Kelvin Hirsch NRCan, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB Dan Ohlson

1. Vulnerability Assessment / Risk Management Approach to Climate Change Adaptation in the Forest Sector Kelvin Hirsch NRCan, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB Dan Ohlson Compass Resource Management Ltd., Vancouver BC

2. Presentation Outline • Climate Change Facts • Adapting to Climate change • Scenario approach • Vulnerability approach • Risk and its Management • Definitions • Concepts and background • Workshop Framework • Questions

3. Climate Change Facts • Climate variability and climate change are realities • Anticipated changes in climate are expected to be greatest and fastest at northern latitudes and in the continental interiors • Forest ecosystems are climatically sensitive/dependent • Considerable uncertainty exists regarding climate change and its impacts on forests, forest industries, and forest-based communities

4. Adapting to Climate Change

5. What is Adaptation? Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustments in ecological, social, and economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effect or impacts. It refers to changes in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change (Smit and Pilifosova 2001).

6. Climate Science specify Climate Change Scenarios for selected system/location estimate Geophysical Effects Shortcomings • High degree of uncertainty about future impacts (compounding assumptions/estimates) • Focuses on averages (rather than extremes) • Scale (currently not practical for forest managers) • Looking at the “distant” future not the present • Driven by researchers (constantly seeking greater accuracy) • Adaptations are autonomous estimate Biological Impacts estimate Economic Impacts estimate Social Impacts assume Adaptations Scenario Approach

7. Adaptive Capacity Exposure of the System Vulnerability Vulnerability Approach Vulnerability - the degree to which a system is susceptible to injury, damage, or harm (from climatic factors).

8. for selected system/location Identify/document Current Vulnerabilities to Climate assess Current Management of Climate Risks Climate Science estimate Changes in Risk with Climate Change assess Adaptive Capacity for Future Risks identify Modifications to Risk Management Vulnerability Approach

9. Vulnerability Approach Features/Benefits: • Engages practitioners/stakeholders/public immediately (makes climate attributes relevant at local/regional level) • Uses climate science/knowledge/modelling to understand most critical variables; focuses on key trends • Emphasizes anticipatory/proactive adaptation • Identifies ways to increase adaptive capacity resulting in improved efficiency, productivity, resilience, and stability • Ultimately is a form of risk management and can therefore draw upon a well-established field of study and practice

10. Risk and its Management

11. Defining Risk So what do we mean by Risk Management anyway?

12. Defining Risk Common usage of the term “Risk”, even by experts, is inconsistent and imprecise (five examples): • Risk as uncertainty: What is the “risk” in your estimate? • Risk as hazard: What are the “risks” to timber supply? • Risk as probability: What is the “risk” of a fire? • Risk as consequences: What are the health “risks” from smoke? • Risk as trade-offs: Is that company a good investment “risk”?

13. Defining Risk • Poor definition leads to lack of clarity and provides little management direction…….. “The overall risk in our assessments varies. On a province-wide basis, the risk is low, but for specific vulnerable wildlife, the risk could be high. The risk of potential high magnitude impact is coupled with scientific uncertainties that prevent precise forecasting of the situations that will be highly risky.”

14. Defining Risk So lets rely on the standards: • Canadian Standards Association (1997) • “The chance of loss defined as a measure of the probability and severity of an adverse effect” • International Standards Organization (2002) • “The combination of the probability of an event and its consequence”

15. More Definitions • Risk = The combination of the probability of an event and its consequence • Risk Assessment = The systematic use of information to define risk • Risk Management = The entire process of assessing risks (i.e., vulnerabilities), developing and evaluating strategies, making decisions under uncertainty, implementing actions and communicating effectively with decision makers and stakeholders.

16. Risk Management Probability Probability High High * * * Proactive Intervention Mitigation Monitoring * * * Low High Low High Consequence Consequence * * Emergency Plans Do Nothing * * * Low Low From Risk Assessment to Risk Management Risk Assessment

17. Links to Climate Change Adaptation There is a growing recognition of the need to adopt risk management approaches to vulnerability assessment and adaptation: • “Given the tremendous uncertainties, it is not surprising that adaptation strategies frequently are described as forms of risk management” (Smit & Pilifosova, 2002) • “Climate change adaptation strategies can be viewed as a risk management component of sustainable forest management plans” (Spittlehouse and Stewart, 2003)

18. Links to Climate Change Adaptation (Source: UKCIP, 2003)

19. Risk Management Risk Management is the entire process of: • Identifying what matters (i.e., assessment endpoints) • Assessing risks (i.e., vulnerabilities) • Developing and evaluating actions and strategies • Making decisions under uncertainty • Implementation and monitoring (i.e., adaptive management) • Communicating effectively with stakeholders and policy makers

20. The Good News! • Risk assessment and risk management methods already exist, we don’t need to re-invent them to address climate change problems! • Examples: • CCME: Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment • USEPA: Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment • UKCIP: Guidelines for Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making

21. A Warning……. • Risk assessment and risk management is NOT(exclusively) a scientific endeavor: • Risk itself cannot be objectively defined or measured – it is not parallel to “temperature” • Risk assessment and management is a function of: • Scientific facts • Human values • The trade-offs associated within a specific planning or decision context

22. OPTION 1 Suppression policy across entire park OPTION 2 Some zones identified for natural wildfire For Example: Consider the problem of managing fire disturbance in a protected area with high ecological value and significant recreation infrastructure. • Is this a risk management problem? • Which option is better?

23. Risk Management = YES! Some probability and consequence issues to think about: • Option 1 will reduce the probability of wildfire effects on recreation in the short term (good), but will have negative ecological effects in the long term (bad). • Option 2 will cost less on average due to reduced suppression (good), but will introduce a small probability of catastrophic outcome, e.g., escape fire into a timber supply area (bad).

24. Which Option is Better = ???? That depends, on: • your perspective, i.e., conservationist vs. timber supply manager • your tolerance for accepting low probability, high consequence outcomes • your confidence in the risk assessment (data, models, etc.) • more…………..

25. A Good Risk Management Process • What you should expect to see… • Unambiguous problem scope and definition • Clear and concise set of objectives • Discrete, internally consistent management alternatives • Explicit expression of uncertainty and its impact on decisions • Trade-offs exposed • Appropriate use of expert judgment (we never will have all the data and information we want) • Clear statement of stakeholder preferences

26. Assess Vulnerabilities (Current and Future) Iteration as Required Develop Risk Management Strategies Formal Adaptive Management Cycle Evaluate and Decide Implement and Monitor Our Workshop Framework Analyze Situation Set Management Objectives