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African Oil and Gas Supply Potential

African Oil and Gas Supply Potential. Lauren Mayne Energy Information Administration. Oil and Gas Roundtable ABA Spring Conference. April 17, 2009 Washington, DC. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type. 33%. History. Projections. 29%. 36%. Liquids. 24%. 27%. Natural Gas. Coal.

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African Oil and Gas Supply Potential

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  1. African Oil and GasSupply Potential Lauren Mayne Energy Information Administration Oil and Gas Roundtable ABA Spring Conference April 17, 2009 Washington, DC

  2. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 33% History Projections 29% 36% Liquids 24% 27% Natural Gas Coal 23% 8% Renewables 8% 6% Nuclear 6% Source: EIA, IEO2008

  3. Africa’s Share of the World Liquids Market Proved Reserves of Crude Oil, 2009 Production of Conventional Liquids, 2007 Source: EIA, Oil & Gas Journal

  4. Country Share of Africa Proved Reserves of Crude Oil, 2009 Production of Conventional Liquids, 2007 Source: EIA, Oil & Gas Journal

  5. Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Nigeria Source: EIA

  6. Events and Potential: Nigeria • Recent Events • Attacks in deepwater • Downside Risks • Violence in the Delta could continue and expand into deepwater locations • Financial management at NNPC could deteriorate further • Upside Potential • Nigerian government might implement policies that reduce violence in the Delta

  7. Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Algeria Source: EIA

  8. Events and Potential: Algeria • Recent Events • Gas discoveries and downstream projects • Downside Risks • Government could further discourage foreign investment, as it did with the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law • Sonatrach’s ability to invest in production maintenance and expansion could be hindered due to competing government expenditure needs • Upside Potential • Government could reverse nationalization tendencies expressed in the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law

  9. Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Angola Source: EIA

  10. Events and Potential: Angola • Recent Events • More discoveries of oil resources in the deepwater • Downside Risks • Increased pressure to adhere to OPEC quotas and cuts • Upside Potential • Possibility of sub-salt oil resources • Continued loose abidance to OPEC quotas

  11. Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Libya Source: EIA

  12. Events and Potential: Libya • Recent Events • Discoveries in Area 47 • Push for use of domestic workforce • Downside Risks • New requirements to use domestic engineers could exceed IOC’s abilities to train them and lead to progressively worst reservoir management • Upside Potential • Transfer of skills and technologies to Libya could advance NOC’s capabilities and encourage continued IOC & NOC partnerships

  13. Conclusions • African production is concentrated in a few key countries • Africa has the oil resources to support future production growth • Future production will depend largely on above ground factors, such as fiscal regimes and legislation

  14. Additional Slides • Country Sheets

  15. Algeria Downside Risks & Upside Potential • Government could further discourage foreign investment, as it did with the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law • Sonatrach’s ability to invest in production maintenance and expansion could be hindered due to competing government expenditure needs • Government could reverse nationalization tendencies expressed in the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law

  16. Nigeria Downside Risks & Upside Potential • Violence in the Delta could continue and expand into deepwater locations • Financial management at NNPC could deteriorate further • Nigerian government might implement policies that reduce violence in the Delta

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