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Weather Forecasting and Prediction

Weather Forecasting and Prediction. Methods of Forecasting. Step 1 - Outside! Step 2 - Satellite maps Step 3 - Radar imagery Step 4 - Surface and upper air maps Step 5 - Computer models Step 6 - Forecast experience/education. Step 1 – What’s Happening Outside.

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Weather Forecasting and Prediction

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  1. Weather Forecasting and Prediction

  2. Methods of Forecasting • Step 1 - Outside! • Step 2 - Satellite maps • Step 3 - Radar imagery • Step 4 - Surface and upper air maps • Step 5 - Computer models • Step 6 - Forecast experience/education

  3. Step 1 – What’s Happening Outside • Cloud Types (High, Middle, Low, Cloud Cover) • Sunshine • Temperature • Winds (Direction, Speed) • Dewpoint (How Sticky Is It) • Precipitation (Rain, Snow, Sleet) • Lightning and Thunder

  4. High Clouds • A Sign of Upper Level Moisture, Precipitation or Storms Possible within 24 Hours

  5. Middle Clouds • If Seen In Morning with Vertical Development, Possibility of PM T-storms

  6. Low Clouds • Usually Little Precipitation (Drizzle, Light Rain, Snow Shower)

  7. Cumulonimbus – Thunderstorms Approaching

  8. Local Observations • Metar Reports • KLNS 140053Z 02008KT 9SM -RA BKN015 OVC024 14/13 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB50 SLP104 P0000 T01440128 • First the station, then the date and time (Z = GMT), then the wind direction (first three digits) and speed (last two digits) and the abbreviation KT for knots. Then the visibility, in SM (statute miles), the present weather (if any), and the sky cover. The two numbers separated by a slash are the temperature and dew point, in Celsius. Then comes the altimeter setting, in hundredths of an inch of mercury, preceded by an A. Finally comes the remarks.

  9. Step 2 – Satellite Maps • We Have Satellites That Orbit Around the Earth and Take Photos of The Clouds • There are Several Types of Satellite Pictures • Visible (Shows Land, Water, Clouds) • Water Vapor (Shows Atmospheric Water Vapor) • Infrared (Bounces Radiation Off Clouds, Can See Fog and Snow Cover)

  10. Visible Satellite Image

  11. Water Vapor Satellite Image

  12. Infrared Satellite Image

  13. Radar Imagery • Nexrad (Next Generation Radar) • 150+ Doppler Radars • Detects Precipitation • Wind Direction and Velocity • Radar Dish Sends Out Pulse Which Bounces Off Clouds and Precipitation and Returns Back to the Dish

  14. Surface and Upper Air Maps • Shows Features (High Pressure, Low Pressure) • Wind Direction and Velocity • Heights of Pressure Levels • Temperatures

  15. Computer Models • Take Mathematical Formulas and Climatology Data and Predict What Will Be Going On In the Atmosphere • Predictions Out to 16 Days, However, Best Data Within 3-7 Days • NAM (North American Model) • GFS (Global Forecast System) • European, Canadian, + Many More

  16. Forecast Experience/Education • Know Geography and Climate of the Area You are Forecasting • Understand Forecast Model Trends • Remember the Weather Can Change at Any Moment without Warning • Understand the Processes That Occur In The Atmosphere

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