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Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook. Roham Abtahi Nat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator OCWWS HSD. Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook. How is LRO produced?. RFCs Run Ensemble Streamflow Prediction ( ESP)

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Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

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  1. Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook Roham Abtahi Nat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator OCWWS HSD

  2. Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

  3. How is LRO produced? • RFCs • Run Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) • Run script which parses CS data by % of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stage • Transmits output to NIDS, who populates national level AHPS “Experimental Long Range River Flood Risk” tab • Issuance Timing • RFCs are requiredto transmit 3 month outlooks by the 28th of each month. • At 23z on the 28th, the national map switches to the next three month valid time • Can send updates as often as they like, but updates are not required

  4. WFO Hydro Program Manager Role • WFOs • Check your local HSA to make sure long range probs look reasonable • Look for inconsistencies between color of forecast point, and actual exceedance graph of that point • What do I do if I find an error? • Call RFC and let them know – most errors will be solved at this level • Contact your Regional HPM • Submit a TOC ticket (rare case) • toc.nwstg@noaa.gov • FYI • Raw national level compilation of RFC probability data • water.weather.gov/ahps/download.php

  5. Questions? Alaska Region: robin.radlein@noaa.gov Western Region: mike.schaffner@noaa.gov Central Region: wendy.pearson@noaa.gov Southern Region: tracy.clark@noaa.gov Eastern Region: laurie.Hogan@noaa.gov Pacific Region: No long range forecast points Me: roham.abtahi@noaa.gov 301-713-0006 ext 150

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