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Engineering Probability and Statistics - SE-205 -Chap 1

Engineering Probability and Statistics - SE-205 -Chap 1. By S. O. Duffuaa. Course Objectives. Introduce the students to basic probability and statistics and demonstrate its wide application in the area of Systems Engineering. Main Course Outcomes. Students should be able to perform :

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Engineering Probability and Statistics - SE-205 -Chap 1

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  1. Engineering Probability and Statistics - SE-205 -Chap 1 By S. O. Duffuaa

  2. Course Objectives • Introduce the students to basic probability and statistics and demonstrate its wide application in the area of Systems Engineering.

  3. Main Course Outcomes • Students should be able to perform: • Summarize and present data • Describe probability distributions • Compute probabilities using density/mass functions • Conduct interval estimation • Make inference about populations • Use statistical package/Minitab

  4. Text Book and References • “Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers “ by D. C. Montgomery and Runger, 1994. • “Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists” 5th by Walpole and Mayers. • Statistics by Murry Speigel

  5. Course Policy • Home-works and attendance 15% • Quizzes 15% • Exam1 20% • Exam II 20% • Final Exam 30%

  6. SE- 205 Place in SE Curriculum • Central Course • Prerequisite for 7 SE courses • SE 303, SE 320, SE 323, SE 325, SE 447, SE 480, SE 463 and may be others. See SE Curriculum Tree

  7. Engineering Problem Solving • Develop clear and concise problem description • Identify the important factors in the problem. • Propose a model for the problem • Conduct appropriate experimentation • Refine the model

  8. Engineering Problem Solving • Validate the solution • Conclusion and recommendations

  9. Statistics • Science of data collection, summarization, presentation and analysis for decision making. • How to collect data ? • How to summarize it ? • How to present it ? • How do you analyze it and make conclusions and correct decisions ?

  10. Role of Statistics • Many aspects of Engineering deals with data – Product and process design • Identify sources of variability • Essential for decision making

  11. Data Collection • Observational study • Observe the system • Historical data • The objective is to build a system model usually called empirical models

  12. Data Collection • Design of experiment • Plays key role in engineering design

  13. Statistics • Divided into: • Descriptive Statistics • Inferential Statistics

  14. Forms of Data Description • Point summary • Tabular format • Graphical format • Diagrams

  15. Point Summary • Central tendency measures • Mean  xi/n • Median --- Middle value • Mode --- Most frequent value

  16. Point Summary • Variability measures • Range = Max xi - Min xi • Variance = V =  (xi – x )2/ n-1 • Standard deviation = S S = Square root (V) • Coefficient of variation = S/ x

  17. Dot Diagram • A diagram that has on the x-axis the points plotted : Given the following grades of a class: 50, 23, 40, 90, 95, 10, 80, 50, 75, 55, 60, 40. . . . . 0 50 100

  18. Dot Diagram • A diagram that has on the x-axis the points plotted : Given the following grades of a class: 50, 23, 40, 90, 95, 10, 80, 50, 75, 55, 60, 40. . . . . 0 50 100

  19. Time Frequency Plot

  20. Time Frequency Plot

  21. Control Charts Upper control limit = 100.5 x = 91.50 Lower control limit = 82.54

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