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WCRP Strategic Planning: Interacting Better with/in the USA

WCRP Strategic Planning: Interacting Better with/in the USA. Dr V. Ramaswamy Vice Chair Joint Scientific Committee World Climate Research Programme. WCRP Enhances & Integrates.

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WCRP Strategic Planning: Interacting Better with/in the USA

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  1. WCRP Strategic Planning: Interacting Better with/in the USA Dr V. Ramaswamy Vice Chair Joint Scientific Committee World Climate Research Programme

  2. WCRP Enhances & Integrates • The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) is the premier, world-wide organisation established to improve the understanding of climate and its prediction “ …. the essential role of international programmes is to provide a framework whereby the contributions of nations can be focused towards shared goals.” The Climate Agenda, 1995

  3. International programmes add value to national research • Provide framework for priority setting through internationally agreed agenda • Provide framework for efficient/effective allocation of resources • Stimulate scientific networking • Develop common methodologies and experimental protocols • Organise model intercomparisons and data collection and standardisation • Synthesise and integrate individual research project results

  4. Deadline for inclusion in IPCC 4th Assessment report Benefit: Climate Change Info 18 global models* As of September 2006: > 27 Terabytes in > 68000 files > 750 registered users > 150 scientific publications • Fantastic resource! • Massive usage: • 177 pubs • 750 users • 27 T-bytes • No reduction • in ‘desire’ eg 21 model composite by Furrer et al., (2006) * Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Norway, Russia, UK, and USA

  5. Benefit: Climate Change Info ACC integration eg 21 model composite by Furrer et al., (2006)

  6. WCRP Value-add in Climate Research New scientific benefits from international coordination • Future climate archive & access: IPCC predictions • more than 1000 researchers world-wide using this! • over 200 published papers e.g. in Nature & Science • Human health eg malaria in Africa: Gerbier Mumm Award 2006 for ensemble climate predictions • Improved climate observations thru’ re-analysis • EOS report (Maryland) on ‘how’; Japan 2007 to ‘action’ • Global network: leverage strategy BUT effective networking is resource intensive (3 in 1980, 30 now)

  7. WCRP Value-add in Climate Research e.g. WMO/UNEP Ozone deepening 2006: accuracy vastly improved due to model quantum leap in SPARC’s chemistry climate model validation (CCMVal) WCRP (CMACC) & IGBP (AIMES) greenhouse scenarios for IPCC 5 Stakeholders need and want more now

  8. The WCRP JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling has led provision of the IPCC state-of-the-art multi-model ensemble of climate change projections with data archiving and access through PCMDI. • A key CLIVAR focus in analysing these runs is to determine how climate change may impact on modes of variability and associated regional changes • CLIVAR/IPCC/WCRP AR4 Workshop, Hawaii 2005 • The change in ENSO amplitude in the period 2050-2100 in the AR4 models • van Oldenborgh, G. J. et al, 2005, Ocean Science, 1, 81-95.

  9. VAMOS PLATIN - UNEP/GEF Supported Project for La Plata basin Benefits to US: Leveraged resources, development of S. American climate obs system, catalyzation of S. American climate research community

  10. CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean PanelPlan for an integrated, Multi-platform Indian Ocean Observing System Emphasis on ocean, but will provide surface met. data as well Argo floats 3°x 3° Drifters 5°x 5° ~20 real-time tide gauges for IOTWS Enhanced XBT lines to monitor Indonesian Throughflow, inflow to western boundary, Java upwelling and 10°S thermocline ridge Carbon/hydro cruise High density XBT Frequently repeated XBT Regional mooring arrays

  11. Chemistry & Climate change • Most anthropogenic forcing agents are controlled by chemical processes. • Understanding, quantifying, and accurately representing them in models is essential for assessing human influence on climate. • Many forcing agents are also pollutants!

