Climate Change Adaptation Around the Baltic Sea – A Policy perspective

1. Climate Change Adaptation Around the Baltic Sea – A Policy perspective ASTRA Conference on Climate Change Adaptation and Flood Risks in Coastal Areas Gdansk, 26 October 2006 Lasse Peltonen, CURS/ Helsinki U of Technology

2. Content of presentation • What is Policy? • Adaptation policy addresses vulnerabilities • Adaptation Policy Framework – How to construct a climate adaptation policy? • Relevant EU policies • Observations and examples from the BSR • Conclusions

3. What is a Policy?

4. Policy, politics, polity • POLITY – political system, institutional arrangements, constitution. E.g. representative democracy • POLITICS – political struggle over goals, political action. E.g. ”power politics” • POLICY – programmes of action; A statement by government of what it intends to do, such as a law, regulation, ruling, decision, or order, or a combination of these E.g. Environmental policy, Social policy, Climate policy… adaptation policy?

5. Where do policies come from?The policy process view OUTPUTS NEEDS DEMANDS ISSUES DECISIONS 3. Decision making 2. Agenda setting 1. mobilization 4. Implementation

6. Climate Adaptation Policy… • …refers to actions gaken by governments including legislation, regulations, and incentives to mandate or facilitate changes in socio-economic systems aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change, including climate variability and extremes. • Changes can be made in practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes in climate Watson R.T. et al. (eds. ) (1996) Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change. Working group II, IPCC Second Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press

7. Climate Change, Including climate variability Limited, slower Countries, regions, cities, structures, Industries, organisations, homes, Individuals etc. characterized by their Vunerability Mitigation GHG reduction Planned Adaptation Resilience Policy Response

8. Adaptation policies address vulnerabilities

9. 1. Physical vulnerability

10. 2. Awareness as adaptive capacity

11. 3. Social vulnerability

12. 4. Institutional vulnerability School buses not used for evacuation

13. Adaptation Policy FrameworkHow to construct an adaptation policy?

14. Adaptation Policy Framework • Developed by the UNDP, mainly used in developing countries • Provides guidance on designing and implementing projects that reduce vulnerability to climate change and seeks to integrate national policy making efforts with a “bottom-up” movement

15. APF: 5 principles • Adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a developmental context; • Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events are explicitly included as a step toward reducing vulnerability to long-term change; • Adaptation occurs at different levels in society, including the local level; • The adaptation strategy and the process by which it is implemented are equally important; and • Building adaptive capacity to cope with current climate is one way of preparing society to better cope with future climate

16. APF Structure 1. Scope project 2. Assess current vulnerability 3. Characterize future climate-related risks Increase adaptive capacity Engagestakeholders 4. Develop adaptation strategy 5. Continue adaptation process

17. APF Policy Questions to ASTRA • What kind of policy instruments will reduce vulnerability to climate change? • What kind of policy decisions might be influenced by the project? • How might project results be introduced onto the local, or national policy agenda?

18. What policy development is taking place at the EU level?

19. EU Policies relevant for CC and regional planning • Water Framework Directive has potential but currently does not reflect flash floods, cities, nor integrated spatial planning concerns • Floods Directive  clear climate change link • Natura 2000 network & the Habitats Directive  moving ecosystems? need for a clear approach for the future in relation to adaptation • Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)  need to integrate CC • Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)  important tool with better integration of adaptation concerns in assessments • Structural Funds  new emphasis on risk reduction • The European Spatial Development Perspective and the related European Spatial Observation Network (ESPON)  ESPON 1.3.1 project on Natural Hazards • ICZM – development • ECCP II – European climate change programme phase II

20. How is the BSR prepared for present climate variability?

21. ASTRA Winter Storm Study • The Gudrun winter storm in January 2005: was an extreme weather event that affected almost all of the participating countries around the Baltic sea. • The storm was exceptional (extent, damages) for the Baltic Sea Region: fiercest event since 1969 • 17 people died, hundreds of thousands affected • Damages exceeding EUR 2.5 billion • Wide range of impacts in the BSR countries

22. Pärnu, Estonia Turku, Finland Differing effects

23. What is the current state of CC adaptation policies in the BSR?

24. Preliminary results from ASTRA (2) • Stakeholder survey (PIK): Stakeholders focused on climate change mitigation, lack of basic understanding of adaptation • Overview of national policies (ECAT): Policy focus is on mitigation, not adaptation. • Examples of sectoral policies exist related to climate variability • EU policy is pushing national governments forward (WFD, Floods Directive) • Only one national adaptation strategy identified (Finnish national CC adaptation strategy) (Developments in Germany and Denmark) • Climate change adaptation is not (yet) an ”umbrella concept”  measures may be planned, but not for CC adaptation (”autonomous adaptation”)

25. Example: Swedish EPA Vulnerability study • Some analysis of CC impacts exists, but little analysis on vulnerability and adaptation needs • Some actions identified related to present-day climate variability (e.g. dam safety) • With few exceptions, no concrete adaptation measures to the future climate were found • Uncertainty about responsibilities of different actors in relation to CC adaptation: no central authority responsible for adaptation • Importance of learning from extremes, • Importance of stakeholder dialogue; research & practice

26. Conclusions

27. Adaptation policy:How far are we? OUTPUTS WANTS DEMANDS ISSUES DECISIONS 3. Decision making 2. Agenda setting 1. mobilization 4. Implementation Varies according to sector & region!

28. Adaptation policy:How far are we? Are processes systematic? 1. Scoping More focus on event and impacts than vulnerability? 2. Assess current vulnerability 3. Characterize future climate-related risks Resolution & scale issues Increase adaptive capacity Engagestakeholders 4. Develop adaptation strategy Almost no examples! 5. Continue adaptation process Hopefully before 2100

29. Conclusions • Adaptation policy is a very new, emerging policy field (we are filling an institutional void!) • Adaptation policy addresses vulnerabilities • Adaptation policy framework: solid principles for BSR adaptation policy development • Need for further policy analysis: differentiation between governance levels, actors, kinds of intervention • Develop indicators for policy development • Need for a holistic multi-level multi-stakeholdergovernance perspective

30. Kiitos! Thank you! Lasse Peltonen Centre for Urban and Regional Studies P.O.Box 9300, 02015 Helsinki University of Technology Tel. +358-9-4514082 Fax. +358-9-4514071 lasse.peltonen@tkk.fi http://www.tkk.fi/Units/Separate/YTK/index.html