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The Employment Challenge

The Employment Challenge. North Carolina Chapter – Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations. May 3, 2012. Let’s s tart at the very beginning… Triangle Regional Modal (TRM). TRM is key transportation analysis tool, for example: MPOs: V/C and LRTP alternatives

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The Employment Challenge

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  1. The Employment Challenge North Carolina Chapter – Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations May 3, 2012

  2. Let’s start at the very beginning…Triangle Regional Modal (TRM) • TRM is key transportation analysis tool, for example: • MPOs: V/C and LRTP alternatives • NCDOT: feasibility and environmental studies • Triangle Transit: passenger rail ridership • Turnpike Commission: bonding • Air Quality Conformity So… TRM is very important!

  3. Triangle Regional Modal (TRM)Role of SE Data Input Output Performance Measures Transportation Network V/C (Travel Behavior) TRM Households Transit Ridership Employment Etc. Ten counties.

  4. SE Data -- Population • Census (if new decade, i.e., 2010) • Census blocks are nested inside of TRM Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) • Population, households, household size easy to get • Average income is a challenge • Inspections data (if intervening years, i.e., 2005) • Base growth from last Census on certificates of occupancy (COs) for new dwelling units Thank God for Census and Inspections!

  5. SE Data -- Employment • Needed: • Control data (totals by county, or city, or town) • Distribute to TAZ level (top down), or • Check employment distribution (bottom up) • Employment location

  6. Employment – Control Totals Which estimate to use? Many variables: Government Farm Military Self employed Residence v Place of work Snapshot v Total for year Etc…

  7. Employment – Control Totals Employment Security Commission (ESC) • The Good • Quarterly report by all employers subject to employment insurance • Snapshot (it is not total of different employees in that quarter) • Full- and part-time workers • Place of work • The Bad • HQ or regional office payroll might show employees outside of area • Under reports by about 8% So make a little adjustment…. Total ESC Employment x (100/92) = Adjusted ESC

  8. Employment – Control Totals Adjusted Employment Security Commission (ESC) How well does it work?

  9. Employment – Location (TAZ) Sad Story Gonna tell ya’ a story… Back in about 2004… Concept was… ESC InfoUSA Assumption was… InfoUSA had ~ 2/3 to ¾ of employment records Employment Security Commission had ~ 2/3 to ¾ of employment records

  10. Employment – Location (TAZ) Sad Story (cont.) Reality was… InfoUSA ESC Many problems • DBA v legal name • Subsets of large establishments done differently • GeoCoding errors • Most establishments are small, so there were tens of thousands of duplicates. • Etc.

  11. Employment – Location (TAZ) Happy Story Employment Geocoder application Add Modify Delete InfoUSA (2/3 to 3/4 of employers) Employment by TAZ

  12. Employment GeoCoder -- Query

  13. Employment GeoCoder -- Query

  14. Employment GeoCoder – Detailed Data • Check theBig Three geolocation; no. of employees; and employment category.

  15. Employment GeoCoder – By TAZ

  16. Employment GeoCoder – Process What do we do? • Train local planners on using GeoCoder: Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, etc. • Give access to GeoCoder via Web • Provide strategies for doing the job

  17. Whoa! There are thousands and thousands and… There are too many employers!

  18. Employment GeoCoder – Keep Your Focus The medium-to-high concentrations of employees are most critical for the TRM to function properly. Thus… Focus on large employers and employment centers Sparse numbers of small employers are a low priority. Don’t let perfection kill your progress!

  19. Employment GeoCoder – Resources • Make sure to cover: • Large retail centers and strip malls • Office parks and centers • Commercial centers • Compare with other resources: • Chamber of Commerce list. • Economic Development office list. • Tax database. • Parcel database (land use codes). • Employment Security Commission (ESC). • School district. • Business license. • Google street view. • Photo marquis and facades

  20. Employment GeoCoder -- Conclusion Costs… Lots of work Lots of collaboration Benefits… Reliable data More confidence Good base for forecasts

  21. MPOs and TRM Area Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro MPO Capital Area MPO

  22. Employment – Location Top Down Bottom Up Durham County

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