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Demos Europa The EU 2020 20% renewables target

Demos Europa The EU 2020 20% renewables target. Dieter Helm Professor of Energy Policy University of Oxford November 19th 2008. The questions. what is the question to which renewables are supposed to be the answer? how do renewables address the projected increase in emissions?

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Demos Europa The EU 2020 20% renewables target

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  1. Demos EuropaThe EU 2020 20% renewables target Dieter HelmProfessor of Energy Policy University of Oxford November 19th 2008

  2. The questions • what is the question to which renewables are supposed to be the answer? • how do renewables address the projected increase in emissions? • what is special about renewables? • is the 20% target appropriate? • can it be achieved? If so, how? • what will be the consequences?

  3. What is the question to which renewables are supposed to be the answer? • global warming is global • CO2  50% by 2030 • China  1,000GW coal by 2030 • coal 25%  28%  35% share of total global energy and… • world population 6 billion  9 billion by 2050(1+ billion in China, 1+ billion in India)  emissions trend is upwards  no solution to CO2 without solution to coal

  4. How do renewables address the projected increase in emissions? • renewables are mainly intermittent until storage is available • back-up tends to be fossil-fuel-based • scale limited against timetable • renewables will not keep pace with increases in coal-burn emissions  not much impact on global warming

  5. What is special about renewables? • not the only low-carbon source • nothing unique about the economics • significant environmental costs • major network consequences • depend on government/customers’ subsidies • not the cheapest way of reducing emissions But… • politically attractive

  6. Is the 20% target appropriate? • 2020: 20–20 is a political slogan • no CBA justifies precisely 20% • not least-cost way of CO2  • no 20% target for nuclear, CCS or other technologies • energy efficiency  renewables

  7. Can it be achieved? • yes, if enough of the national income is devoted to it + significant state direction • no, on existing policies and… • timescale is 11 years only

  8. If so, how? • plan grid and distribution networks centrally asap • roll out smart meters asap • direct renewables investments asap • give open-ended financial commitments on behalf of customers asap and… • treat renewables as regulated asset bases (RABs) in utilities

  9. What will be the consequences? • high costs • low probability of achievement • limited impact on emissions and… • renewed dash-for-gas to balance systems and… • eventually either batteries to transform renewables economics or other technologies

  10. For information • Climate-change Policy—why has so little been achieved, 2008 Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24:2, 211–238 • The EU Climate Change Package—even more radical than it looks, 2008 • Caps and Floors for the EU ETS: a practical carbon price, October 13th 2008 • Special administration, financing functions and utility regulation, October 23rd 2008 • Meeting the Infrastructure Challenge, May 2008 • Sins of Emission, Wall Street Journal, March 13th 2008 For more information, visit http://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/publications

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