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Regional Housing Market Perspective

Regional Housing Market Perspective. HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers Group Stephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 ssmiley@hanleywood.com. WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?. Information : Nation’s leading provider of residential real estate information

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Regional Housing Market Perspective

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  1. Regional Housing Market Perspective HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers Group Stephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 ssmiley@hanleywood.com

  2. WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE? • Information: Nation’s leading provider of residential real estate information • Covering 30 major metropolitan areas nationwide • Addressing active subdivisions and the entitlement pipeline • Consulting: Customized analysis for residential and master planned communities • 848 studies in 22 states in 2004 • Pricing strategies, absorption studies, product analysis and strategic planning

  3. EXPANSION MOTIVATIONS • Increase Revenue • Expand Scale to Enhance Valuation • Geographic Diversification to Lower Risk • Product Expansion and Land Inventories • “The Closer In Markets Are Taken”

  4. San Joaquin Map

  5. Stanislaus Map

  6. Merced Map

  7. Fresno Map

  8. NEW HOME AFFORDABILITY RATIO Major California Markets 1st Quarter 2005 Statistics Orange County 3.8% San Diego 6.4% LA/Ventura 14.3% Inland Empire 15.3% Bay Area 14.5% Sacramento 16.7% Central California 16.9% Note: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data. Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  9. DETACHED MEDIAN PRICECentral Valley $408k (+44%)221% increase from 1st Qtr 1995 Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  10. NEW DET. HOME TRENDS IN PRICE & VALUE/SF Central Valley Median Price=$407,859 (+44%) Price/SF=$182 (+5.2%) • Merced = $181k (+10.3%) • San Joaquin= $200k (+7%) • Stanislaus = $171k (+5.6%) Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  11. AVERAGE DETACHED NEW HOME PRICESCommuter Corridor/Hwy 5 & 99January 2005 • Tri-Valley Dublin $1,084, 975 Livermore $1,207,301 San Ramon $916,837 • Central California Tracy $581,622 Patterson $490,159 Lathrop $461,191 Los Banos $401,046 Manteca $394,134 Stockton $388,076 Modesto $354,209 Fresno $309,518 Merced $288,604

  12. SAN JOAQUIN MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKET Central Valley San Joaquin Captures 47% of Sales San Joaquin 53.1% in 1997 Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

  13. NEW HOME EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REPORT 1st QUARTER 2005 Median Detached Base Total Sales (Detached & Attached) Counties Source: New Home Executive Summary Report, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

  14. Current Median Price and New Home Sales over Past Four Quarters • San Joaquin $464,990 4,804 sales • Stanislaus $407,656 3,997 sales • Merced $336,190 2,164 sales • Fresno region $307,500 5,625 sales • Kern County $295,750 2,320 sales

  15. DET. SALES: MAJORITY NOW OVER $350KCentral Valley YTD Net Sales 2004 4% Over $500K 7% Over $450K 13% Over $400K 18% Over $350K 25% Over $300K 17% Over $250K 8% Over $200K 2% Over $150K.001% Over $100K .001% under $100K Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  16. INVENTORY REMAINS LOWCentral Valley 1Q05 Stdg. Inv. 101Q05 Speculative Inv. 13Mo. Spec. Inv. 0.0 Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  17. Central ValleyFuture Supply • County Active Mapped Total • San Joaquin 3,357 19,242 22,599 • Stanislaus 3,808 7,583 11,391 • Merced 2,993 8,435 11,428 • Projected Supply (Based on 2004 Sales) • San Joaquin 4.17 years (5,414 sales/yr) • Stanislaus 2.81 years (4,084 sales/yr) • Merced 5.43 years (2,103 sales/yr)

  18. RESALES HIT NEW RECORD IN 2004Central CA 2004 - 56,026 Sales Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  19. 2004 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  20. 1Q05 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  21. 2004 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSA Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  22. 1Q05 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSA Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  23. News and Notes from Central Valley: • In the entire Central California region, builders had detached net sales of 18,508 homes through 2004, representing an increase of 3.5% over 2003. • The detached average prices in Central California rose 32% from 2003 to $369,845. The highest increases were found in Central Valley were new homes commanded an average price of $409,488. By comparison, the Kern County submarket base prices increased to $298,452, followed by the Fresno market which increased to $305,661. • Central Valley with 163 projects had 93% of its sales occurring in homes priced at over $300,000.

  24. GOING FORWARD • Look for additional product in Mountain House, Lathrop, etc. Growth control in Tracy, etc. • Merced/Madera will continue to expand. • Lot prices continue to increase has more builders look towards the area to expand. • The Bay Area will always impact the market, however, local valley move-up buyers now a major market. Due to increased equity and low interest rates. • Price points increasing. Tracy/Lathrop towards the high $500,000’s, other areas into the mid $400,000’s. • Look for more slow growth measures to come to a vote over the next few years • Markets expanding south of Fresno, communities such as Selma, Sanger, Reedley, etc • Bay Area/Sacramento builders need to keep pipeline filled.

  25. WHERE CAN WE FIND CHEAP LAND?

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