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Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774)

Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774). Switzerland’s Socio-Economic Achievements in terms of Sustainable Development (1990-2007) Jieun Lee Alexandra Patru Michael Karner 4/4 December 2009. I. Hypothesis.

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Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774)

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  1. Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences(E774) Switzerland’s Socio-Economic Achievements in terms of Sustainable Development (1990-2007) Jieun Lee Alexandra Patru Michael Karner 4/4 December 2009

  2. I. Hypothesis • Sustainable Development according to the Brundtland Commission (1987): “sustainable development meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (UN, 1987). • Perspective: In our research, we defined sustainable development as “a general improvement in socio-economic indicators”, especially with regard to the economic development variables (wealth, efficiency, investment and employment) and social development variables (life expectancy, education, gender equality and security). • General Research Question: Determination of the “significant differences” in socio-economic indicators between two periods: i)1990-1999 and ii)2000-2009. H0: There is no significant difference in Switzerland’s sustainable development achievements between the 1990-1999 and 2000-2009 periods. H1: There is a significant difference in Switzerland’s sustainable development achievements between the 1990-1999 and 2000-2009 periods. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  3. I. Hypothesis (cont’d) • Conduction of literature review to gather the most conventional socio-economic indicators of sustainable development or quality of life. Based on the literature review, our group established our own Sustainable Development Index (SDI) index. • Our computed SDI index is the average of the standardized economic development variables (wealth, efficiency, investment and employment) and social development variables (life expectancy, education, gender equality and security). • Validity: We established our own SDI index during our work, which aims at accurately reflecting the concept of sustainable development and analyzing the socio-economic improvement of Switzerland during the two tested periods. We measured the data using one, unified index. • Reliability: The dataset is consistent, although some observations for the variables were missing. Due to the fact that we conducted our research based on secondary data, we cannot control information on data collection and compilation methods, sampling techniques. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  4. II. Statistical Techniques • Policy Paper 1 • Graphical Presentations 2. Policy Paper 2 • Describing 1) Center, 2)Variability, 3) Symmetry and 4) Kurtosis • Comparing Means 3. Policy Paper 3 • Correlation • Regression • Usage of our computed SDI index QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  5. III. Results: PP1Conventional Indicators 1. Health 4. Gender Equality Increase in women participation in parliament and decrease in wage difference between gender. 5. Environment 2. Education Increase in teenage reading skills & people educated and involved in science and technology. 3. Wealth QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  6. III. Results: PP1 (cont’d)Unconventional Indicators 1. Unemployment & Youth Unemployment (Unit=%) *Note: <YUNEMP> is % of total labor force, 19-24; <UNEMP> is % of total labor force. 2. Poverty 3. Crime Increase in proportion of working people living below poverty line. Violent crimes per 100,000 people has almost doubled in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  7. III. Results: PP21) Center, 2)Variability, 3) Symmetry and 4) Kurtosis 1. SDIecon: Summary Index of Major Economic Indicators 2. SDIsocio: Summary Index of Major Social Indicators QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  8. III. Results: PP2Economic Variables QM_MDEV_E774(2009) *Source: Data_3 Swiss and computed by STATA by group. *Note: <SDIeco> isthe summary SDI of major economic indicators.

  9. III. Results: PP2 (cont’d) Social Variables QM_MDEV_E774(2009) *Source: Data_3 Swiss and computed by STATA by group. *Note: <SDIsocio> isthe summary SDI of major social indicators.

  10. III. Results: PP3Correlation Analysis 1990-1999 2000-2006 *Source: Data__3 Swiss and computed by STATA by group. *Note: <Inincome> is the log of income variable, GDP per capita in Swiss franc; <INVY> stands for Investment to GDP ratio; <BIRD> stands for biodiversity-populations of breeding birds; <FRETR > stands for freight transport; <INTU> stands for internet users per 100 people; and <DEBT> stands for public debt. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  11. III. Results: PP3 (cont’d) Regression Analysis 1990-1999 2000-2006 R-squared(1990-1999): 0.95 R-squared (2000-2006): 0.87 Significant Variables(1990-1999): INVY (p-value: 0.028), INTU (p-value: 0.078) Significant Variable(2000-2006): LNINCOME (p-value: 0.065) QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  12. III. Results: PP3 (cont’d) Post-Regression Analysis QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  13. Part IV: Conclusions • In our consecutive research on Switzerland’s socio-economic achievements, our group has reported a time series trend of the country’s major socio-economic indicators (PP1) and the significant differences in the means of those indicators between the 1990-1999 and 2000-2007 periods (PP2). Furthermore, the correlation and regression analysis of the two tested periods (PP3) have led us to the conclusion that there is a “significant difference” in Switzerland’s sustainable development achievements between the two tested periods. This showcases the improvement of Switzerland’s “sustainable development” according to our research. • Our group tried to establish our own SDI index based on conventional socio-economic indicators of sustainable development and tried to incorporate new important variables which were often neglected in previous studies such as efficiency and security. This SDI index was useful in analyzing the general improvement of Switzerland’s major socio-economic indicators from 1990-2007. • Through the policy papers, we were able to build different statistical tools and to approach an issue in debt by using statistical software (STATA). QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  14. V. Further Studies 1. The secondary data which we based our research on had many missing values. The quality of the research may be improved by extending the observation on our analyzed variables. 2. Our conducted SDI Index may not have given enough emphasis to environmental issues which are increasingly important in the literature of sustainable development. Further studies are recommended to incorporate environmental variables that would better outline the interdisciplinary nature of sustainable development. Also, the validity of our computed SDI index should be tested in larger samples and different regions. 3. Finally, by using more advanced time series regression models, we may better understand socio-economic development, in general and in particular for the Switzerland case study. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  15. References • United Nations. 1987."Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development." • General Assembly Resolution 42/187, 11 December 1987. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

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