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Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands

Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands. DR. CHAD BRIGGS Strategy Director, GlobalInt LLC Research Associate, King’s College London 06 February 2013. Work to Date. AU Minerva program 2010-2012 (lineage to DOE and public health)

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Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands

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  1. Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands DR. CHAD BRIGGS Strategy Director, GlobalInt LLC Research Associate, King’s College London 06 February 2013

  2. Work to Date • AU Minerva program 2010-2012 (lineage to DOE and public health) • New tools & methodologies for energy and environmental security risk scenarios • Focused regional assessments for Asia-Pacific • What aren’t we looking at that might hurt us? Photo sources: USAF & AP

  3. Why are we surprised? • We look in wrong places and watch the most obvious things. • We still think the world is flat. • Bad things happen to other people.

  4. Example of vulnerability in ‘ advanced’ country Problems of ‘most probable’ risk designs: Fukushima = 5.7m wave Tsunami = 15-30m+ Insularity and underestimation of risk (TEPCO) Ignored warnings Critical nodes exposed Japanese tsunami 2011

  5. Tipping Points and Scenarios Tipping points and the law of complex failures Most disasters are not the result of one ‘driver’ Improbable combinations of probable factors E.g. Hurricane Sandy, Fukushima, Three Mile Island Focus on single drivers underestimates risk “Things that have never happened before happen all the time.” –Carl Sagan

  6. Linking key issues

  7. Sector collapse tsunamis

  8. Disasters versus Humanitarianism Humanitarian assistance ≠ Disaster response (HA/DR) Disaster response is the first 90 days After this, HA turned over to other organizations Difficulty in knowing where/when to hand over ‘ Phase 0’ planning ‘Horizon scanning’ for risks Determining capabilities and potential response MPAT at PACOM Since 1996 coordinating on HA/DR response Tempest Express and Cobra Gold exercises Let other countries lead Include NGOs (UN-OCHA and ICRC)

  9. Epidemiology and scalability Methodological caution Scalability ‘Open’ systems Common, salient metric Ground-up studies 14 September 2014 11 C. Briggs Source: University of West England

  10. Net Assessment Net assessment refers to a combination of: Capabilities analysis Response assessment Vulnerability assessment Just how extreme can environmental systems become? What vulnerabilities are at risk? What resources are available to respond? What are system resiliencies? Dept Energy planning session, Dec 2008 (file photo) 14 September 2014

  11. Hawaiian example • Scenario of hurricane, tsunami, acidification mix • Energy imports • Hickam/Kaneohe • Coral & freshwater • Impacts on DOD ops • DR via Wheeler Field • Weeks to restore normal flight ops • Impacts on Pearl Harbor Barber’s Point, Source: C Briggs

  12. Contact: CHAD@GLOBALINT.ORG www.globalint.org @globalint2040

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