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Migration, Post-2015 Development Goals, And the KNOMAD Dilip Ratha World Bank New York January 24, 2013

Migration, Post-2015 Development Goals, And the KNOMAD Dilip Ratha World Bank New York January 24, 2013. Outline. Migration and development Migration and development goals KNOMAD. South-South migration is larger than migration from developing countries to OECD countries .

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Migration, Post-2015 Development Goals, And the KNOMAD Dilip Ratha World Bank New York January 24, 2013

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  1. Migration, Post-2015 Development Goals, And the KNOMAD DilipRathaWorld Bank New York January 24, 2013

  2. Outline • Migration and development • Migration and development goals • KNOMAD

  3. South-South migration is larger than migration from developing countries to OECD countries Destination of migrants from the South There were more than 215 million migrants worldwide in 2010. Note: South = Developing countries Source: Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011

  4. Migration affects development

  5. Remittances to developing countries estimated to reach $406 bn in 2012 Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank

  6. Top remittance recipients in 2012 as % of GDP, 2011 $ million, 2012e

  7. Remittances have reduced poverty in Nepal Source: World Bank, DFID, ADB Study 2006, Glinskaya and others 2006

  8. Remittances helped reduce poverty in Sri Lanka % of Sri Lankan households that moved up to a higher income decile after receiving remittances, 1999-2000* Income Decile Source: De and Ratha (2012)

  9. Remittances tend to rise following crisis, natural disaster, or conflictRemittances as % of private consumption Note: Crisis refers to Asian financial crisis in 1997-98

  10. Significant share of remittances spent on human capital and physical capital investments varies by level of development Percent of remittances from outside Africa * Uganda excludes unspecified use of remittances (2/5th of total remittances) Source: Africa migration project household surveys; GLSS 2005-06

  11. Migration associated with higher educational attainment

  12. Migration associated with access to banking

  13. Remittances improve country creditworthinessExternal debt as share of exports and remittances

  14. Downside of Remittances and Migration • Large remittance flows may lead to currency appreciation • Remittances may create dependency • Remittance channels may be misused for money laundering and financing of terror • Social impact on family left behind • Competition in job markets • Impact on culture and identity in destination communities

  15. Migration pressures will grow in future because of demographic changes, and income gaps Source: Koettl (2010); Shaping the Future : A Long-Term Perspective of People and Job Mobility for the Middle East and North Africa (World Bank 2008)

  16. High-skilled migration is larger in poor countries which already suffer from low skill levels But migration can augment skill levels in developing countries through brain gain, skill and technology transfers, and return migration

  17. Cost of remittances can be reduced Average cost of sending $200 to developing regions Post offices and mobile phone companies can play a major role in expanding access to the poorest, but need to avoid exclusive partnerships (both in source and destination countries) *EAP excludes Pacific Islands Source: World Bank Remittances Prices Worldwide database (January 2011)

  18. The wealth of the diaspora can be mobilized through diaspora bonds Also remittances can be used as collateral to raise bond financing for development projects Source: Ratha and Mohapatra 2011.

  19. Development also affects migration

  20. Interactions between migration and development are complex, and multi-dimensional

  21. Policy implications • The international remittances agenda • Know your migrants/diaspora • Help potential migrants acquire globally marketable skills • Point-based systems can produce adverse effects on developing countries – Labor markets • But ethical recruitment policies may be ineffective, and unethical • Improve transparency in recruitment of migrants • Border control policies should be revisited • Migration is not a substitute for job creation at home

  22. New Idea:Diaspora bonds for funding medical training • 50 diasporastudents, attrition rate 10 1st yr, 5 afterward • Tuition $30K per year, for 4 years; • 25 local students trained free • Revenue per year: $4.65 mn • Cost of training: $2.32 mn • Cash flow: $2.33 mn • At 5% coupon this could support debt of $46 mninto perpetuity • Source: Ketkar and Ratha (2011)

  23. New Idea:Leveraging remittances for the global fight against malaria

  24. Migration must feature in post 2015 development goals • Migration affects development; and development affects migration. • Migrants, like those in the informal sector, should be included in MDG discussions • And development goals should not always be country-specific

  25. Migration must feature in post 2015 development goals • Channels: Remittances, Skills, Investments • Targets: Cost of remittances; Cost of migration; Amount of financing • Principles: “Treat your immigrant the way you want your migrants to be treated every where”; “Every one should have basic human rights, at home and abroad”

  26. Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)

  27. Rationale for KNOMAD Vast knowledge not always accessible to policy makers Knowledge spread out over many disciplines There are information and knowledge gaps in many key areas of migration and development

  28. KNOMAD Open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnership To generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review A global public good that is also a learning process

  29. Structure Twelve thematic working groups supported by a small secretariat Advisory committee Contractual as well as voluntary contributions Multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank

  30. Data • Lower-skilled labor migration • Migration and security • Internal migration • High-skilled labor migration • Environmental change and migration • Integration issues in host communities • KNOMAD Thematic Working Groups • Mobilizing other diaspora resources • Demography and migration • Policy and institutional coherence • Migrant rights and social aspects • Remittances

  31. Thematic Working Groups Data High-skilled labor migration Low-killed labor migration Integration issues in host communities Policy and institutional coherence Migration, security and development Migrant rights and social aspects of migration Demography and migration Remittances, incl. access to finance and capital markets Mobilizing diaspora resources Environmental change and migration Internal migration and urbanization

  32. Cross-cutting themes Monitoring and Impact Evaluation Capacity Building Gender Public perception and communication?

  33. Partnerships International and regional agencies Universities and research institutions Think tanks International Initiatives Networks Civil Society

  34. Outputs A menu of policy choices Analytical research products Policy briefs Operational toolkits, fact books Web-based anthologies, archives, blogs Few pilot projects and capacity building activities

  35. Time line Inception phase (ending March 2013) Implementation phase (April 2013-Dec 2017) Evaluation – 2016 Pilot projects – 2016-17 Exit

  36. How might KNOMAD contribute to the Post-2015 development agenda?

  37. Data and other resources are available at www.worldbank.org/migration www.knomad.org

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