techniques and invent new/more food production efficient technologies. In her words “necessity is the mother of invention” • This transformation in food production ‘agricultural intensification’ DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

21. Popn & Devt: Optimists • In agro-intensification at household level, a farmer can start using unused fields and even to start irrigation in order to respond the increasing number of family members. • At macro-level what Boserup argued can be witnessed in use of climate resilient Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), use of chemicals, fertilisers and modern machines. • Therefore, Boserup and other optimists hold that there is no popn limit as societies can/will produce in relation to the pace of popn increase DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

22. Popn & Devt: Optimists (Critique) • Romanticises the role of technology and ignore other factors eg. Policies, socio-cultural factors, etc. • Boserup ignores the consequences of rapid popn growth on the environment. • Ignores the current debates of the limit of carrying capacity of the planet ‘earth’ DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

23. End of lecture II DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

24. Lecture III +IV • Population Growth & Socio-economic Development • Population and the Natural Resources DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

25. Popn growth and socio-economic Devt • Debates on the consequences of popn growth on the pace of socio-economic devt have been complex and contentious (revisit our previous lectures). • Between 1945 to mid 1980s, the debates inclined on the thesis that rapid popn growth has negative consequences on socio-economic devt. • The post 1980s the debates disregarded the notion that popn growth tend to be the the sole determinant of socio-development. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

26. Popn & Socio-economic Devt • In essence, the relationships between popn and socio-economic devt is not automatic as it requires systems to establish it. • If inefficiently managed, popn structures lead to dependency, ie. Youth-dependency (Africa) or eldery-dependency (Some European) countries • Developing countries ( Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean) are affected in their pace to achieve socio-economic development as they have huge proportion of youthful popneg. 44% in Tanzania <15 (2012 Census). DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

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30. Popn & Socio-economic Devt • If you clearly scrutinize the popn structures of developing countries (TZ as a case study) what are the socio-economic issues related to devt are coming into your mind? • Poverty due to higher child-dependency ratio • Labour force dynamics • Massive govt spending is services eg. Health and education thus abandoning other sectors • Hidden momentum of popn growth due to large number of youth (sexually active group) DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

31. Popn & Socio-economic Devt • Therefore we to ask ourselves the following questions • Will developing countries be able to improve levels of living given their population growth? • How will developing countries deal with the vast increases in their labor forces? • How will higher population growth rates affect poverty? • However, it should be noted that it doesn’t mean that the population structures in developed countries are without costs. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

32. Population and the Natural Resources • Human popn has been associated with ecological disturbances especially natural resources degradation. • With rapidly increasing popn compels more inventions in order to fulfill the needs of each individual, thus expansion of production activities and other related activities – food production, industrial production, mining, lumbering, transportation, energy and power generation, etc. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

33. Population and the Natural Resources • All those activities have massive detrimental impacts on natural resources eg. Land, forests, atmosphere, water sources, biodiversity etc. • In reality human activities pose threats for the extinction of the human race due to increasing temperate, sea level, melting of ice in earth-poles, tempered ecosystem, etc. • Understanding the relationship between population and development is thus centred on examining the impacts of human activities on resources, its effects and the way forward. DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

34. Population and the Natural Resources • Agriculture • Mining • Transport/construction • Energy generation • Industrial Production, etc. Think on how all these activities negatively affect: land; air; environment; climatic conditions; health; political (peace)and social systems

35. Way forward Making population be beneficial to development requires a combination of many factors/forces, the key ones being: • Effective, efficient and relevant national population policy (which considers the roles of education, health, science and technology etc.) • Effective political system • Relevant human and social capital devt programmes • Willingness and commitment in making population increase and development match (Optimum popn) • Proper utilization of resources available

36. What is your perspective on the relationship btnpopn and dvt? DS 113 [Population and Dev't]

37. End of Module IV All the best DS 113 [Population and Dev't]