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Sam Fraiberger Data Scientist @ World Bank Visiting Researcher @ NYU, Northeastern, Harvard

Sam Fraiberger Data Scientist @ World Bank Visiting Researcher @ NYU, Northeastern, Harvard www.samuelfraiberger.com @ spfraib sfraiberger@worldbank.org. World Bank’s Mission: Alleviate Poverty Shared Prosperity. Big Data Team : Work Across the Organization Micro - surveys

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Sam Fraiberger Data Scientist @ World Bank Visiting Researcher @ NYU, Northeastern, Harvard

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  1. Sam Fraiberger • Data Scientist @ World Bank • Visiting Researcher @ NYU, • Northeastern, Harvard • www.samuelfraiberger.com • @spfraib • sfraiberger@worldbank.org

  2. World Bank’s Mission: • Alleviate Poverty • Shared Prosperity • Big Data Team: • Work Across the Organization • Micro-surveys • “Data Collaboratives” • Grant Opportunities: • DT4D • Deadline March 1st • <150K • Collaborations:

  3. Call Detailed Record: • Lozano-Gracia (World Bank) + Flowminder • Home/Work Locations, Connectivity Challenges (Haiti) • Satellite Imagery: • Kilic(World Bank) + Lobel, Burke (Stanford) • More accurate/timely/afforable crop Yield Predictions (Uganda) • News Analytics: • Fraiberger (World Bank) + Subramanian, Balashankar (NYU) • 20M ArticlesOver the Past 30 Years • Predict Development Indicators (Macro, Famine, Food, Disease) • “Data Fusion” (Twitter, Google Search, etc.): • Fraiberger (World Bank) + Lazer, Grinberg (NEU/Harvard) • Twitter: Decahose, 60M Users in 20 Developing Countries • Google Health API • Combining big data souces

  4. Investment Economy Trade Market Infrastructures Agriculture Budget Deficit Foreign Aid India China Turkey Argentina Thailand Colombia Indonesia Brazil Malaysia

  5. Agreement Benefit Confidence Recovery Improvement Relief Optimism Gain Hope Decline Worries Fear Concern Threat Protest Crisis Gloom Burden

  6. Available in Real Time • Leading Indicator of Growth

  7. Forecasts Are Often Wrong • Tetlock: • 28K political predictions • 284 experts • Average forecasters • no better than random • Loungani: • Survey of 63 industrial • and developing economies • Out of 60 recession, how • many were correctly predicted? • 2  • How do you know that economists have a sense of humor? • Because they put a decimal on their forecasts.

  8. 15% Reduction in Forecast Error

  9. How Can We Do Better? • Large p/Small N Problem e.g. Google Searches, Tweets) • Find “Robust” Predictors with Little Ground Truth Data • Causally linked to a behavior of interest • Stable over time • Next Step: Facebook Ads

  10. Available in Real Time • Leading Indicator of Unemployment

  11. Available in Real Time • Leading Indicator of Unemployment

  12. Sam Fraiberger • www.samuelfraiberger.com • @spfraib • sfraiberger@worldbank.org

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