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Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Relating changes in extremes to impacts over the Mediterranean: developments since the AGM and application to D6.8. Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Helsinki, April, 2007. Summary. Not much time spent on WP6.2

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Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

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  1. Relating changes in extremes to impacts over the Mediterranean: developments since the AGM and application to D6.8 Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Helsinki, April, 2007

  2. Summary • Not much time spent on WP6.2 • Two months on another project • Work on other ENSEMBLES WPs • RT8 • Public participation in science Web site • Stakeholders • RT4 • Ambient climatology behind Mediterranean extremes • WP6.2 • Web site • Review of models

  3. DeSurvey • Data may be of use in WP6.2 • ERA-40 on 1 degree grid over Mediterranean • Standard variables • 6-hourly • 1958-2002 • Downscaling to 1 km resolution • Weighted by topography • Most of Spain and mainland Greece done • Based on above ERA-40 data

  4. RT 8: Public web site (1) • Two sections • ENSEMBLES • Climate change • Need contributions • Particularly on climate change part • url: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~tomh/ensemblespublic

  5. RT 8: Public web site (2)

  6. RT 8: Public web site (3)

  7. RT 6.2 Web site

  8. Setting the scene: labour • Agricultural labour as % of total labour 1961-2004

  9. Setting the scene: irrigation • % of crop land under irrigation 1961-2003

  10. Meat production (tonnes) 1961-2005 Setting the scene: meat production

  11. Food exports as % of total exports 1962-2002 Setting the scene: exports

  12. Chickens (1961-2005)

  13. Chickens: climate vulnerabilities • Temperature • >25 deg C: loss of appetite, lower egg production • >30 deg C: illness • Water • Up to 0.3 litres/day • 3-4 times that on hot days

  14. HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>25 deg C 1961-1980 2001-2020 2041-2060 2081-2100

  15. HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>30 deg C 1961-1980 2001-2020 2041-2060 2081-2100

  16. Sheep (1961-2005)

  17. Sheep: climate vulnerabilities • Temperature • >30 deg C: decline in milk yield and fat content even with low humidity • >32 deg C: reproduction declines, rams can become impotent for 2-3 months • Water • 3.6 litres/day in winter, 14 litres/day in summer • more on very hot days

  18. HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>32 deg C 1961-1980 2001-2020 2041-2060 2081-2100

  19. Tourism receipts (billion $, 1990-2001)

  20. Tourism • Problems making links with climate data • Too many other variables? • Numbers of tourists might be more appropriate statistic than income from tourists • Lack of good data available free • Europe is trying but is not there yet

  21. Agricultural models • The following climate vulnerability models have been developed and can be done for all Europe (where relevant!) • Wheat • Potatoes • Chickens • Sheep • Cattle • Citrus • Olives • Grapes

  22. D6.8 (1) Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage • Requires models on: • Human health • Flooding • Drought • Wind storm • Forest damage • Agriculture (not clearly specified in the DoW)

  23. D6.8 (2) UEA has models on: • Human health • heat stress • Atmospheric pollution • Drought • What impacts? • Agriculture • + a small contribution to wind storm and flooding • return period modeling and probabilities of extremes • Other partners are also contributing to human health and agriculture.

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