Going Green Does Not Save Green

1. Going Green Does Not Save Green Corn-based Ethanol and U.S. Energy Independence Team #072

2. The Problem • How much ethanol is needed to replace 10% of annual U.S. gasoline usage? • What effect will this fuel substitution have on carbon dioxide emissions? • Is corn-derived ethanol a cost-efficient way of producing fuel? • Estimate the effect of this policy on grain prices and developing nations over the next five years. • Are there better ways for the U.S. to attain national energy independence?

3. Ethanol for a 10% Mixture How much ethanol is needed to replace 10% of annual U.S. gasoline usage?

5. Purpose of Mixture • Gasoline consumption and emissions have been increasing for decades • Burning ethanol generates less air pollution than burning gasoline • A mixture of gasoline and ethanol thus burns cleaner than pure gasoline

6. Concerns for Mixing • Ethanol has a lower energy density than gasoline • Let Eg be the energy density of gasoline • Let Ee be the energy density of ethanol • Ratio Ee / Eg is approximately 0.66 • Greater volume of ethanol is required to to store equal energy • Total fuel volume increases when mixed

7. Volume of Ethanol Required • Let V be current fuel volume • Let V’ be fuel volume of mixture • Let f be fraction of ethanol in mixture • fV’ is volume of ethanol • (1 – f)V’ is volume of gasoline

8. Volume of Ethanol Required (2) • Amount of energy must remain constant • Solve for new fuel volume • Substitute E = Ee / Eg and solve for V’e

10. Emissions of Corn-Based Ethanol What effect will this fuel substitution have on carbon dioxide emissions?

11. Comparison of Emissions The increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases is substantial CO and CO2 emissions are higher than the chart implies CO2 is not the only harmful greenhouse gas Per vehicle mile traveled (VMT)

12. Cost Efficiency of Corn-Based Ethanol Is corn-derived ethanol a cost-efficient way of producing fuel?

13. Cost Efficiency Of Ethanol

14. Model of 10% Ethanol Mixture Use Estimate the effect of this policy on grain prices and developing nations over the next five years.

15. Assumptions • No major changes in the following trends: • American gas consumption • Relationship between corn price and ethanol demand • Constant future farming efficiency • Low 2005 corn price is abnormal

16. Model Design

17. Model Design

18. Model Design

19. Model Design

20. Model Design Projected gasoline consumption Ethanol needed Volume of corn needed Resulting value of corn Constant yield Acreage needed Harvest price per bushel

21. The Model

22. Model Results/Analysis

23. Model Results/Analysis

24. Model Results/Analysis

25. Alternatives for U.S. Energy Independence Are there better ways for the U.S. to attain national energy independence?

26. Alternative Methods to attain Energy Independence • Alaskan Petroleum Reserves • 5.9-13.2 Billion barrels of recoverable oil on federal lands • Able to replace imported oil from Middle East for 3-6 years • Nuclear Energy • Currently 104 nuclear reactors • No harmful greenhouse gases • Storage for nuclear waste is not a concern

28. Alternative Methods to attain Energy Independence (2) • Hydroelectric • Use moving water to power generators • Accounts for 19% of world energy • Solar Power • Sun releases an immense amount of energy • Most practical for electricity generation

29. Alternative Methods to attain Energy Independence (3) • Geothermal • Energy stored beneath Earth’s surface • Clean, Safe and Sustainable • Other Biofuels • Crops such as sugar cane, sugar beet and algae give us alternative biofuels to use for energy

30. Going Green Does Not Save Green