Michael J. Carroll Latham & Watkins LLP April 12, 2013

1. Los Angeles County Bar Association27th Annual Environmental LawSuper SymposiumLos Angeles, California Michael J. CarrollLatham & Watkins LLPApril 12, 2013

2. Relevant Standards • Ozone: • 0.080 ppm by 2023 • 0.075 ppm by 2032 • 0.070 – 0.060 ppm by ? • GHG: 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 • PM2.5: 98th percentile greater than 35 ug/m3 by 2014

3. Reductions Required to Meet Standards • Ozone Strategy Focused on NOx Emissions • NOx Reduced 80% from 2010 Levels by 2023 • NOx Reduced 90% from 2010 Levels by 2032 • GHG Reduced 85% from 2010 levels by 2050

4. Additional Reductions Necessary to Meet Ozone Standards Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

5. Targeted Sources • Passenger Transportation • Light- and Medium-Duty Vehicles • Aircraft • Passenger Locomotives • Freight Movement • Heavy-Duty Trucks • Freight Locomotives • Cargo Handling Equipment • Commercial Harbor Craft • Commercial Ocean-Going Vessels • Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment • Construction Vehicles • Industrial Equipment Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

6. Role of Population Growth • California population expected to grow from 35 million to 60 million by 2050 • While rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will slow, overall growth in VMT will continue • Truck VMT expected to grow 2.5% per year • Commercial shipping expected to grow at 5.5% per year

7. Role of Growth in Goods Movement San Pedro Bay Ports Forecasts (TEUs) forecast forecast Source: Southern California Association of Governments, October 17, 2012

8. Scenario Under Which Standards Might Be Achieved • By 2040, all passenger vehicles sold in California are zero-emissions vehicles. • By 2050, for trucks, the average fuel economy doubles and NOx emission standards are 80 percent below the current cleanest standards. • Nearly all future locomotives operating statewide are zero-emission or near-zero emission such as hybrid-electric. • Future jet engines are 75 percent cleaner in terms of NOx emissions and all burn renewable jet fuel. • By 2050, 40 percent of new commercial ships are fueled by liquefied natural gas (LNG) or are natural gas-conventional fueled hybrids. • By 2050, all liquid fuels are derived from renewable feedstocks. • The electric grid capacity grows to meet new demands, yet is substantially cleaner with heavy reliance on either renewables or carbon capture and storage (CCS). Source: Southern California Association of Governments, October 17, 2012

9. Required Changes to Fuel Supply Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

10. Required Changes to Fuel Supply Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

11. Required Changes to Electricity Supply Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

13. Would it work? Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012