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The Nuclear Club

The Nuclear Club. Who’s in? Who’s out? And where do we go from here?. From Einstein to the A-Bomb. 1930’s- Early research into atomic fission. 1940’s- US and Germany race to develop nuclear weapons. “Manhattan Project” in US. 1945. 1 st US test of atomic bomb [“Trinity”]

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The Nuclear Club

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  1. The Nuclear Club Who’s in? Who’s out? And where do we go from here?

  2. From Einstein to the A-Bomb • 1930’s- Early research into atomic fission. • 1940’s- US and Germany race to develop nuclear weapons. • “Manhattan Project” in US

  3. 1945 • 1st US test of atomic bomb [“Trinity”] • US drops 2 atomic bombs on Japan to end WWII

  4. The Cold War: 1945 – 1990 • Massive nuclear build-up by US and USSR • Espionage • “Mutually assured destruction” [MAD]

  5. 1950s • US and Soviet Union develop more powerful nuclear fusion weapons. [Thermonuclear] • Atmospheric testing

  6. IAEA: UN Nuclear watchdog • Founded 1957 – International Atomic Energy Administration • Nuclear verification and security; safety; technology transfer. • Nuclear safety after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. • Challenges possible proliferation - North Korea, Iraq, Iran http://www.iaea.org/

  7. Cold War nuclear crisis: 1962

  8. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: • Non-proliferation • Disarmament • The right to peacefully use nuclear technology • 181 nations have signed • Non-signers: India, Pakistan, Israel • North Korea – withdrew in 2003 http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/

  9. NPT: Issues • Reviewed every 5 years • 2000 – Nuclear powers agreed to eliminate nuclear arsenals • 2005 – Concerns by non-aligned nations that NATO nuclear-sharing agreement violates NPT. • Nuclear powers not doing enough to reduce their arsenals At the seventh Review

  10. Today: Nuclear numbers

  11. Emerging threats: Direct nuclear confrontations • India – Pakistan • US – Iran • Israel – Arab nations • North Korea – Japan/China/US/Others? • China – North Korea? Russia?

  12. Emerging threats • Post-Cold-War “first-use” policy by NATO and Russia • Continuing modernization of nuclear arsenals

  13. Emerging threats • Security and safety of nuclear stockpiles • “Loose nukes”

  14. Emerging threats • Nuclear espionage • Illegal sales • Smuggling In 2004, Dr. A.Q. Kahn, of Pakistan, admitted to selling nuclear technologies to Libya, Iran and North Korea

  15. Nuclear Terrorism • Dirty bombs • High explosives plus radioactive material

  16. Emerging threats:New nuclear nations

  17. Emerging threats:Accidents

  18. Nuclear weapons: The next generation • “Small” nuclear weapons • “Bunker-buster” • US - $5 billion per year for weapons research, development, and production $3.8 billion during the Cold War.

  19. Steps to prevent nuclear terrorism • Secure nuclear warheads and materials • Stop nuclear smuggling • Stabilize employment for nuclear personnel • Monitor nuclear stockpiles • Reduce nuclear stockpiles • End production http://www.nti.org/

  20. How much progress has been made so far? The good news… • Glaring security gaps have been addressed in many places • Thousands of bombs-worth of nuclear materials have been destroyed • Radiation-detection equipment in place at many border crossings around the world • Many nuclear scientists have been re-employed in non-weapons programs.

  21. Progress: the bad news… • US/India nuclear deal includes no provision for nuclear security • Secure storage facility in Russia still empty • Thousands of nuclear weapons and materials in insecure buildings and bunkers • Thousands of nuclear workers with potentially dangerous nuclear knowledge do not have legitimate jobs • 10,000+ bombs’-worth of plutonium still out there

  22. Some questions to consider • Why should any country be banned from having nuclear weapons? • Is it the inherent right of a country to develop any weapons it feels necessary to defend itself? • Is it even possible to ban a particular category of weapons? • If you keep a country out of the Nuclear Club, do you lose the ability to influence its decisions regarding nuclear weapons?

  23. More questions • If the US—the world’s strongest power—feels the need to continue developing nukes, how can we expect less powerful countries to resist getting them? • Can nuclear weapons themselves be viewed as a deterrent to war? • Or, is “deterrence,” in effect, an incentive for more proliferation? • What are the ethical and moral considerations for scientists who help develop new nuclear technologies? • What role could your country play in making today’s nuclear world safer?

  24. The Nuclear Club:What’s next?

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