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HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING IN OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY

HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING IN OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY. Geoff Love President of the WMO Commission for Basic Systems. OVERVIEW. A couple of definitions Where we have come from Where we are now Where we might be going in the short- and longer-terms. DEFINITIONS.

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HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING IN OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY

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  1. HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING IN OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY Geoff Love President of the WMO Commission for Basic Systems - 1 -

  2. OVERVIEW • A couple of definitions • Where we have come from • Where we are now • Where we might be going in the short- and longer-terms - 2 -

  3. DEFINITIONS • High Performance Computing: Computing performed on a system that, at the time of its commissioning, qualified as one of the top 500 (publicly benchmarked) systems in terms of ability to deliver sustained floating point operations. - 3 -

  4. DEFINITIONS • Operational Meteorology: “Operational” requires that production systems are supported in a robust way (code upgrades are easily facilitated, data management is streamlined, visualisation tools are available, etc.) - to be distinguished from, for example, the research environment. “Meteorology” includes both climate and weather - 4 -

  5. WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM ? YEAR MACHINE GFLOP • 1968 IBM 360 0.00065 • 1982 FACOM M200 0.006 • 1988 ETA 10P 0.12 • 1990 CRAY X-MP 0.23 • 1992 CRAY Y-MP2E 0.7 • 1993 CRAY Y-MP3E 1 • 1995 CRAY Y-MP4E 1.3 • 1997 NEC SX-4 32 • 1998 2xNEC SX-4 64 • 1999 NEC SX-5 104 • 2000 NEC SX-5 128 • 2001 2xNEC SX-5 256 A - 5 -

  6. WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM ? A - 6 -

  7. WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM ? A - 7 -

  8. WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM ? A - 8 -

  9. SYSTEM EVOLUTION 1968 Regional analysis, regional prediction 1984 Experimental hemispheric prediction, regional nesting 1986 Hemispheric prediction, regional prediction 1990 Global prediction 1994 Regional assimilation, global assimilation - 9 -

  10. WHERE ARE WE NOW ? • Global and regional 3-D variational scheme for data assimilation. • Global, regional and mesoscale atmospheric and ocean forecast systems. Ensemble production. • Air quality modelling, including a variety of chemistry options. • Dispersion, tropical cyclone and hydrologic modelling. • Climate simulation, regional downscaling - eg., catchment scale water balances. - 10 -

  11. Multi-operational system environment - 11 -

  12. Visualisation - 12 -

  13. WHAT IS NEEDED TO SUPPORT THIS EFFORT ? • Improving hardware, but of relatively stable design. • Robust hardware. • Software which can evolve to take best advantage of the hardware but is sufficiently stable so as to support older code, robust data management and modern visualisation (and the like). • Use of industry standards. • A mechanism to develop and maintain those standards likely to be peculiar to meteorology. - 13 -

  14. FUTURE TRENDS . - 14 -

  15. FUTURE TRENDS . - 15 -

  16. FUTURE TRENDS • Centres will specialise - no one will do it all. • There will be greater, and more successful efforts to integrate models from different disciplines. • Systems will be improved incrementally (modular architecture). • End-to-end modelling, including data quality monitoring, assimilation, analysis and prognosis, visualisation, archival, product generation and dissemination will occur. - 16 -

  17. FUTURE TRENDS • The ultimate goal is clearly earth-system simulation • The ultimate architecture would appear to be clusters of powerful computing and data storage environments (the level of interaction between modules, and time-critical nature of the various applications / modules will drive processor power-proximity relationship). • Data management in meteorology will accommodate explosive increases in data volumes, and be synergistic with other geophysical modelling efforts. - 17 -

  18. After:http//www.top500.org - 18 -

  19. After: http//www.top500.org - 19 -

  20. - 20 -

  21. - 21 -

  22. FUTURE TRENDS • There will always be a role for operational meteorology - and a need for operational high performance computing. • Operational meteorology will also be a component of a more integrated whole. • There will need to be significantly greater collaboration across the boundary between meteorology and the other geophysical and biological scientists performing earth-system simulation. This interaction will grow in time. - 22 -

  23. The operational meteorologists (short) wish list: • Keep the hardware improving according to Moore’s law; • Maintain a software environment that protects our existing investment in model code; • Provide the capability to manage and visualise the increasingly large datasets that models and remote sensing are providing. - 23 -

  24. THANK YOU - 24 -

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