  12. Report Preface Foreword Executive Summary – to be amended 1. The Cryosphere Theme 2. Applications of Cryospheric Data 3. Terrestrial Snow 4. Sea Ice 5. Lake and River Ice 6. Ice Sheets 7. Glaciers and Ice Caps 8. Surface Temperature and Albedo of Snow and Ice 9. Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground 10. Solid Precipitation 11. An Integrated and Coordinated Observing System 12. Implementation App. A. References App. B.Observational Capabilities and Requirements App. C. Satellite Missions in Support of the Cryosphere Theme App. D. Acronyms App. E. Contributors App. F. Web Sites for Further Information http://igos-cryosphere.org/

  13. WCRP Fit to 5 Goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goal 1: Extend knowledge of Earth‘s past & present climate & environment, including its natural variability, & improve understanding of the causes of observed variability & change e.g. Improve MJO understanding Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth‘s climate & related systems e.g. SPARC-IGAC; Focus on tropical convection Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth‘s climate & related systems may change in the future e.g. CMIP3 at LLNL All these are core to WCRP

  14. Cont.: WCRP Fit to 5 Goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity & adaptability of different natural & managed ecosystems & human systems to climate & related global changes Goal 5: Explore the uses & identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks & opportunities related to climate variability and change IGBP & COPES These are central to ESSP

  15. WCRP mapped onto CCSP Questions • CLIVAR: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4 (4.5), 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 7.2,… • GEWEX: 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 (5.4, 5.5), 4.1, 4.2, 4.4,… • CLiC: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, (4.5), 5.1, 5.2, (5.4), … • SPARC: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, … • All contribute greatly to CCSP Modeling and Observations Goals

  16. GEWEX IS STUDYING THE UNDERLYING MECHANISMS AND PROCESSES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE AND VARIABILITY OF THE WATER CYCLE AND ASSESSES IF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CYCLE ARE CHANGING AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH HUMAN ACTIVITIES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CHANGES? (CCSP-WC-Q1) GEWEX USES NEW SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SUCH AS THE NASA GRACE MISSION TO ASSESS THE VARIABILITY OF THE WATER CYCLE. WITH NOAA AND NASA SUPPORT, GEWEX HAS USED DATA FROM OPERATIONAL SATELLITES TO PRODUCE LONG TERM DATA SETS FOR CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION, RADIATION AND AEROSOLS. THESE DATA ARE VERY USEFUL IN CLIMATE STUDIES. 1700 today GEWEX IS UNDERTAKING STUDIES TO ASSESS LAND USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE

  17. GEWEX STUDIES HOW CLIMATE FEEDBACK PROCESSES CONTROL THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE AND OTHER PARTS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM (E.G. CARBON CYCLE, ENERGY), AND HOW ARE THESE FEEDBACKS CHANGING OVER TIME? (CCSP-WA-Q2) GEWEX CONSIDERS THE WATER AND ENERGY CYCLE AS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM THAT LIES AT THE HEART OF THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM. GEWEX MODELING STUDIES HAVE DOCUMENTED THE FEEDBACKS TO THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH LAND WETNESS AND CLOUDS. 40 km Siebesma has shown that LEM models and satellites show the same features for a small domain size (40 km) (KOSTER ET AL.)

  18. Responsiveness of WCRP Influence of national research agendas • Aerosols for climate and air quality/health/visibility • leading to (joint with IGBP) chemistry & climate initiative • Small Island & vulnerable coastal nations needs: • severe storms: CLIVAR predictability & GEWEX impact • sea level rise: Workshop on uncertainty beyond IPCC 4 Influence of national research agendas • Concerns over changed priorities in space-based obsvervations of the Earth’s climate

  19. WCRP-US Good News 2006 • Gaps in the US involvement with the WCRP exists in such areas as sea level, Earth system modeling, global water, drought, extreme events, and approach to applications • Integration across WCRP projects is largely a function of the pro-active efforts of the project participants and leaders • Programmatic coordination across WCRP problematic • concerns exist in the US as to whether the intended solution, COPES, will get to the root causes of this lack of coordination • questions regarding the implementation of COPES, especially its overlap and interactions with existing programs as well as the resources required to support COPES infrastructure. Sea-level, HAP, CMACC Success factors, JSC engagement agree Agree – resourcing & management now being addressed

  20. WCRP US-CCSP Interaction • There is a clear and compelling need for more effective and regular communication between the US agencies and the WCRP in both directions • Tight funding is altering engagement with the WCRP • degree of US agency involvement often depends on the level of interest of key agency program managers and sense of ownership; • a US focal point for GEWEX, SPARC, CliC remains primarily a resource issue, but may not require a formal project office designation WCRP resource & cash flow issues WCRP’s science still GREAT WCRP/IGBP Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) shows future climate change reduces efficiency of the Earth system to absorb anthropogenic carbon perturbation (Friedlingstein et al., 2006: J Climate, Vol 19).

