Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

1. Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling 15 Btot (nT) 10 2 5 0 0 VBz -2 -4 PDR V report CDRs PRR 60 40 3-hr ap 20 CISM Model Development 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Validation CISM Model on SEC development computer Epoch (days) SEC identifies models with potential value SEC evaluates operational value Model in Operations Model in Testbed Feedback Broad Scientific Usage, CCMC Implementation Effort: CISM: 100% 70% 1% 0% SEC: 0% 30% 99% 100% Carrington Rotation 1896 Carrington Rotation 2000 Global Prediction Efficiencies (PE) for Daily Ap Probabilistic Geo-Effectiveness Observed climatology Probabilities of Warning Thresholds for given predicted ap 700 600 Vel (km/s) 500 400 300 40 Den (#/cc) 20 0 CISM Science to SEC OperationsModel Transition Process The GeospaceForecast Model The Solar Wind Forecast Model Product: Heliospheric Tomography • Global Ambient Solar Wind: • erupted magnetic flux distribution • outward pressure due to hot corona • extended heating for fast wind • rotational interactions • commencing in SEC development environment • in Spring 2007 • Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • constitutes most of the solar wind • recurrent activity • path for CMEs, SEPs and Cosmic Radiation • carries “killer” electrons • onset, duration, and magnitude of “high speed • stream” events • coupling with geospace models • Global Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere: • physics-based simulations of Earth’s space environment • with coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere model • commencing in SEC development environment • in Winter 2007/2008 • Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • specification of geomagnetic disturbance and • characterization of the electro-jet • electron content of ionosphere • description of the neutral atmosphere density and wind • identification of magnetopause location • predictions and alerts for utility companies, • telecommunications, and satellite operators Product: Solar Wind Parameters at L1 The Planetary Equivalent Amplitude Forecast Model Products: Daily, 3-Hr, 24-Hr Indices Verification of Daily Solar Wind Model • 1-7 Day Ap Time Series Prediction: • index constructed from North American ground- • based magnetometers (same as USAF) • persistent, trend, recurrent features of observed Ap • “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (from ACE) • based on McPherron (1990) linear filter scheme • continuously running in SEC development • environment since May 2004 • Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • “end-of-day” summary of geomagnetic activity • alerts for geomagnetic activity watch levels • automated way of obtaining a forecast • quick outlook of anticipated geomagnetic activity • driver for other empirical methods (Kp, MSIS90) • 3-24 Hour ap Time Series Prediction: • running index constructed as daily index but from • 3-hour averages • persistence of latest ap measurement combined • with “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (ACE) • continuously running in SEC development • environment since October 2006 • Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • short term outlook of effects due to quick changes • in solar wind conditions • better 1-day forecast for Ap • probabilistic forecast of Ap/ap warning level • crossings Legend to SW forecast product: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 8-hour predicted values coloredlines: watch/warninglevels Legend to Ap/ap forecast products: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 1-day predicted values grey stripe: 27-days of solar rotation coloredlines: watch/warninglevels Validation of Daily Ap Probabilistic Warning Levels