Competitive analysis in horizontal mergers 横 向合并中的竞争分析

1. Competitive analysis in horizontal mergers横向合并中的竞争分析 Elizabeth Xiao-Ru Wang, PhD王晓茹博士

2. Competitive harms of a merger合并的竞争危害 • Key question: is the merger likely to reduce competition and harm consumers?关键问题：合并会减少竞争而且损害消费者 • Potential manifestations of competitive harm post-merger潜在的合并后竞争损害的表现 • Higher price 更高的价格 • Lower quality products 低质量的产品 • Reduced services 降低服务 • Less innovation 减少创新

3. 7 key areas of competitive analysis竞争分析的7个组成部分 • Market definition 市场界定 • Market concentration 市场集中度 • Powerful buyers 有实力的买方 • Entry 准入 Unilateral effects 单边效应 Coordinated effects 协同效应 Efficiency 效率

4. Recent trends最新动态 • Less focus on market definition 减少对相关市场的依赖 • Greater emphasis on competitive effects 加强对竞争影响的分析 • Employ a range of tools instead of relying on a single type of analysis 运用了一系列的工具，而不是依赖于单一类型的分析

5. Market definition相关市场的界定 • Commonly used analysis:常用的分析： • Demand side substitution • 需求方替代 • Supply side substitution • 供应方替代 • Hypothetical monopoly test: a small but significant and non-transitory increase in price (SSNIP) • 假设垄断测试：一个小但重要的而非临时性价格上涨（SSNIP） • Critical loss analysis • 临界损失分析 • Product market 相关产品市场 • Geographic market 相关地域市场

6. Market concentration市场集中度 • Market share市场份额 • HHI赫氏指数 • The “change” is often more important than the “level”“增量”往往比“总量”更重要

7. Entry市场进入 • Timeliness 及时性 • Likelihood 可能性 • Sufficiency 充分性

8. Powerful buyers 强有力的买家 • Large buyers 大买家 • Small buyers 小买家 • Maverick 搅局者

9. Coordinated effects 协同效应 • Will the merger make it more likely for a group of firms to coordinate and raise prices? 合并是否会使一组厂商更便于协调提价？ • Key factors关键因素 • Concentrated Market: fewer competitors need to “agree” 集中的市场：需要较少的竞争对手来“同意” • Facilitating Factors: what market characteristics support anti-competitive coordination? 促进因素：哪些市场特征支持反竞争的协调？ • “Mavericks”: how does the merger change the incentive/ability to cooperate? “搅局者”：合并如何改变了竞争对手之间合作的动机和能力？

10. Unilateral effects 单边效应 • Will the merged firm have an incentive to raise price even if competitors do not necessarily accommodate that price increase by raising prices themselves?合并后公司是否有动力提高价格，即使竞争对手不一定会相应做出提价反应？ • Commonly used methods常用的方法 • Merger simulation 模拟合并 • Diversion ratio 分流比 • The Gross Upward Pricing Pressure Index (GUPPI) 总体涨价压力指数（GUPPI）

11. Efficiencies效率 • Real efficiencies are not cost savings of a transfer from one entity to another 真正的效率并非是节约的成本从一个实体转移到另一个实体 • Savings resulting from a reduction in output, service, quality, or product choice are not counted 由于产量，服务，质量，或产品选择的减少而导致的节省不应计算在内 • The more uncertain and more into the future efficiency claims are, the more they are discounted 效率愈不明朗，而且越遥远，更易被打折扣

12. Overview of China’s merger review中国并购审查概况 • Economic analysis generally consistent with mainstream antitrust approaches 商务部的反垄断经济分析和主流的方法基本一致 • Increasing transparency and growing sophistication in economic analysis 商务部的经济分析在透明度和复杂度上不断提高 • Unique challenges including considerations of non-competition issues 仍存在一些独特的挑战,例如非竞争因素的影响

13. Thank you谢谢 Elizabeth Xiao-Ru Wang, Ph.D. 王晓茹博士 ewang@crai.com 001-617-425-3596 Charles River Associates 200 Clarendon Street, T-33 Boston, MA 02116, USA www.crai.com/china