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Did we expect a disturbed stratosphere in 2009-10?

Did we expect a disturbed stratosphere in 2009-10?. QBO. QBO- east. 90N 30hPa Temperature. QBO-EAST ? (Holton & Tan 1980) EL NINO ? (Ineson and Scaife, 2009; Bell et al 2009) SOLAR MINIMUM ? (Labitzke & Van Loon 1988; Kodera and Kuroda 2002)

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Did we expect a disturbed stratosphere in 2009-10?

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  1. Did we expect a disturbed stratosphere in 2009-10? QBO QBO- east 90N 30hPa Temperature QBO-EAST ? (Holton & Tan 1980) EL NINO ? (Ineson and Scaife, 2009; Bell et al 2009) SOLAR MINIMUM ? (Labitzke & Van Loon 1988; Kodera and Kuroda 2002) TREND ? (Chartlon et al 2008; Bell et al 2010) ... all fit with a weaker-than-average polar vortex

  2. North Pole temperature at 10hPa ZMZW at 60N 10hPa Minor Major Key features of stratospheric flow: Minor warming – early December Strong vortex until mid-January – major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) Weak, disturbed vortex late winter – persistent easterlies over polar cap Courtesy Andrew Charlton-Perez http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/research/stratclim/current/

  3. ZMZW 60-90N Pressure ERA-40 operational analysis Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 Mar-01 NAM index Pressure Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 Mar-01 NAO Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 Mar-01

  4. - 01-02-2010 - displacement SSW event - 08-12-2009 - lower stratospheric split Strong mid-winter (Dec – Jan) Courtesy Andrew Charlton-Perez

  5. ZMZW 60-90N Pressure ERA-40 operational analysis Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 Mar-01 NAM index Pressure Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 Mar-01 NAO Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 Mar-01

  6. Tropospheric precursors? EP-flux vector (10hPa, 60N) 16 NOV 16 DEC 16 JAN 16 FEB 16 MAR 16 APR NOV 500hPa Z’ EQ Vertical EP-flux (100hPa) 90N •growth in vertical EP-flux is pre-blocking •Was it driven by PNA-type pattern? •Wave-2 confined to lower stratosphere • January blocking precedes SSW •Also strong PNA-like pattern, no NAO •Low EP flux (10hPa) in late winter due to persistence of easterly anomalies in lower stratosphere 16 NOV 16 DEC 16 JAN 16 FEB 16 MAR 16 APR

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