Higher Expectations and Fewer Resources: What’s a SHEEO to Do?

1. Higher Expectations and Fewer Resources:What’s a SHEEO to Do? Dennis P. Jones SHEEO Annual Meeting Santa Fe, NM July 17, 2009

2. The Expectation “By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world” President Barack Obama, February 24, 2009

3. Associate and Bachelors Degrees Needed to Become the Most Educated Country by 2020 Additional Annual Degree Production Needed – 150,528 per Year Current Annual Degree Production – 2,252,212 Increase in State and Local Funding at Current Cost per FTE Note: Assumes private institutions will maintain current share

4. 140,533 94,162 131,749 Massachusetts North Dakota Rhode Island New York Nebraska Colorado Iowa Utah The “Gap” - Difference in Annual Degrees Currently Produced and Annual Degrees Needed to Meet Benchmark Accounting for Migration U.S. = 781,301 (a 52.8% increase in the public sector) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS and Population Projections, IPEDS Completions Survey 2004-05

5. The fiscal realities

6. Expenditures on Tertiary Educational Institutions as a Percentage of GDP, by Source of Fund (2004) *Some levels of education are included with others **Including public subsidies to households attributable for educational institutions, as well as including direct expenditure on educational institutions from international sources. ***Net of public subsidies attributable for educational institutions. Source: OECD.

7. Expenditures Annual % Budget Increase, Fiscal 1979 to Fiscal 2009 *32-year historical average rate of growth is 5.9 percent **Fiscal 09 numbers are estimated ***Fiscal 10 numbers are recommended Source: NASBO June 2009 Fiscal Survey of States

8. Combined Budget Gaps of $230B 37 states 24 states *Only 24 states have forecasted FY 2011 budget gaps to date

9. For most states – and for most public institutions – the stimulus package is not an answer. • But it could slow the impact • And it could buy enough time to adjust to substantially changed circumstances

10. After stimulus wanes, gaps could approximate 4% of spending, or $70 billion, even under the “Low-Gap” Scenario Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009

11. After stimulus wanes, gaps could approach 7% of spending or $120 billion under the “High-Gap” scenario Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009

12. Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009

13. 1.7 DE 1.6 1.5 1.4 CT NJ 1.3 MA AK 1.2 WY State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita) MD NY VA NH 1.1 MN CO IL NV WA CA RI 1.0 US PA NE WI NC GA KS HI MO SD IA OH FL IN VT TX OR 0.9 TN AZ ND ME MI UT SC KY 0.8 ID NM LA AL OK WV MT AR 0.7 MS 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate) Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) State Tax Capacity and Effort—Indexed to U.S. Average

14. The Demographic realities

15. The big population growth will be in students of color. In the main these will be individuals of modest means. Therefore there are real limits as to how high tuition can go before price affects participation and completion.

16. Change in Population Age 25-44 By Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025 …2,689,700 …1,044,516 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

17. Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

18. Family Incomes of Families with School Age Children Source: American Community Survey

19. Expectations • Maintain access – serve an increasing number of students • Maintain affordability to both students and the state • Invest stimulus funds in: • Developing more cost-effective ways of doing business • Paying for the transition

20. Short-Term Actions • Reallocate faculty time to undergraduate courses and away from • Administrative and committee work and other activities for which release time is granted • Undersubscribed graduate programs that cannot be justified by regional labor market needs • Non-sponsored research • Collaborate with other institutions – share • Academic programs • Administrative services • Make sure that students are receiving all aid for which they’re eligible

21. Longer Term Strategies – Mission Focus Refocus on the institutional mission – serving state and student needs rather than institutional aspirations • Eliminate small, non-core programs – close low-demand, high-cost programs that aren’t distinguished and can’t be justified by labor market needs • Re-think institutional aid – focus on removing barriers to attendance rather than competing for students whose college participation is not in question

22. Longer Term Strategies Make investments in more efficient administration and plant operations • Retrofit building for energy efficiency • Reengineer business processes • Renegotiate relationships with the state (invest in a Policy Audit with an eye toward restructuring state administrative and reporting requirements)

23. Longer Term Strategies Invest in reengineering curricula and delivery methods • Restructure general education • Fewer options • More large enrollment courses • More courses that can be taught by faculty from multiple disciplines • Invest in course redesign • Tackle developmental education on a statewide basis • Common standards • Modularized • Technology enhanced