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OTB Kickoff Meeting December 1, 2011

Developing an Integrated Assessment Model for Old Tampa Bay: Request for Input and Discussion from OTB Working Group and Stakeholders. OTB Kickoff Meeting December 1, 2011. Project Goal. 2009 Pyrodinium bahamense bloom.

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OTB Kickoff Meeting December 1, 2011

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  1. Developing an Integrated Assessment Model for Old Tampa Bay:Request for Input and Discussion from OTB Working Group and Stakeholders OTB Kickoff Meeting December 1, 2011

  2. Project Goal 2009 Pyrodinium bahamense bloom • Develop and evaluate management actions in Old Tampa Bay to improve this segment’s ecological condition

  3. Today’s Meeting Goal • Discussion between Project Team and OTB Stakeholders on: • Priority Issues • Project Objectives • Management Actions • Expected Responses to Management Actions • Project Challenges

  4. Old Tampa Bay Project Team H. Greening E. Sherwood L. Garcia K. Kaufman

  5. Old Tampa Bay Watershed Old Tampa Bay • Open Bay Surface Area (25%) vs. Watershed (75%) • Urbanized Land Uses (65%) Dominate Watershed Area • Total Freshwater Input- ~25% of Tampa Bay (2003-2007 Averages) • TN Loads ~16% of Tampa Bay (2003-2007 Averages)

  6. Old Tampa Bay Hydrologic Alterations 1966-67 Channel A 1969-70 Channel G 1990-93 Bayside Bridge • Alterations occurring as early as 1920s • Watershed greatly urbanized • Lake Tarpon / Brooker Creek watersheds now drain to Safety Harbor • Causeways may be impeding bay circulation / flushing

  7. Primary Bay Management Driver • ~½ Bay’s Seagrass Acreage Lost from 1950-1980 • Early 1990s – Tampa Bay Partners Adopt Baywide Seagrass Restoration Goal • Seagrass recovery in OTB segment slower than the rest of the bay

  8. Meeting Chl-a Thresholds? Focus on OTB Safety Harbor Sediment Muck 2009 Pyrodinium bahamense bloom • Old Tampa Bay still shows signs of poor recovery relative to other bay segments • A number of focused studies in OTB point to additional management & research needs • New challenges are being observed

  9. Old Tampa Bay Key Assessments

  10. Old Tampa Bay Priority Issues • Slower seagrass recovery in OTB segment compared to the rest of the bay • Periodic poor water quality (chlorophyll-a/ other light attenuation factors / D.O. in smaller embayments) • Circulation and localized muck accumulation problems (fine-grained sediment transport issues within segment?) • Pyrodinium blooms in 2008, 2009 and 2011

  11. Input on Priority Issues Consider spatial differences in wq between N & S OTB

  12. Old Tampa Bay Assessment:Preliminary Objectives (OTB Workgroup 2010) • Determine the effectiveness of targeted nutrient reduction initiatives (fertilizer ordinances, BMPs, coastal restoration) • Improve understanding of nutrient/hydrologic budget for OTB (particularly in ungaged drainages) to better pinpoint problem areas • Evaluate effects of remediating poor circulation in upper Old Tampa Bay through road modifications (Courtney Campbell Causeway / Bayside Bridge) • Evaluate effects of restoring freshwater flow regimes and habitats in coastal creeks and other restorable areas to better manage stormwater/nonpoint source inputs into the Old Tampa Bay system • Enhance monitoring capabilities to better understand the ecological conditions and responses in OTB

  13. 1. Evaluate effectiveness of nutrient reduction actions Willis 2011 • Tampa Bay Nitrogen Management Consortium Actions • Regional Fertilizer Management Ordinances • Pinellas Co., City of Tampa adopts TBEP Model Ordinance+ • Hillsborough Co. educational components • Other BMPs Implemented by Partners • Future reductions (WWTP to reuse, LID, etc.)

  14. 2. Improve understanding of nutrient dynamics • Groundwater input to OTB • Tampa Bay Loading Model • 7 Source Categories • Non-point source loads estimated from land use, soils, and rainfall in ungaged basins • TMDL Development • Tampa Bay TMDL • FDEP/EPA have developed additional nutrient loading targets in the watershed

  15. 3. Evaluate effects of remediating circulation 1966-67 Channel A 1969-70 Channel G 1990-93 Bayside Bridge • Causeways and bridges • Altering flow from Lake Tarpon, other channels • Determine effects on water quality, sediment accumulation, seagrass growth and condition

  16. 4. Evaluate effects of restoring flow Protect Seagrass Resources • Safety Harbor Sediment Assessment • Lake Tarpon Outfall Canal and surrounding urbanized stormwater nutrient inputs promoting in-bay eutrophication • Tidal Tributary Project • Reduce freshwater input “flashiness” from urbanizing watersheds • Restore more natural delivery of nutrients and flow to OTB Tidal tributaries Bay Proper

  17. 5. Enhance Monitoring Capabilities FWCC-FWRI 2009 Pyrodinium bahamense bloom • Seagrass Response to Potential Management Actions • Pyrodinium bahamense Spring/Summer bloom formation • Opportunistic phytoplankton • Florida blooms occur in estuarine locations with higher water retention times • Estuarine sediments may influence its recurrence in OTB • Ungaged/Urbanizing Basin Inputs • Enhance Identification of Nutrient Sources / Sinks

