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Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply

Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply. Jack Forster (DECC). Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply. Talk is framed around informing policy through improved methodology Where did we start?

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Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply

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  1. Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply Jack Forster (DECC)

  2. Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply • Talk is framed around informing policy through improved methodology • Where did we start? • How did we improve this to help inform policy on gas infrastructure resilience? • Where do we want to take this in the future?

  3. Where did we start? • Previous analysis on physical gas flows across Europe • Gas map (gas flows in/out of EU Member States) • Bubble chart showing self-sufficiency, relative consumption and diversity of imports (IEA data)

  4. Where did we start?

  5. What are the important questions? • Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to policy colleagues and economists • What did they want to know? • How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? • How many pipelines/storage sites etc. are there? • How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? • How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?

  6. How did we address these questions? • Comparative infrastructure assessment • What are the sources of gas supply? • Pipeline imports • LNG terminal imports • Gas storage supply • Indigenous production • Universal metric required for these imports • Data needs to be available

  7. How did we address these questions? • Universal metric = Peak flow (PF) • Peak flow = maximum output from pipeline in volume per time (bcmper day) • Can be summed by source and by country • Allows comparison across EU Member States • Can be compared to peak demand • Easy to understand

  8. How did we address these questions?

  9. How did we address these questions? • Chart is useful illustrative tool but does not act as a metric for comparison • We used a simple PF - 1, PF - 2 metric • Similar to N-1 measure in EU Regulation No.994/2010 therefore familiar to Policy

  10. How did we address these questions? Where: PF = Peak Flow (bcm/day) EPmax = Peak capacity of entry points (bcm/day) Pmax = Peak capacity for each indigenous production pipeline (bcm/day) Smax = Peak output for each storage facility (bcm/day) LNGmax = Peak output for each LNG terminal (bcm/day) Dmax = Average 2012 peak gas demand (bcm/day) Imax = Peak daily capacity of single largest supply route (bcm/day)

  11. How did we address these questions?

  12. How did we address these questions? • How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? • UK has a range of gas sources • Peak supply able to meet peak demand twice over in 2012, even after removal of two largest gas supplies • How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? • Sixth most resilient Member State (PF-1, PF-2) • UK has most diverse range of sources • UK has less storage than other top 5 gas demanding Member States

  13. What are the important questions? • Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to Policy colleagues and economists • What did they want to know? • How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? • How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? • How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?

  14. How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? • So far, we have looked at within-country infrastructure disruptions • What about EU-wide supply disruptions? • European gas supply 2012 • 24% from Russia (116 bcm) • 21% from Norway (102 bcm) • 8% North Africa (Algeria, Libya) • 12% LNG (77 bcm, Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria) • Clear risks here

  15. UKRAINE 121.0 19.4 53.2

  16. How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? EU MS A Supply country EU MS B EU MS D Supply country EU MS C LNG

  17. How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? • With the loss of a supply route, how much spare capacity is there in the system? • Gas sources • Max flow • Connections between countries • Time of year (demand, storage) • Can we model this system?

  18. How resilient is the UK/EU in case of future major supply loss?

  19. Conclusions • We now have good understanding of within-EU Member State infrastructure resilience, and appropriate methodology for a cross-country comparison of resilience • Much improved on previous work in terms of informing policy • Looking to the future, we need to examine EU-wide supply disruptions: this is the hot topic

  20. Conclusions

  21. Initial Results

  22. Initial Results

  23. Initial Results: German Gas Supply (No Russian Gas)

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