Seasonal Outlook Long Range Forecast

1. Seasonal OutlookLong Range Forecast Krissy ScottenNWS AMARILLO

2. Climate Data Outlets • National Weather Service Amarillo • http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ama • U.S. Drought Monitor • http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html • National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

7. Amarillo 2011 Climate Stats • Currently the warmest year on record (63.6° F) • Currently the driest year on record (4.84 inches - 14.01 inches below normal) • Record for most number of 100-degree days in a calendar year (50) • Record for most number of 90-degree days in a calendar year (107) • Record for most consecutive 90-degree days (50) • July was the warmest month ever on record (85.2° F) • Warmest July (85.2° F) and August (85.1° F) on record

8. Drought Information

9. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

10. El Niño, La Niña, and Everything In Between What exactly do they mean? How will it affect you?

12. The Facts • El Niño and La Niña episodes typically occur every 3-5 years. However, in the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years. • El Niño typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1-3 years. • They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity between December and April, and then weaken May-July.

13. EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA • Individual storms or events CANNOT be blamed on La Niña or El Niño! • Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the jet streams and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn affect the average intensity and track of storms.

14. Jet Stream Position

15. Effects on Texas • EL NIÑO • Cooler and wetter • Jet Stream farther south • Snowier than normal • LA NIÑA • Warmer and drier • Jet Stream farther north • Drought and fires common

16. Current ENSO Forecast • La Niña Advisory is in Effect! • La Niña conditions are expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the 2011-2012 winter. • El Niño conditions (cool and wet for Texas Panhandle) have less than a 2% chance of developing.

17. 1-Month Temperature Outlook

18. 1-Month Precipitation Outlook

19. 3-Month Temperature Outlook

20. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook

21. Snow in La Niña Years • 1950 - 0.1” • 1951 - 6.4” • 1955 - 2.3” • 1956 - 15.7” • 1963 - 8.9” • 1965 - 13.1” • 1968 - 13.6” • 1971 - 27” • 1972 - 17.3” • 1974 - 6.7” • 1975 - 18.9” • 1976 - 6.4” • 1985 - 10.7” • 1989 - 9.8” • 1996 - 15.5” • 1999 – 23” • 2000 - 33.9” • 2001 - 20.5” • 2008 - 7.1” • 2011 - 14.6” **Amarillo Normal: 17.9”** Average La Niña Years: 13.4”

22. Tornadoes in La Niña Years • 1955 - 6 • 1956 - 2 • 1963 - 5 • 1965 - 12 • 1968 - 22 • 1971 - 39 • 1972 - 19 • 1974 - 13 • 1975 - 16 • 1976 - 10 • 1985 - 3 • 1989 - 32 • 1996 - 35 • 1999 - 25 • 2000 - 9 • 2001 - 22 • 2008 - 12 • 2011 - 5 **Forecast Area Normal: 21** Average La Niña Years: 16.5

23. Climate Normals for Amarillo

24. Long Range Texas Forecast • Warmer and drier conditions continuing??? • Increased fire threat? • Continuation of significant drought conditions? YES!

25. Climate is what you expect.Weather is what you get. ANY QUESTIONS? Krissy Scotten (806) 335-1421 Kristin.Scotten@NOAA.GOV