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Political Stability in East Asian Nations: Trends and Challenges

Explore the complexities of political stability in East Asian countries, analyzing factors like race, class, religion, and regime strength. Assess recent developments and key indicators from the Asian Barometer Survey to understand perceptions of democracy, corruption, and governance. Examine individual country cases such as China, Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore to gauge stability levels and potential issues. Conclude with insights on stability levels and the need for nuanced analyses beyond surface observations.

arnoldvincent
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Political Stability in East Asian Nations: Trends and Challenges

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  1. Are East Asian countries politically stable? TAN Ern Ser

  2. Framework • What constitutes East Asia? N-E Asia, S-E Asia. • Complexity, heterogeneous: race, class, religion, region, ideology. • Interests, visions, strategies (violence, secession, autonomy, reform) • State and government/regime: strong/weak, consensus & legitimacy • Civil society: strong/weak • External factors: recession, security, health.

  3. What is political stability? Peaceful, harmonious Differences and conflict Regime change Breakdown of key institutions Demise of nation

  4. Recent developments • China: Tibet, Taiwan, natural disasters, Islamists. • Taiwan: pro-China or pro-independence. • South Korea: relationship with US and with North Korea. • Philippines: Arroyo government, Southern Philippines. • Indonesia: religious conflict. • Malaysia: post-March general election. • Thailand: Southern Thailand, urban-rural conflict. • Singapore: financial crisis.

  5. Indicators from the recent Asian Barometer Survey 2006-7

  6. Perceived current and future economic condition (1=bad, 5=good)

  7. Perceived current political condition(5=bad, 1=good)

  8. Trust in Institutions (1=lo, 4=hi)

  9. Perception of Democracy as practiced

  10. Satisfaction with the way democracy works (1=lo, 4=hi)

  11. Evaluation of extent of democracy: free and fair election? (1=free & fair, 4=not so)

  12. Evaluation of extent of democracy: accountability (1=lo, 4=hi)

  13. Evaluation of extent of democracy in Singapore: freedom of speech (1=hi, 4=lo)

  14. Evaluation of extent of democracy: freedom of association (1=hi, 4=lo)

  15. Evaluation of extent of democracy: responsiveness of government (1=hi, 4=lo)

  16. Perceived extent of corruption in government (1=hi degree of corruption, 5=lo)

  17. Perceived equality of treatment by the government (1=agree , 4=disagree)

  18. Attitudinal items

  19. Open quarrels among politicians are harmful to society (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  20. People should always support the government, (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  21. Relationship between government and people should be like that between parents and children (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  22. Conflict among political groups is NOT a bad thing (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  23. Leave complicated political issues to the future (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  24. Prefer little-by-little political reform (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  25. Conclusion • Thailand: unstable, Malaysia: intermediate, Singapore: stable. • Limitations: Broad stroke and macro-level. Need to look at social divisions. Need to use multivariate model. • Some hypotheses: • Democracy does not lead to stability. • Preference for avoidance of conflict does not necessarily lead to stability. • Good governance lead to stability.

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