  18. Old Tampa Bay Assessment:Preliminary Objectives • Determine the effectiveness of targeted nutrient reduction initiatives (fertilizer ordinances, BMPs, coastal restoration) – • Perhaps lower priority due to lower fw and nutrient inputs into this bay segment (residence times and circulation needs to be considered in this, as well as established TMDL) • In-situ production vs. watershed inputs contribution to exceedences of regulatory thresholds • Influence of sediment flux and other bay segment inputs on chl-a exceedences • Changes to WWTP inputs to the system?-> effects on movement of discharge points? • Improve understanding of nutrient/hydrologic budget for OTB (particularly ungaged drainages) to better pinpoint problem areas • NE canal systems of OTB? -> Are these areas of significant nutrient loading • Atmospheric deposition (major nutrient input to watershed and bay surface)-

  19. Input on Preliminary Objectives • Evaluate effects of remediating poor circulation in upper Old Tampa Bay through road modifications (Courtney Campbell Causeway / Bayside Bridge) • Bridge abutment effects on sediment deposition within OTB • Evaluate effects of restoring freshwater flow regimes and habitats in coastal creeks and other restorable areas to better manage stormwater/nonpoint source inputs into the Old Tampa Bay system • Influence of tidal trib inputs after salinity barrier projects are implemented • Combination of scenarios needed to evaluate the system from multiple channelized inputs? • Enhance monitoring capabilities to better understand the ecological conditions and responses in OTB

  20. BREAK??

  21. Management Actions Asking for: • Input on Initial Management Actions Identified • Potential New Actions • Concerns with Identified or New Actions

  22. Initial Management Actions for Evaluation • Redirecting/modifying significant freshwater discharges to/within OTB (Lake Tarpon Outfall, Roosevelt Basin, Alligator Creek, Channels A and G) • Effects on residence time/flushing in OTB? Hydrologic load vs. nutrient load impacts? May have profound effects in localized areas within OTB. • LT ASR /other FW supply timelines? Long-term planning for future demand? • Unintended consequences—flood attenuation within watershed? Redirecting to where? • Timing of delivery/magnitude of FW inputs– Are these inputs truly driving circulation within the bay segment? • Consideration for large-scale climatic events [dry vs. wet years/pulsed flow events/prolonged climatic events (e.g. 3-4 years of drought/wet conditions)] • Considering operation/discharge management of structures (top vs. bottom discharge)

  23. Modifying operation of structures in Channels A and G to alter hydrologic inputs to Upper OTB • Adding culverts, bridge extensions to Courtney Campbell Causeway, Howard Franklin or Gandy Bridges

  24. Initial Management Actions for Evaluation • Redirect existing WWTP direct discharge to reuse or other beneficial uses in the watershed • Consider feasibility (including costs / permitting potential->but still reasonable / ROI->net environmental benefit) and unintended consequences of implementation • Implementing non-structural BMPs • Outreach activities within watershed

  25. Implementing other BMPs (e.g., large regional stormwater treatment areas) in the OTB watershed • Removal of muck (dredging) • Dredging to improve circulation?

  26. Locations 1966-67 Channel A 1969-70 Channel G 1990-93 Bayside Bridge

  27. Assessment of Estuarine Response Slower seagrass recovery in OTB segment compared to the rest of the bay Areal extent, species/bed composition (influence of attached alga), deep-edge extent, growth rates/productivity Ties into permitability of management action implementation Tying seagrass habitat response to higher trophic level response (e.g. fish population and assemblages) -- (monitoring a parameter vs. a response) Benthic algal contribution to ecosystem productivity Phytoplankton community composition and recent bloom dynamics  trends/changes in species Consideration of benthic/zooplankton/fisheries community structure/populations Ties into permatibility of management action implementation Are these practical to simulate with a model?

  28. Assessment of Estuarine Response • Periodic poor water quality (chlorophyll-a / other light attenuation factors / D.O. in smaller embayments) • Nutrient speciation and delivery (form and delivery of nutrient species to system) • Availability of new remote sensing products • Consideration of uncertainty of rate estimates that drive water quality modeling • Circulation and localized muck accumulation problems (fine-grained sediment transport issues within segment?) • Enhancing estimates of flow through bridge spans • Changes to the rate of muck accumulation in response to management action implementation • Consider spatial differences in wq between N & S OTB • Aesthetics/Ecosystem Services? Human use benefits/components? Would help create public buy-in

  29. Expected Estuarine Responses • Changes to the rate of muck accumulation in response to management action implementation • Changes to residence time within OTB where Pyrodinium blooms currently occur (cyst distributions) • Modeling water age within OTB (definition of residence time – an important consideration) • Changes to salinity, D.O., chl-a (and other light attenuation factors, e.g. CDOM, turbidity, etc.) • Changes to nutrient species concentrations within OTB • Dynamics/response of ephemeral seagrass beds (primarily Halodule beds) (e.g. consideration of seed bank/plant fragment source influx, integrating rhizome monitoring) • Linking model outputs to fisheries production will be difficult (but empirical approaches will be attempted to tie available habitat to fisheries production and composition)

  30. Management Action Considerations • Permitability • Costs

  31. Model Considerations • Physical model/construct is paramount (resolution of model will help determine whether model outputs are good/bad) • Deficiencies in SW-tidal exchange along bridge spans in OTB • Use of available datasets to address key ecological responses • Applicability of using existing/available model systems (EPA/TetraTech) as a starting point? • Future potential of model comparability • Model Simulation constraints • Model vs. empirical approaches • Feedback into model outputs (those parameters not possible to simulate) • Uncertainty estimates of response

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