  21. ACC integration WCRP’s 5 -10 yr Priorities Pressing high priority challenges and opportunities: • Global/international issues: tipping points & capacity • Abrupt climate change e.g. ice sheet melt; Gulf Stream • Comprehensive observations & analysis improvement • Ability to interpret predictions and more policy-relevant • Higher resolution models and more computing power/skill • Regional/national issues: application & confidence • Seasonal climate prediction skill for agriculture & health • Access to observing systems & analysis capability • Climate proofing development strategies • Higher resolutions: increased compute & bandwidth • Understanding climate science & using it effectively

  22. US CCSP Core • Desired research: • Atmospheric composition • Climate variability and change • Global water cycle • Land-use and land-cover change • Global carbon cycle • Ecosystems • Human contribution and response e.g., ESSP: GCP e.g. C4MIP (CMACC+AIMES) • WCRP at SBSTA24 and UNFCCC needs

  23. Indices of temperature “extremes” JJA warm nights DJF Cold nights Alexander, Zhang, et al, JGR 2006 • Anthropogenic influence detected in indices of cold nights, warm nights, and cold days Christidis, et al 2005

  24. Cont.: WCRP and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Adaptation has not been a direct focus of WCRP. However, through ESSP joint projects on food, water, health & carbon, WCRP science is beginning to contribute, e.g. Open Science Conf, Beijing, Nov 2006. • Building firmly on WCRP core activities, the WCRP promotes observational, research and modelling studies in support of such goals • already being done by the WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction and the WCRP Modelling Panel… • within the WCRP projects, increased level of interaction between information providers and decision-makers

  25. GEWEX IS ADDRESSINGKEY UNCERTAINTIES IN SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL PREDICTIONS (INCLUDING EXTREMES), AND IMPROVING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO REDUCE UNCERTAINTIES. (CSSP-WC-Q3) ACCURATE PREDICITON OF EXTREMES WITH SUFFICIENT LEAD TIME COULD RESULT IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN SAVINGS. GEWEX COMBINES MODELING STUDIES AND DATA ANALYSIS TO EXPLORE HOW LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS CAN BE DOWNSCALED TO REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES AND HOW DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE AFFECTED BY LOCAL EFFECTS (E.G.,FARM MANAGEMENT PRACTICES). Bonsal

  26. WCRP-US 2005: Good News • US climate research has benefited immensely from its association with the WCRP & stands to continue in this manner into the future. • The WCRP’s global perspective is one platform for US scientists to place their science in a larger framework and to take a very visible lead in developing, implementing and delivering components that are essential to further understanding of global climate and the Earth system. An example: sea-level rise

  27. THE GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT AND CCSP GEWEX ACTIVITIES SUPPORT CCSP GOALS IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS: - WATER CYCLE (PRIMARY) - CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (SECONDARY) - ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, LAND USE, CARBON CYCLE, OBSERVING AND MONITORING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, AND HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. IN THE WATER CYCLE CHAPTER GEWEX ADDRESSES QUESTIONS 5.1, 5.2 AND 5.3 DIRECTLY AND CONTRIBUTES TO QUESTIONS 5.4 AND 5.5. GEWEX ALSO ADDRESSES QUESTIONS 4.1, 4.2 AND 4.4 OF THE CCSP CHAPTER ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE.

  28. Abundance composition Radiative Forcing/ Health effects Processes Properties/ Processes Sources Precursors Chemistry Climate Chemistry, other factors (including policy) Understanding Climate: Understanding and quantifying Processes! • Modeling these processes in Climate and Earth System Models is crucial. •  Providing the ability to do it, with respect to chemistry, is the aim of AC&C [a SPARC-IGAC project].

  29. An Integrated and Coordinated System Related polar observing systems CliC, Arctic-HYCOS CLIVAR, CliC, SCAR, … IASC, AOSB, CliC, … Arctic-HYDRA CASO iAOOS

  30. WCRP’s 5 -10 yr Priorities{An example} CliC co-sponsoring protocols for intercomparing ice sheets models

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