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Ensemble-4DWX update: focus on calibration and verification. Tom Hopson, Josh Hacker, Jason Knievel, Yubao Liu, Gregory Roux, Wanli Wu. Reminder of status in April 2009. Running WRF V3.0.1.1
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Ensemble-4DWX update: focus on calibration and verification Tom Hopson, Josh Hacker, Jason Knievel, Yubao Liu, Gregory Roux, Wanli Wu National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory
Reminder of status in April 2009 • Running WRF V3.0.1.1 • Had just finished running E-4DWX for ATC during Dec 2008 and Jan 2009, then returned configuration to DPG • Configured and ran E-4DWX for supporting UT Division of Air Quality • Improved MYJ and YSU PBL height diagnosis and PBL mixing • Added new graphics and improve post-processing flexibility (installation for GMOD and plotting historical case archive) and computing parallelisms • Fully automated calibration just being tested • Calibrated variables: 2-m T National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Progress since April 2009 (1 of 2) • Improved scripting to manage the computational resources • Increased stations from 26 to 34 (regional) • Calibration hindcast increased from roughly 600 to over 1000 points • Increased hindcast size allows calibration of 2 additional lead-times (36hr, 42hr) • Included new skill measure for ensemble skill-spread relationship • Corrected over-dispersion of calibration process • Calibrated variables: 2-m T, 2-m Td (new) National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Progress since April 2009 (2 of 2) • Examined results from CAD study at ATC (earlier talk) • Using performance of ensemble members to optimize DPG’s single-model configuration • Submitted proposal for brief paper in BAMS but was rejected. Have not decide whether to revise and resubmit • Continuing to work on scientific paper for MWR • Downtime of HPC (recent): May 13-20, Agami4 failure June 16-18, SGI node July 11-19, power outage caused Agami4 failure July 29 - August 4, Agami4 failure National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Calibration and verification • Ensemble calibration to correct predicted distribution • Calibration is needed for users capable of decision making with probabilistic guidance. Will be needed for foreseeable future • Verification of different ensemble characteristics is easily completed when performing calibration National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Calibration: review and recap Calibration (and verification) is now fully-automated Utilizes “persistence” if available 34 sites in and near DPG Full calibration for all sites ~ 1X per week for each weather variable Using lookup tables ~ every hour (8 hrs, was 1hr) “bias” obs Forecast PDF Probability Probability Forecast PDF obs “spread” or “dispersion” calibration Temperature [K] Temperature [K] National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
3-hr dewpoint time series Station DPG S01 Before Calibration After Calibration National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
42-hr dewpoint time series Station DPG S01 Before Calibration After Calibration National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
PDFs: raw vs. calibrated Blue is “raw” ensemble Black is calibrated ensemble Red is the observed value Notice: significant change in both “bias” and dispersion of final PDF (also notice PDF asymmetries) obs ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Troubled rank histograms Counts 0 10 20 30 Counts 0 10 20 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ensemble # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ensemble # ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
3-hr dewpoint rank histograms Station DPG S01 National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
42-hr dewpoint rank histograms Station DPG S01 National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
RMSE of ensemble members Station DPG S01 42hr Lead-time 3hr Lead-time National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Significant calibration regressors Station DPG S01 42hr Lead-time 3hr Lead-time National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009
Future plans • Refine lookup table process to decrease computation time (required as calibration data size continues to increase and new weather variables are added) • Implement for a) wind speed, b) wind direction, c) precipitation,d) surface pressure • Diagnose most informative model set to use operationally • Develop scheme for model points without surface observations over whole model domain National Security Applications Program Research Applications Laboratory ATEC-4DWX IPR, Aug 11-12 2009