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Howard Cattle

Report of WGCM (Met Office, Exeter, 3-5 Oct 2005) and WGCM/WMP (Met Office, Exeter, 5 Oct 2005 (pm)) meetings. Howard Cattle. Key WGCM agenda issues. Review of interactions with WCRP developments (JSC, COPES, WMP etc, CLIVAR, CliC, GEWEX) Progress with regional modelling

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Howard Cattle

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  1. Report of WGCM (Met Office, Exeter, 3-5 Oct 2005) and WGCM/WMP(Met Office, Exeter, 5 Oct 2005 (pm))meetings Howard Cattle

  2. Key WGCM agenda issues • Review of interactions with WCRP developments (JSC, COPES, WMP etc, CLIVAR, CliC, GEWEX) • Progress with regional modelling • IPCC/CMIP activities and key PCMDI role

  3. The IPCC AR4 motivated the formulation of the largest international global coupled climate model experiment and multi-model analysis effort ever attempted. It is being coordinated by the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel (started in October, 2003) (Panel members: Meehl, Covey, Latif, McAvaney, Mitchell, Stouffer) Fourteen modeling groups from around the world are participating with 21 models; considerable resources have been devoted to this project; PCMDI has archived >27 TeraBytes of model data so far

  4. Results from analyses of the multi-model dataset were presented by 125 scientists at a workshop convened by US CLIVAR and hosted by IPRC (Univ. of Hawaii) March 1-4, 2005, and are feeding directly into the AR4 assessment process

  5. Over 200 papers have been submitted to peer-reviewed journals with results from multi-model analyses for assessment in the IPCC AR4 This is more than triple our most optimistic estimate for participation To date, there are over 400 analysis projects registered at PCMDI; more are being added every week This is the largest, most comprehensive, highest profile and, arguably, most successful project ever organized by WGCM

  6. Key WGCM agenda issues (2) • Scenarios for IPCC AR5 and WGCM influence • Reports from modelling groups • Data management issues (Promote approach used for AR4, including CF conventions for metadata.) • The next CMIP activity (20th century forcing experiments for detection/attribution, anthropogenic vs. natural?, proposed by David Karoly) • Other WGCM activities (CFMIP, forcing scenarios, model initialisation (short review of current options), climate change detection, paleo modelling (PMIP)) • Links to Earth System Modelling (Carbon cycle, ESSP/Global Carbon Project, C4MIP, biosphere modelling) • Interactions with THORPEX

  7. Joint session with WMP (WCRP Modelling Panel) • Long discussion on concept of “seamless prediction” (a key element of COPES) • Reviews of modelling activities from WGNE; GEWEXModelling Panel; CLIVAR WGCM,WGSIP,WGOMD; CliC, COPES TFSP • Monsoon Modelling activities • WCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel (WOAP) • AMIP

  8. WGCM/WMP meeting - WGOMD • Presentation covered P-OMIP and WGOMD -Workshop “Evaluating the ocean component of IPCC-class models”, leading to concept of CORES. • Outline of CORES (including mean, interannually varying and freshwater perturbation experiments) • Joint WGOMD/CLIVAR Atlantic workshop on Atlantic Thermohaline variability • Question for WGOMD - how compatible are the WGOMD freshwater perturbation experiments to the CMIP water hosing experiments? • Discussion of model resolutions required for climate experiments

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