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The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month). World. USA. Germany. Source: Thomson/ Datastream , Haver , DECPG.

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The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJuly 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month) World USA Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.

  3. Cross border bank flows to developing countries continue meagrebillions USD, 3-month moving average Syndicated lending Bonds Source: Loanware and Bondware.

  4. Industrial countries

  5. Employment losses ease… with potential positive effects on spending retail volume growth (y/y) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] Change in employment [R] Retail sales [L] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor.

  6. U.S. economic activity is stabilzing…but bank loan charge-offs surgingISM composite economic activity index [left]; Bank charge-offs (% total C&I loans) [right] ISM composite index [left] C&I charge-offs [right] Source: Institute for Supply Management; Federal Reserve Board.

  7. U.S. trade developments may offer boost for 2nd quarter GDP export and import volumes, ch% saar Export volumes Import volumes Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  8. Japan’s trade and production take a sharp leg up over May/Juneexport volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Export volume Production Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.

  9. Labor markets deteriorate quicklywhile spending continues to falter unemployment rate (%) [left]; retail sales, ch% yr-on-yr [right] Retail sales [right] Unemployment rate % [left] Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

  10. Japan’s inflation drops well into negative territory Toyko CPI and corporate goods prices, ch%, y/y Headline CPI Corporate goods prices (PPI) Source: Bank of Japan.

  11. European labor markets continue to weaken, but sentiment up on lower CPI unemployment rate (%) [left]; EC consumer sentiment [right] Unemployment rate % [left] Euro Area consumer sentiment [right] Source: EUROSTAT and European Commission.

  12. Euro Area CPI in negative ground HICP headline and core, ch% y/y and EURIBOR (%) EURIBOR Headline HICP HICP-core Source: Eurostat.

  13. Industrial production

  14. Deep peak-to-trough declines in industrial production are now being reversed Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  15. China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month) World USA Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.

  16. Global manufacturing looking up Source: JPMorgan-Chase

  17. International trade

  18. World export growth appears to be bottomingexports, ch% seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar) Source: World Bank data.

  19. Global imbalances ease moderately as U.S. deficit and China surplus narrowgoods trade balance, U.S. $-bn, seasonally adjusted, annualized China United States Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

  20. Eurozone exports begin to support more moderate declines in productionIP and exports, ch% seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar) Industrial Production Exports Source: Eurostat.

  21. Oil prices

  22. Oil prices and OECD oil stocks million bbl $/bbl Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  23. World Oil Production (mb/d) Non-OPEC Non-OPEC x FSU OPEC Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* for select dates in 2009 $/bbl Jun 11 Jul 13 Feb 18 Source: NYMEX.

  25. Non-oil commodity prices

  26. Food prices edged higher in June (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  27. Metals prices ease following large gains in first-half 2009 Copper Nickel Aluminium Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Freight rates fall on slowdown in bulk trade Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. International Finance

  30. Flows slowed in June; first-half volumes halved from a year earlier Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  31. Cross border bank flows remain well below the levels seen in previous yearsbillions USD, 3-month moving average Syndicated lending Bonds Source: Loanware and Bondware.

  32. EM assets rebound from recent correctionsMSCI equity index, USD [left]; EM bonds spreads, bps [right] EMBIG spreads [right] MSCI equity index [left] Source: Morgan-Stanley and JPMorgan-Chase.

  33. Currencies

  34. Dollar weakens vs yen… trading range around $1.40 against euro USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] yen/USD USD/Euro (inverse) Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  35. Dollar slips vs EM currencies in seconed quarterpercentage change (USD per LCU) (%) Stronger Local Currency First quarter 2009 Second quarter 2009 Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. FOCUSDevelopments in real effective exchange rates

  37. Real effective exchange rates depreciate in most of the world’s largest economiesJanuary 2008 = 100 Japan China Euro Area USA Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.

  38. Real effective appreciation for commodity exporters’ as commodity prices stage a comebackJanuary 2008 = 100 Brazil Australia Canada South Africa Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.

  39. REERs bounce off lows of early 2009 in countries exporting capital goods and autos BIS effective exchange rate, broad Indices ,January 2008 = 100 Hungary Czech Republic South Korea Source: Bank for International Settlements.

  40. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJuly 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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