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The Most Profitable Oil Company in the World. Or is it????. Who is ExxonMobil?. World’s largest publicly traded petroleum and natural gas company Industry leader in almost all aspects of energy and petrochemical business Involved in exploration, production, and transportation of its products:
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Who is ExxonMobil? • World’s largest publicly traded petroleum and natural gas company • Industry leader in almost all aspects of energy and petrochemical business • Involved in exploration, production, and transportation of its products: • Crude Oil • Natural Gas • Petroleum • Operate on six continents under the brand names Exxon, Esso and Mobil
What does ExxonMobil do? • Upstream • Exploration and Production • Holdings in 36 countries • Downstream • Manufacturing, transportation and distribution • 38 refineries in 21 countries • In 2007, refinery throughput averaged 5.6 million barrels per day, and petroleum product sales were 7.1 million barrels per day
What does ExxonMobil do? • Chemical • Petrochemicals • More than 90 % of chemical capacity is employed in businesses where we ExxonMobil ranks first or second in worldwide market position. • Technology • Innovation • $3.5 billion spent over last 5 years on research • Focus on maximizing performance in remote areas/difficult operating environments
Current Factors affecting the ExxonMobil and the Oil Industry • Volatility • Market uncertainty • Rising costs • Skill shortages
Current Factors affecting ExxonMobil and the Oil Industry: • Volatility • Market uncertainty • Rising costs • Skill shortages
Current Factors affecting ExxonMobil and the Oil Industry: • Biofuels • Energy allocation • Environmental issues • Global Energy Demand
Current factors affecting ExxonMobil: Offshore drilling
Current factors affecting ExxonMobil: Outrage associated with record profits
Current factors affecting ExxonMobil: Windfall Profit Tax
Current factors affecting ExxonMobil: Hugo Chavez I am going halt crude oil shipments to ExxonMobil refineries!
Current factors affecting ExxonMobil: Exxon Valdez Case
2007 Financial Performance • Sales: $390.3 billion • 94.28% increase from 2002 • Gross Margin: 42.8% (Industry: 46.2%) • 55.5% in 2002 • Operating Margin: 17.42% (Industry: 5.1%) • 8.71% in 2002 • Net Profit: $40.6 billion • 254% increase since 2002
FYE 2007 Financial Ratios • Dividend Yield: 1.60% • Industry Avg. of 1.60% • Price / Earnings: 12.73 • Industry Avg. of 13.5 • ROE: 33.35% • Industry Avg. of 28.7% • Beta*: .95
Net Profit *From the 2007 ExxonMobil Annual Report
Shareholder Return *From the 2007 ExxonMobil Annual Report
Future Financial Health • Analysts expect the company to grow at a steady rate of 11% over the next five years • Hoovers, Goldman-Sachs, Merrill Lynch • The earnings are expected to grow at 8% • This will put the earnings per share over $9 a share in 2010
Growth rate of earnings Assumptions: Growth rate of 8% Lower growth rate than in the past due to uncertanties in the market Production is down compared to past – there is some cash flow uncertainty since recent cash flows have been bolstered by commodities trading
Analysis • This is a respectable growth • However, not the immense growth that the company has recently had • Future forces such as shareholder’s concern with the environment, political turmoil, and oil commodity pricing will effect Exxon • This combined with forecast of the company will support investing at ‘weight’
Forecast • Relaxed prices • Decreased Domestic Demand (20%) • Increased Global Demand (80%) • Energy Information Association
Washington • Windfall Profit Tax-Highly Unlikely • Conservative vs. Liberal • Off shore Drilling?
Hold At Weight • Buy Vanguard VDE • Production Life Cycle • Cracking Spread • Market Weighted
Exxon vs. Market • Diversified • Service Sector • Segmented
Stock Re-Purchase • Stakeholder Theory • Board of Directors • Myopic Management? • Best Option? • EPS Management